Industrial Policy and Prospects 2001 A.D.

Industrial Policy and Prospects 2001 A.D.

By P D Malgavkar

Industrial growth is a complex phenomenon and depends upon a host of factors.  It is susceptible to financial and fiscal policies, social and political environment, international conditions, developments in other sectors of economy, etc. The present study restricts itself to the study of the industrial policy instruments and their impact on industrial sector.

Besides projecting industries sector, the study looks at the employment prospects in the year 2001, taking into consideration the population in the working age group and the labour force in the year 2001. The study suggests that in the year 2001 only 10 per cent of the people could be below the poverty line with the envisaged growth rate; and that non-renewable resources and energy may not be the constraints  for development.  The major area of concern would be water whose  total precipitation  over  the sub- continent  is finite whilst regional  water shortages  seem  to be inevitable  and are likely to increase, particularly  in the arid and semi-arid  areas.

The study concludes that though the per capita GDP of India would be small compared to the developed and affluent world, India will have the satisfaction  to have moved  out from the rank of low-income  to middle-income  countries  and that it would have  a more healthy,  and educated  population, with bright  possibilities of reaching a net reproduction  rate of one in the near future,  its saving  rate  would be high, its ICOR would be reasonable,  its technological progress satisfactory and it would be well poised to achieve  accelerated  progress and development.

P D Malgavkar started his career as a businessman, changed over to academics from where he joined the tribe of Government bureaucrats. Restless as ever, he had a stint as Research Consultant and Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu. Back home in 1978, as Visiting professor at Centre for policy Research, New Delhi, he concentrated on development issues as he saw them.