What should India submit as its “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” (INDC) for the Paris climate negotiations?
How do we ensure that our INDC simultaneously promotes development objectives, is politically strategic, and analytically robust?
The Centre for Policy Research (CPR), along with our partner the Prayas (Energy Group), held a roundtable workshop on these questions, on February 18th, 2015.
The rationale for the workshop is that India has a number of past and recent studies that are informing INDC discussions, but there has been inadequate comparative analysis and strategic reflection, as yet, on the range of possible results and the range of inputs. What, for example, do the different studies project as the possible range of India’s future emissions intensity? What assumptions about India’s development and energy future are required to make projections, and how sensitive are outcomes to these assumptions? These are important inputs to India’s policy making if the INDC is to meet the criteria of being development focused, politically strategic and analytically robust.
To assist discussion, CPR presented an analytical work that compares and synthesizes existing studies, and suggest elements of an INDC going forward. The workshop participants included government officials, researchers, business and NGO stakeholders. The purpose of the workshop was to resent the drat analyses for review and feedback.
This workshop is part of a larger collaboration between CPR and the Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Energy Research Centre, South Africa, in partnership with the Prayas (Energy Group). The objective of the collaboration is to develop the analytical base for energy planning in India that addresses the multiple objectives of growth, equity and environmental sustainability, and does so in an open, transparent and deliberative fashion. Such an approach to energy planning should logically form the basis for any international climate statement.
The key points covered in the presentations made by CPR and IIASA are as follows:
- The coverage of multiple objectives across different studies
- The range of outcomes for annual emissions, emissions per capita, emissions intensity, final energy demand, total primary energy supply and electricity generation by fuel mix
- The impact of underlying assumptions on the range of outcomes from studies
- The relationship between actual trends in the past years and the projections made by different studies
- The availability and extent of input parameters specified in the studies
- Inconsistencies in costs and GDP loss accruing from different low carbon scenarios
- The essential requirements for using models to inform policy – including transparency, consistency in scenario development and clarity on representation of outcomes.
- The use of modelling studies to inform India INDCs in the coming months