Informing India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Policy Lessons from Modelling Studies

By Navroz K Dubash, Radhika Khosla, Narasimha D Rao, and K Rahul Sharma
30 April 2015

What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution (or ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contribution’ (INDC))? Since energy accounts for 77% of India’s greenhouse gas emissions, this question can only be answered as one part of a larger discussion about India’s energy future. 

This study conducts a comparative review of seven recent India-focused modelling studies that explore Indian energy and emissions futures, with the explicit intention of informing several policy salient questions. 

Some key results that emerge include:

  • India is projected to double or triple carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 under reference cases, but per capita emissions will still be less than today’s global average;
  • Coal use under reference cases could rise as much as 2.5-3 times current levels;
  • Fossil-fuel free share of electricity in reference cases could also rise as high as 31% of the electricity mix, but could also fall from current levels;
  • Current studies provide an insufficiently robust basis for determining an economy-wide INDC for India, nor do they adequately address sustainable development outcomes;
  • Future energy and climate planning would be enhanced by a long-term, structured process involving policy-makers and modellers.

 

Navroz K Dubash, Radhika Khosla, Narasimha D Rao, and K Rahul Sharma "Informing India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Policy Lessons from Modelling Studies.” Research Report (New Delhi: Centre for Policy Research and Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, April 2015).

 

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