Author: cprindia

As Budget 2018 was announced by the Union government on 1 February, find below a curated analysis by CPR faculty.

• Yamini Aiyar writes in Live Mint  that while the budget is a new and evolving political statement, it is unlikely to improve Indians’ ‘ease of living’.
• Kiran Bhatty writes in The Wire  that even though education is mentioned as a priority area in the Budget is an improvement, the averments are not matched by a commensurate allocation of resources.
• Yamini Aiyar and Avani Kapur write in The Wire  that, even as schemes have received minimal allocations, this budget signals an important shift in the political narrative.
• Avani Kapur writes in IndiaSpend  on how the ‘pro-poor’ messaging around the budget does not add up to the numbers, indicating a decline in funding for programmes for the poor.
• In an interview  with The Wire, Yamini Aiyar discusses the implications of the budget on India’s social sector spending.
• In the Deccan Herald, Avani Kapur takes a closer look at the Budget 2018 and critical questions on social sector allocations.
• Sanjoy Hazarika writes in Economic Times on why the Budget 2018 is a missed opportunity for Modi’s ‘Act East’ policy.

The year 2021 promises to be a blockbuster for global climate politics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release its report this year, updated national pledges on emission limits are expected, and all this is on the table at a climate Conference of Parties in the United Kingdom (UK) in November. Not least, a re-invigorated Joe Biden-led United States (US) has placed the climate crisis near the top of its foreign policy agenda.

There is plenty at stake for India, including diplomatic, economic and climate outcomes. There is global pressure on India to telegraph its intentions as early as the US-hosted Climate Leaders Summit in April, or a UK-hosted G-7 Summit in June.

What should India say, and do? We are pleased to share a new two-part series in the Hindustan Times by Navroz K. Dubash which outlines a new approach to Indian climate policy, action, and leadership. We also include links to relevant blog posts, and selected quotes in the press.

In the Hindustan Times:

Part 1: Net-zero emission targets are a hollow pledge

By Navroz K. Dubash

India needs to define its climate policies in ways that meet diplomatic, developmental and climate interests simultaneously. A net-zero pledge by 2050, particularly if bound in law, would likely win us diplomatic credit, but will risk our development future, and ironically, may not, in practice, accelerate our transition to a low-carbon future.

Part 2: Proposing a new climate agenda for India

By Navroz K. Dubash

In India, a focus on development pathways requires three steps: sectoral transition plans for key areas of the economy; strong institutions for climate governance; and economy-wide targets that emphasise near-term actions.

In Environmentality, a blog by the Centre for Policy Research:

Blog: Should India consider a net-zero climate pledge?

By Navroz K. Dubash

Instead of uncritically joining the net-zero bandwagon, India could usefully advocate broadening of what counts as desirable climate action to include not just ambition, but also implementation.

Excerpt: Durable national institutions for climate governance

By Navroz K. Dubash 
In a recent contribution to MIT Technology Review, Dubash highlights the role of institutions in our collective response to climate change.

Quick Takes in the Press

• “We don’t know exactly how we will do it and what are the potential trade-offs with development objectives. […] For countries such as India, the most important thing is to achieve the greatest development for the fewest additional emissions,” says Dubash. “Instead of setting a distant net-zero goal, India should figure out ways to avoid locking in high-carbon infrastructure.” In Bloomberg on March 17.
• “A climate change commission is useful, but not one articulated solely or even mostly around carbon budgets,” says Dubash. “Meeting carbon budgets does not animate Indian politics and policy, transformational sectoral change does.” In Climate Home News on March 18.
• “For the industrialised countries, the language of net zero seems to be very big. But I would welcome them telling us what that translates to in the next 10 years, and how are you going to get there? While we talk about an ‘ambition gap’ regarding emissions reductions,” says Dubash, “we also need to address the ‘implementation gap.'” In Mint Lounge on March 19.
• “I’m completely in favor of having a focal point for global policy, but I sometimes worry that the tail shouldn’t wag the dog here,” says Dubash. “We want to not just have countries saying that they’re going to do something very progressive, we want to have hard evidence that they will actually do it.” In Lights On: The Weekend Read on February 21.

With growing tensions between India and China, which reached a critically low point with the prolonged military stand-off at Doklam in the summer of 2017, the ‘informal’ summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping held on 27-28 April, 2018, raised considerable interest. Especially since Jinping invited Modi to his hometown in China in an unprecedented manner. CPR faculty analyse the summit and the way forward in the curated media commentary below.

• Shyam Saran writes in the Scroll that the summit indicates that ‘Doklam may have triggered a rethink on India-China relations going beyond tactical compulsions.’ According to Saran, even though the summit is a response to ‘growing uncertainty in both the regional geopolitical landscape in Asia and the world’, it is only likely to provide a ‘brief breathing space’ to India, unless India builds up her economic and military abilities rapidly.
• Zorawar Daulet Singh published a series of articles and appeared in media interviews on the summit. In The Hindu, he writes that the summit is ‘a mutual recognition in both India and China that a posture of hostility has undermined their interests.’ He reiterates this in an interview for The Wire, also unpacking in detail how the geopolitical uncertainty negatively impacted both countries at different levels spurring this course correction, even though it may not mean the end of all hostilities. He also made a television appearance on CGTN America, one of the international language channels run by Chinese state broadcaster, and wrote in Hindi in Live Hindustan.
• G Parthasarathy writes in The Hindu Business Line that the Wuhan summit has come in the wake of growing international pressures on China, and India must use the opportunity to resolve border issues and secure market access, while continuing to strengthen its military preparedness.

The Narendra Modi government recently delivered the 2019 interim budget. As the last budget before the Lok Sabha elections, it included various pre-poll promises and big announcements such as a pension programme for workers, an income support scheme for farmers and tax rebate for middle class taxpayers. While the budget was criticised for being populist, it is also necessary to examine how it impacts key areas of concern such as health, unemployment, and education, especially in a post-demonetisation and GST economy. In this curated media commentary below, CPR faculty analyse the 2019 Interim Budget.

• Yamini Aiyar comments in the ‘Hindustan Times ’ on the politics of the interim budget 2019 and the long term implications of the shift towards income transfers as a model for welfare.
• Avani Kapur of the Accountability Initiative  at CPR writes in ‘IndiaSpend ’ that a look at the government’s financial commitments to the social sector suggests that ‘it still has no clear idea on how to realise its vision.’ Kapur compares allocations for flagship welfare schemes between 2018-19 and the latest interim budget and finds that rural development, health and maternal welfare schemes have been underfunded. She further reiterates this in ‘Deccan Herald ’ highlighting that ‘the Budget speech also made no mention of education.’ Kapur writes in ‘ThePrint ’ that despite a focus on rural development, allocations in this area saw a marginal increase. She also appeared on an interview with ‘The Wire ’ discussing the health budget and how Ayushman Bharat got a silent boost.
• Kiran Bhatty writes in ‘The Wire ’ about how how critical areas of education and unemployment were left out of the interim budget. She highlights how the vision of the government ‘systematically excludes the poorest and most marginalised and avoids confronting one of the biggest crisis in the economy: that of employment and the employability (and education) of the youth.’

The Upper and Lower Houses of the Indian Parliament recently passed the The Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB). The Bill seeks to fast track citizenship for persons belonging to specified minority communities, namely Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians from a specified list of neighbours – Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The passing of the Bill led to protests across the country, particularly in the northeast. In this curated media commentary below, scholars at CPR unpack the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), examine reasons behind why it is being met by such opposition and shed light on what the Act means for notions of citizenship and who is an ‘Indian’.

• Assam, Northeast India and the ‘unfinished business’ of Partition by Sanjib Baruah

Sanjib Baruah writes in Frontline about how the CAB marks a historic departure from India’s long-standing disavowal of the Two Nation Theory – the narrative behind the creation of Pakistan. Baruah highlights that the CAB radically changes the meaning of Indian citizenship and introduces a distinction between Hindu and Muslim immigrants crossing Partition borders.

• Could CAB Trauma Have Been Avoided Through Sustained Dialogue? by Sanjoy Hazarika

Sanjoy Hazarika writes in The Quint about how the CAB’s ad hoc approach ignores complexities, calling for introspection, immense patience and dialogue. Hazarika underscores that the Bill ‘scraps’ the 1985 Assam Accord, an agreement that brought an end to a six-year agitation, which had taken thousands of lives, disrupted the economy, and toppled several state governments.

• CAB’s Can Of Worms Has Left Even Hindus Unsure Of Their Future by Sanjoy Hazarika

Sanjoy Hazarika writes in Outlook India about why Assam and adjoining states in the northeast have erupted in protest against the CAB. Hazarika points that much anger was simmering after the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam turned up an ‘excluded list’ of 1.9 million (majority of whom were Hindu and remain unsure of their future). The CAB appeared to be dismissive of Assam’s concerns with several fearing that granting citizenship to people who have come illegally over the decades from Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan could change the state’s demography. Hazarika questions the possibility of the CAB triggering violence against minority groups in other countries whom India seeks to protect, highlighting that ‘asserting the trinity of liberty, equality and inclusivity could help even at this very late hour’.

• Assam and the CAB: Go beyond damage control, listen to the people by Sanjoy Hazarika

Sanjoy Hazarika writes in CNBCTV18 analysing the situation in Assam. He points that while the CAB and NRC are different exercises and will be rolled out that way in other parts of the country – the same isn’t true for Assam or other northeastern states. Hazarika writes that ‘the doors to dialogue must be kept open and those opposing the government and its plans must do so peacefully, constitutionally and democratically’.

• BJP’s hegemony and party structure spark concerns. But its power is fragile by Neelanjan Sircar

Neelanjan Sircar writes in Hindustan Times about the similarities between today’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress under Indira Gandhi in the 60s and 70s. Sircar highlights that while the BJP looks like it will be in control for the foreseeable future, politics can change in a moment’s time, with one rarely seeing the downfall coming. He writes, ‘when people are angry and frustrated enough, no amount of social control can hem them in’.

• In defence of Indian secularism by Yamini Aiyar

Yamini Aiyar writes in Hindustan Times about how India is weakened when secularism is threatened, threatening the country’s multiple identities. She writes, ‘the real challenge that protests and resistance to the CAA and NRC face today is that they are bereft of a vocabulary to defend secularism’s cause even though it is the threat to secularism that sparked these protests’. Aiyar stresses on the urgent need for India to wrest and reclaim secularism, anchoring it in a new vocabulary that redeems its credibility.

• The citizenship bill must be opposed by Yamini Aiyar

In October 2019, Yamini Aiyar wrote in Hindustan Times about how given the import of the CAB, real resistance to the Bill necessitates a robust defence of secularism. She highlights that the failure of the Opposition to mobilise political resistance to the CAB is worrying, and has pushed secularism to the margins of our polity.

• Protesters’ fears about CAA founded on history, accumulated experience by Sanjib Baruah

Sanjib Baruah writes in Indian Express about the experiences of other countries that had, in the past, adopted an ideology-driven refugee policy. Baruah however laments that ‘our country’s current snap, uninformed, and policy-illiterate style of law-making does not allow for learning from the experience of others’. He states that those protesting against the law have just fears founded on history and past accumulated experience.

• How Democratic Processes Damage Citizenship Rights by Shylashri Shankar

Shylashri Shankar writes in Open, The Magazine how the CAA-NRC combine inflicts a deep wound on the Constitution’s fabric. She illustrates how the threat of these moves could play out by creating a fear psychosis among document-less Muslim citizens of India about their citizenship rights and about their ability to remain in their religion.

• Pak can leverage India’s citizenship move by G Parthasarathy

G Parthasarathy writes in The Hindu Business Line about how Pakistan can use the CAA to run down India in neighbouring Islamic countries and across its Indian Ocean neighbourhood. He highlights the need to acknowledge the adverse criticism from the media, think tanks and civil society organisations from across the world on developments in India, cautioning that ‘we should not take all criticism abroad as being deliberately, or maliciously, hostile’. He further stresses on the importance of ensuring that the population along the north-eastern borders are at peace with themselves and the rest of the country.

Citizenship (Amendment) Act: Some facts vs Mythbusters by Sanjoy Hazarika

Sanjoy Hazarika writes in The Economic Times about how answers given in government statements regarding the CAA have only muddled waters. While the government’s effort at reaching out those opposing the legislation is important, Hazarika writes, ‘this should have been done much earlier, when the build-up of support and opposition to the Act was clear’.

• [WATCH]: The Big Picture | Why is the Northeast angry? featuring Sanjoy Hazarika

In an episode of The Big Picture by Hindustan Times, Sanjoy Hazarika highlights reasons behind why the CAA has been met with sharp resentment in the northeast.

• [WATCH]: Government Clampdown on Protests: Intolerance of Dissent? featuring Yamini Aiyar

In an episode of The Big Fight by NDTV, Yamini Aiyar analyses the goverment’s reaction to the protests against the CAA and NRC. She highlights that the state as an entity has always had a monopoly over violence but India holds on to its democracy very closely and dearly, and hence whenever the state pushes the envelope and uses violence, people come out on the street to protect their rights. Aiyar says that this is a testament to both democracy and to the insecurity of the state. She further cautions that playing with the secular core of the country will result in deep division.

• [INTERVIEW]: ‘The core problem, the core challenge is in Assam’ featuring Sanjoy Hazarika

In an interview with Rediff.com, Sanjoy Hazarika sheds light on the fears of the northeast with respect to the CAA. Hazarika says, ‘the reaction to CAA is the resentment of people that they really have not been consulted on this, that their concerns have not been taken into consideration’. He further says that the government must never close the door on dialogue.

• The assertion of Indian federalism gives hope by Yamini Aiyar

Yamini Aiyar writes in Hindustan Times several states are opposing the CAA, thus taking a stand against the BJP’s majoritarian push. She calls the protests against the CAA-NRC combine ‘a reclamation of India’s pluralism’ and highlights that ‘it is through this reclamation that India’s federal aspiration is witnessing a resurgence.’ Aiyar however cautions that these early signs of resurgence must be viewed with cautious optimism. She analyses that the BJP is likely to harden its ideological stance and deepen its centralising instincts in the fiscal and administrative arena, leaving states with little room for manoeuvre, given the resistance it is facing. Further, ‘states will have to take a principled stance against the BJP’s attempts to consolidate majoritarian identity, and articulate a convincing ideological alternative anchored in federalism and secularism even as it risks vote banks.’

• An (Un)Enlightened Sadhguru in King Modi’s Court by Rajshree Chandra

Rajshree Chandra writes in The Wire about Jaggi Vasudev Sadhguru’s defence of the CAA-NRC combine. She highlights that his speech contained several untruths and writes ‘he missed facts, history and law, and he missed their connections. But above all he missed what he beseeches us all to have – compassion.’ Chandra goes on to explain why the CAA and the NRC are discriminatory and highlights, ‘for someone who understands the law so insufficiently, Sadhguru really treads where angels fear to tread.’

• Fragmented Identities: (Re)living the ‘Partition’ Today by Asaf Ali Lone

Asaf Ali Lone writes in The Wire, examining the CAA-NRC combine through the lens of urbanisation, highlighting the intersection between identity, spaces, religion and politics. He writes, ‘the processes of ‘partition’ are witnessed in the everyday life of the ordinary Muslim resident of the city when a building, street, language, ritual or attire becomes associated exclusively with Muslim identity’. Lone highlights how the CAA and the NRC represent the lethal move to make India a Hindu rashtra, by weeding out Muslims. He further writes, that much depends on the ‘Hindu’ majority – whether it will say yes to a majoritarian consensus or not as the state cannot rule without it.

• India belongs to all by Shyam Saran

Shyam Saran writes in The Tribune about how the constitutional benchmarks India had set for itself are being questioned, derided and violated. He highlights that the CAA ‘announces an imagining of India starkly different from what the Constitution envisioned.’ Saran writes that ‘the alternative imagining of India is a country that privileges the adherents of the Hindu faith. It is based on the as yet untested assumption that an overarching Hindu identity, ranging across sectarian, caste, regional and linguistic differences can be constructed on a Hindu-Muslim binary.’ He highlights that government action must imbibe the spirit of the Indian Constitution, in the same spirit as the government’s slogan of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas’.

• The cost of the protests — for the BJP, and the State by Neelanjan Sircar

Neelanjan Sircar writes in Hindustan Times how the protests against the CAA-NRC combine have crossed a threshold and acquired a mass character, which will lead to an  economic impact, raising problems for the BJP. He highlights how Internet shutdowns and curfews cripple basic economic activities. Additionally, the costs of stationing police, paramilitary and military forces are very high. Sircar also points to the indirect costs that are more severe, which include a decrease in investments due to an unfavourable sentiment. He writes, ‘the ruling dispensation will need to start negotiating with its citizens, rather than ramming through big bang reforms, backed by repression.’

• Should look Indian, too by Shyam Saran

Shyam Saran writes in The Tribune about the incident in the Regional Passport Office, Chandigarh, where an official demanded ‘citizenship certificates’ of two young applicants as he thought they ‘looked Nepali’ and hence may not be Indian citizens. He observes that the citizenship prerequisite is being taken to an absurd level. Saran highlights that the State, in a democracy, has no right to make its citizens abject supplicants for what is their inherent right and thus cannot, in effect, put in place a system which in its practice puts the burden of proving citizenship on the citizen himself. He calls this an abdication of responsibility by the State. Saran calls for a genuine dialogue between the government and political parties, civil society, students and other segments of society to understand the widespread concerns that the recent legislation.

• CAA-led narrative on religious persecution ignores political specificity, nuance in neighbourhood by Sanjib Baruah

Sanjib Baruah writes in Indian Express about how ‘India’s new official narrative is, at complete variance with the understanding that has informed Indian foreign policy so far.’ He questions why India even bothered to intervene in the war of liberation if Hindus were equally persecuted in East Pakistan/Bangladesh both before and after it broke away from Pakistan. Baruah highlights that is not surprising that people in all three CAA-covered countries — including leaders of minority organisations — reject the new Indian narrative.

• Indians are reclaiming, and redefining, the idea of secularism by Yamini Aiyar

Yamini Aiyar writes in Hindustan Times about how through the protests against the CAA, secularism has found its way back into the public discourse as a constitutional value worth fighting for. She illustrates how ordinary individuals are finding ways to articulate what secularism means to them, on Delhi’s streets, giving the word a more robust meaning, one that has deep roots in everyday Indian life. Aiyar questions whether this spontaneous, protest-led reclamation of secularism holds the possibility of translating into a new politics, in the long term, especially given the failure of the Opposition to generate a new discourse around secularism and democracy. She writes, ‘what we are witnessing today is democracy in its truest sense. It may not disrupt the status quo immediately, but it holds the promise of a better future.’

• Love and Resistance in Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh by Sharonee Dasgupta and Fathima M

Sharonee Dasgupta and Fathima M write in The Daily Star, an account of their visit to Shaheen Bagh, a place that has become synonymous with resistance against the CAA-NRC combine.They write, ‘the most striking feature is perhaps the peaceful nature of the protests. Women there are well-informed about what they want and they stick to it. Their fight is with the ideology of fascism, not with individuals.’ Dasgupta and Fathima highlight how Shaheen Bagh will be remembered for its strength, tolerance and the subversion of stereotypes associated with minorities. Calling their trip educational and an eye-opening experience, they point out that it was a fierce reminder of the tenets of our constitution and the strength of our womenfolk.

The final list of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam was published in August this year. The objective of the list was to identify illegal immigrants in the state. On publication, it was discovered that nearly 2 million people have been excluded from the list, thus making them vulnerable to the threat of statelessness.

Scholars at CPR have closely followed the NRC exercise and analysed its implications. In July 2018, Honorary Research Professor, Sanjoy Hazarika, wrote in Economic & Political Weekly, about defining citizenship in Assam. He points that the publication of the NRC is unlikely to resolve the controversy over illegal immigration from Bangladesh, which spans over four decades. His article can be read here.

In the curated analysis below, CPR scholars unpack the implications of this exercise, raising critical questions about citizenship, rights and the role of bureaucracy:

• Remaking the idea of an Indian citizen by Yamini Aiyar

Yamini Aiyar writes in Hindustan Times about how the NRC has brought to light the challenges to the ‘construction of citizenship in contemporary India.’ Aiyar highlights that the NRC ‘is illustrative of the ways in which the politics of religion has increasingly begun to intersect with institutional processes to shape understandings of who is a ‘legal’ citizen.’ She states that the flawed NRC process has provided the political fuel to push the demand for The Citizenship Amendment Bill, a bill that can have dangerous consequences as it fundamentally remakes citizenship in India.

• How NRC is legitimising exclusion by Yamini Aiyar

In August 2018, Yamini Aiyar wrote in Hindustan Times about how the State’s excessive reliance on papers and documents for proving citizenship has become an instrument of state coercion and politically driven exclusion. Aiyar highlights how a combination of bureaucratic failure and vulnerability to corruption, made the NRC exercise arbitrary and disempowering.

• [WATCH]: National Register of Citizens: What it means for India | The Big Picture

Yamini Aiyar also appeared on an episode of Hindustan Times’ The Big Picture to discuss the various facets of the NRC exercise, including questions about the idea of Indian citizenship, politics of religion, judicial intervention and bureaucratic capacity.

• A more precarious citizenship by Sanjib Baruah

Sanjib Baruah writes in The Indian Express about how ‘defining hundreds and thousands of people living in the country as non-citizens will create a new form of precarious citizenship — people with fewer rights and entitlements.’ Baruah highlights that while India is unlikely to deport those who fail the NRC test, creation of such a citizenship is ‘uncharted and potentially dangerous territory for a democracy.’

• In Assam, basic dignity at stake by Sanjoy Hazarika

Sanjoy Hazarika writes in The Hindu about concerns over how the State government plans to solve the issue of stateless citizens after the NRC exercise. He questions if there is a detailed process in place while such individuals apply to tribunals and courts for relief, and how the government will deal with those who are declared non-citizens, especially if Bangladesh refuses to take them. Hazarika highlights that the basic dignity of the weak, voiceless and vulnerable is at stake, pointing out that ‘many of those who are off the list are poor, cannot afford lawyers and may not even know of their right to legal aid.’

• Untangling the knot of citizenship by Sanjoy Hazarika

In July 2018, Sanjoy Hazarika wrote in The Tribune about the implications of the NRC exercise post the publication of the second draft list. Hazarika highlights that ‘the Centre and the state have become unnerved by the specter of looming statelessness that they have neither the skills, understanding or will to deal with.’

• India’s citizenship question and the never-ending Assam imbroglio by Sanjoy Hazarika

Sanjoy Hazarika writes in Al Jazeera about how the campaign to update the NRC has upset everyone, including its proponents. He sheds light on the challenges that those who will have to seek legal recourse due to exclusion from the list will face, highlighting, ‘this is a thankless and frightening prospect of prolonged litigation for even the well-to-do, which a large number of those off the NRC are not. How will they sustain their lives and families, not just the litigation?’