The CPR Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment is pleased to announce that the editorial board of Environmental Research Letters has recognized 'India's Energy and Emissions Future: An Interpretive Analysis of Model Scenarios' by Navroz K. Dubash, Radhika Khosla, Narasimha D. Rao and Ankit Bhardwaj as the 2018 recipient of its Best 'Emerging Regions' Article.
This journal article finds that a doubling of India’s emissions from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound for emissions in 2030, and that this increase is consistent with India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. To arrive at these results, the authors interpreted several leading studies on India's projected emissions in the context of the country’s energy needs for development, and recent policy trends in the sector.
From Dubash et al (2018). Annual emissions from energy projections for India in 2030. As explained in this blog in Carbon Brief, studies with similar policy assumptions were clustered together in terms of emissions and economic growth projections.
The authors find that India’s emissions from energy will grow to 3.8 - 3.9 gigatonnes (Gt), or 91 - 98% above 2012 levels by 2030. Because of its low emissions starting point, even after this increase, India's 2030 per capita emissions will be below the 2018 global average, and absolute emissions will be less than half of China's 2015 emissions from the same sources.
Read more about India's energy and emissions futures:
- India’s emissions will double at most by 2030 I Carbon Brief
- Understanding India’s energy and emissions future I Ideas for India
- India could meet its Paris climate pledge I Physics World
- India's Carbon-Dioxide Emission To Rise 3.8-3.9 Gigatonnes by 2030: Study I NDTV
- India’s CO2 emissions could double by 2030 I Live Mint
The views shared belong to individual faculty and researchers and do not represent an institutional stance on the issue.