Watch the full video (above) of the discussion on ‘Analysing the 2019 Jharkhand Assembly Election Results’ featuring Rahul Verma (Fellow, CPR); Neelanjan Sircar (Senior Visiting Fellow, CPR and Associate Professor, Ashoka University); Gilles Verniers (Co-director, Trivedi Centre for Political Data, Ashoka University) and moderated by Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR).
The politics team at CPR presented a detailed analysis of the election result, which was followed by a wider panel discussion.
The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS
Rahul Verma writes in explaining the negative vote swing against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the last six months. Verma highlights that the party shouldn't impose leaders with no mass base; must address the economy; and should be prepared for a tough poll cycle ahead. Addressing the loss of Raghubhar Das, he writes that ‘when an incumbent chief minister loses along with many of his cabinet colleagues there's a straightforward interpretation of the mandate. Voters have outrightly rejected the existing government.’ Verma further elucidates the need for the opposition to create and campaign on an alternative ideological vision to challenge the BJP’s hegemonic position.
- Urban-rural divide, disgruntled regional allies sparked poll reversal in Jharkhand by Neelanjan Sircar
Neelanjan Sircar writes in highlighting that the BJP cannot disregard its coalition partners to win at the state level, despite its national dominance. He analyses reasons behind the party’s poor performance in Scheduled Tribe and urban areas. Further he writes, ‘it is time for serious introspection for the party, as it heads into important contests in Delhi and Bihar.’
- BJP can continue with its ideological projects, but they won’t work until Modi govt fixes economy by Rahul Verma
Rahul Verma writes in Talkpoint by ThePrint about whether the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine is no longer a decisive factor in state elections. Verma writes that while the Modi-Shah duo is still by far the best election team any party can hope for, of late, the BJP has been witnessing electoral reversals at the state level. He highlights that the party is now contesting as an incumbent party and voters are judging it by its performance. In addition, the party is not following the coalition dharma, forcing smaller parties to come together for survival. Lastly, Verma points to the unprecedented economic slowdown, highlighting that until the Modi government does not fix the economy, its ideological projects will not work.