Informing India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Policy Lessons from Modelling Studies
What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution (or ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contribution’ (INDC))? Since energy accounts for 77% of India’s greenhouse gas emissions, this question can only be answered as one part of a larger discussion about India’s energy future.
This study conducts a comparative review of seven recent India-focused modelling studies that explore Indian energy and emissions futures, with the explicit intention of informing several policy salient questions.
Some key results that emerge include:
- India is projected to double or triple carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 under reference cases, but per capita emissions will still be less than today’s global average;
- Coal use under reference cases could rise as much as 2.5-3 times current levels;
- Fossil-fuel free share of electricity in reference cases could also rise as high as 31% of the electricity mix, but could also fall from current levels;
- Current studies provide an insufficiently robust basis for determining an economy-wide INDC for India, nor do they adequately address sustainable development outcomes;
- Future energy and climate planning would be enhanced by a long-term, structured process involving policy-makers and modellers.
Navroz K Dubash, Radhika Khosla, Narasimha D Rao, and K Rahul Sharma "Informing India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Policy Lessons from Modelling Studies.” Research Report (New Delhi: Centre for Policy Research and Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, April 2015).