Part-1: CPR-Lokniti-CSDS Discussion on 'Opening the Black Box of Election Polling and Forecasting'

15 March 2019

Watch the full video (above) of the CPR-Lokniti-CSDS Discussion on 'Opening the Black Box of Election Polling and Forecasting' as part of the ‘Conversations on Indian Democracy’ series. The discussion featured Sanjay Kumar, Yashwant Deshmukh and Pradeep Bhandari and was moderated by Rahul Verma. 

With elections only a few months away and the campaign trail heating up, the discussion aimed to de-mystify the process of election polling and seat forecasting in India. The panel brought together psephologists and pollsters who broke down exactly what goes into making an election poll - from sample size to poll design to actual analysis.

Sanjay Kumar is Director of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. Yashwant Deshmukh is the Founder-Director of CVoter International. Pradeep Bhandari is the Founder-CEO of Jan Ki Baat. Rahul Verma is a Fellow at CPR. 

This was the first panel organised as part of the discussion on 'Opening the Black Box of Election Polling and Forecasting’. The video of the second panel can be accessed here.

Rahul Verma wrote a chapter titled ‘Elections, Exit Polls and the Electronic Media’ in the book, ‘The Great March of Democracy: Seven Decades of India's Elections’ edited by S Y Quraishi. The chapter discusses the typology of election-related surveys, reviews the status of opinion polls from a historical perspective, and addresses some of the criticisms leveled against election surveys. 

About the Series:

This panel discussion was jointly hosted by the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) and Lokniti-CSDS, and it is the first in a series of events in the run-up to 2019 elections. This collaborative series between the two research institutions - 'Conversations on Indian Democracy' - aims to make academic research more accessible to the general public. 

The views shared belong to individual faculty and researchers and do not represent an institutional stance on the issue.