Statement – 4th October 2024

We are deeply anguished by the commentary in the media casting aspersions on CPR’s integrity, objectivity and its commitment to engage with ideas that matter to the nation.

This reportage betrays ignorance of CPR’s provenance, its passion for evidence-based policy research, its rich traditions of accommodating multiple perspectives, promoting debates to inform policy thinking and shaping public discourse.

These qualities have built CPR’s reputation across the world for impartiality, probity and penchant for encouraging diverse views.

CPR has always strived to strengthen India and its institutional processes. We also take our obligation to promote public interest very seriously. We have already appealed against the allegations in the courts. We reaffirm our complete faith in the country’s judicial processes.

CPR Insights: Are Higher Wages Associated with More Contractualisation?

 

Source: https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/ASI%20Volume%20I%202021-22%20%20Final.pdf
(Table 4a)

The share of contract workers in organised Indian industry is rising relatively rapidly. From just under 22% percent in 2001-02, it has risen to over 40% in 2021-22.  But the share of contract workers differs across industries, from well over half in industries like beverages (54%) and the production of salt (67%) to less than one fifth in garments (12%) and textiles (18%).

This information can be found in the Annual Survey of Industries (the latest version being 2021-22) brought out by the Industrial Statistics wing of the National Statistical Office. There is also a lot of other information in the document, one of which is wages paid to the workers 

So, does the variation in the use of contract workers differ across industries because of the difference in cost of workers (wages) across them? The figure above plots the average annual worker wage (this includes both contractual and non-contractual workers) versus the extent of use of contract workers. As can be seen, the extent of contractualisation appears to rise with the increase in wages. This is to be expected if contract workers cost less than regular workers, with a rise in wages leads to substitution of regular workers by contract workers.  

Of course, there are many other factors that will determine the extent of contractualisation, which will emerge in a fuller analysis, e.g., the extent of embedded skills in workers. An industry where such worker-specific human capital is high will have more difficulty substituting regular workers by contract workers. Industries with such worker-specific human capital are also likely to pay workers more and this will lead to an association of higher wages with lower contractualisation, the opposite of the posited relationship. The fact that it is not evident may indicate that such effects may not have a strong impact.


 1. It should be noted that the inclusion of contract workers would reduce the average wage in industries with high share of contract workers and would bias the data against the hypothesis. The fact that the relationship remains evident despite this indicates a strong underlying relationship. Information on wages paid to contract workers is available in what is called the unit level data but accessing that is a too complicated an exercise for this blog, which focuses on readily available data. There are existing works that examine such data in detail, e.g. Singh, Bir (2023) India’s Informal Economy Contractual Labour in the Formal Manufacturing Sector Routledge, London.

Dhampur Diary 2: Changing Industrial Structure of a Small Town

CONTEXT

Four decades ago, I studied industries of Dhampur, a small town of about 29,000 inhabitants located in the rich agriculture region of western Uttar Pradesh, for my doctoral research. I revisited Dhampur in early 2024 with the intention of starting a longitudinal study of the same small town, which now has a population about 1 lakh and an area of 3.87 sq km. I was curious to know: How has the industrial structure of Dhampur town changed over 40 years? Have the industries in the town evolved in response to the change in demand and technology? Is there greater diversification in industrial production than before?

INDUSTRIAL LANDSCAPE

Industries often locate in the rural-agricultural areas adjacent to urban settlements, predominantly to get cheaper and larger parcels of land and also to benefit from the infrastructure and services of the town by remaining in close proximity to it. Therefore, I had considered industries located within the municipal area as well as in the rural areas falling within 5 km radius of the town as the industries of the Dhampur town at both points of time.

After extensive survey of industries conducted in Dhampur in the first half of 2024, it became clear that the industrial landscape of the town has gone through major transformation over the four decades. The fact that the total number of industrial units located in Dhampur increased from 43 in 1979-80 to 63 in 2023-24 didn’t appear to be a surprise. The new units being established in keeping with the increasing population size of the town conforms to an expected pattern of positive change over time. What was the real revelation is that, only 4 of the currently functioning industrial units have been in existence since 1979-80 and 59 are newly established units, which excludes some industrial units that may have opened and closed down during this long span of four decades that we do not have a record of. Such a large number of industrial units closing down and even a larger number of new units being set up is clear indicator of industrial vibrancy of a small town, which indicates the presence of a significantly large group of entrepreneurs who are able take risk to venture into new types of industrial production responding to the market demand as well as technological changes.

INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE

The major changes in the industrial structure of Dhampur town over four decades are summarized into the following four broad categories: industrial expansion, industrial decline, industrial transformation and emergence of new industries:

  1. Industrial Expansion: There are four groups of industries that show a notable increase in the number of units of production although the nature of manufacturing and processing that existed at these two time periods is significantly different. A part of this increase can also be contributed to some family-run businesses getting split into two independent units after division of joint families and their assets in the succeeding generations:

    i. Manufacture of food products: In 1979-80, 4 of the 9 food manufacturing industrial units were involved in grain and oil milling. In addition, there were 3 sugar and Khandsari (unrefined sugar and Gur making) units, and 2 ice factories. In 2023-24, of the 16 food producing industrial units, sugar and gur making continued to have a significant share of manufacturing space with 4 units, including the Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd., which also has Green Power, Ethanol, and Ethyl Acetate as its major allied products. Of the new industries that have come up in this category, 3 are making ice cream, 3 bakery products and Puri Namkeen making packaged snacks. All 4 of the earlier grain milling units have closed down whereas 2 new oil mills have come up, namely Bharat Food Products and Himalaya Enterprises. Other new kinds of food products include glucose syrup making by Gulfro Starch Sugar Pvt. Ltd., cashew nuts processing by Odisha Food Products, and animal feed processing by Kisan Agro Foods.

    The Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd. established in 1933 continues to be the leading industrial unit in the town. It also increased its annual sugar production manifold from 0.29 lakh tons in 1979-80 to 3.06 lakh tons in 2023-24, while bringing the number of workers employed on a regular basis down from 1268 in 1979-80 to 1181 in 2023-24 by investing in labor saving modern technology. Its transformation also includes closing down two of its subsidiary units producing Craft Paper and Straw Board that used its waste material or bagasse and diversification into the production of ethyl acetate and ethanol, bagasse-based production of renewable power, and country liquor at the present time.

    ii. Manufacture of metal products and parts: The number of industrial units in this group have increased from 7 to 15 during this period and which produce a range of iron products, such as utensils, other household items, large commercial pots and pans, door and window frames, parts of sugar crushers and mills machinery and agricultural implements. Increase in the number of units in this industry is also because of some families and businesses splitting and engaging in the production of the same kinds of goods as they have the required traditional skills to do so.

    iii. Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products: In 1979-80, there was only Dhampur Yeast Company that produced a chemical product. Of the 5 units currently producing chemicals, Dhampur Chemicals, a standalone subsidiary of Dhampur Sugar Mill, is the largest unit that produces Country Liquor. In addition, there are 2 soap and detergent making units, 1 fertilizer making and ARHL Chemical Works producing assorted chemicals.

    iv. Manufacture of wood and wood products except furniture: This type of industry is engaged in sawing and planing of wooden logs. In 1979-80, there was only one such unit by the name of Lala Janaki Sharan. This unit was split into two family-owned enterprises which are currently owned by his descendants Sushil Kumar and Sunil Kumar. One new unit has also been established called Shahid Hasan and Sons.

    2. Industrial decline: The groups of industries that have completely disappeared or significantly declined in number are:

    i. Manufacture of paper, paper products, printing and publishing: All 5 units that were found to be there at the earlier time of the study have closed down. These included the two sub-units of the Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd. producing Craft Paper and Straw Board as well as 3 printing presses, namely, National Printing Press, Singhal Press and Copy Manufacturing, and Bharat Press.

    ii. Manufacture petroleum and coal products; The 3 units involved in making coal cakes predominantly used as domestic fuel for Anghithis (coal cooking stove) have closed down, most probably due to easy accessibility to cheaper and cleaner gas stoves.

    iii. Manufacture of non-metallic minerals products: The number of units coming under this category has declined significantly from 7 in 1979-80 to 3 in 2023-24. Dharam Prakash Aggarwal & Sons making bricks continues to be in operation in present time. The only micro abrasive unit as well as all 3 lime producing units and 2 refined Sulphur rolls making units that existed in 1979-80 have closed down. The two newly established current units are: Surya Microns Pvt. Ltd. producing micro abrasives and Creative Concrete producing concrete blocks, and precast compound walls and cement grills.

    3. Industrial transformation: Though Manufacture of textiles shows a stable existence during this period in terms of almost the same number of operating units, but it has transformed in character from 5 small handloom producing units to 4 large cooperative structures subcontracting spinning, weaving to a number of household-based producers in the nearby villages, including Shri Gandhi Ashram Kendriya Vastra, Maanvi Khadi, Khadi Gramodyog Vikas Mandal and Khadi Gramodyog Ashram. Another example of industrial transformation is shifting from making traditional iron tools and cane crushers to manufacturing of other machinery and equipment including turbines, namely HR Engineering Works and MS Engineering Works. These two firms are also an example of the metal’s unit owned by Hazi Kadar Baksh Imamuddin in 1979-80 becoming two independent engineering works owned by their successors.

    4. Emergence of new industries: Of the 14 new types of industrial units that have been observed to emerge in 2024 survey, 4 are making wooden and steel furniture, 3 are manufacturing beverages, 2 are plastic bag making, 2 are rubber footwear making, 1 is making E-Rickshaws and parts, 1 is making electronic speaker and 1 is making electric bulbs and fans.

The industrial structure of Dhampur has indeed undergone a major transformation over the four decades, which further reinforces the industrial vibrancy argument of a small town.

Dhampur Diary 1: Vibrant Industrial Structure of a Small Town

CONTEXT

Four decades ago, I studied the industries of Dhampur, a small town located in the rich agriculture region of western Uttar Pradesh, for my doctoral research. I have revisited Dhampur in early 2024 with the intention of starting a longitudinal study of the same small town, which now has a population about one lakh and an area of 3.87 sq km. I was curious to know: How has the industrial structure of Dhampur town changed over 40 years? How many old industrial units are still functioning? Are there significant numbers of new industrial units? Can the industrial base of a small town be identified as stable, declining, transient or vibrant? 

TYPOLOGY

Longitudinal study of the industrial base of any settlement requires a theoretical framework defining broad topologies. The following four typologies that could well represent the trend in the changing industrial structure of any small town like Dhampur can be visualized as: 

  1. Stable: Same industrial units or the same type of industries operating over time even if the units are different.
  2. Declining: Some old industries close down and not many new come up.
  3. Transient: Short-lived industries keep coming up and closing down at a fast rate.
  4. Vibrant: Some old industries close down but several new industries come up responding to the changing market demand.

FINDING

The recent field visits to Dhampur have revealed that there is a major change in the industrial structure of the town, which can be summarized as follows: 

  • In 1979-80, there were 43 industrial units in Dhampur and their number appears to have increased to 63 in 2024, of which 4 are old industrial units that are still functioning and 59 are newly established units. A large number of industrial units closing down and even a larger number of new units being set up is indeed a phenomenal change in the industrial structure of the town that seems to efficiently respond to the market demand as well as technological changes. 
  • The net increase in the number of industrial units with the expanding town size in itself is an indicator of vibrancy in the industrial base of Dhampur, even if some industrial units may have been established and closed down during this long span of four decades that we do not have a record of.
  • Large numbers of new industrial units being set up and many of these units have been established by new entrepreneurs. This is also indicative of the existence of a strong entrepreneurial class of people in Dhampur that is quick to respond to changing demand for industrial products. 
  • Notably, the Dhampur Sugar Mill has not only continued to dominate the industrial scene of the town at both points of time, it has expanded significantly with about 16 times increase in its annual cane crushing capacity: from 2.38 lakh tons to in 1979-80 to 39.01 lakh tons in 2022-23. 

Therefore, Dhampur can be clearly identified as a small town with a vibrant industrial structure, anchored by a large sugar producing firm, which plays an important role in its economic growth. 

CPR Insights: Locating Water-centric Urban Planning and Governance

What do we mean by water-centric urban planning and governance? Urban water security challenges are no longer merely about access to water, but also coping with floods, water quality and other climate change induced risks. For some time, there has been a recognition that statutory urban planning needs to be re-imagined and that existing town and country planning (T&CP) laws and practices need to be reconsidered to address some of these complex challenges. The latter imperative has been further bolstered by NITI Aayog, which recommended forming an apex committee at the state level to undertake review of the existing T&CP laws and other relevant urban development legislation. In continuation, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) and its recent High-Level Committee (HLC) on Urban Planning have acknowledged that the current laws are inadequate, and there is a need for reconsidering the urban planning laws, frameworks, and practices to address contemporary needs and emerging risks. 

As a first step to addressing this, in this blog, we have attempted to locate the statutory urban planning instrument, the Master Plan, in the broader legal and institutional ecosystem of water governance. Given the attention Delhi’s water has received this summer, and with the flooding season upon us, we take up the case of Delhi Master Plan. In the diagram, we have mapped the relevant legal and institutional ecosystem of the Master Plan to get a sense of the complexity involved in pursuing water-centric urban planning in Delhi. The schematic diagram above reveals the multiple interactions and interlinkages of the Delhi Master Plan with other laws and institutions. This may not be exhaustive but provides an idea of what it means to pursue a water-centric Master Plan. Clearly, water-centric plans cannot be prepared in isolation, but must consider various laws, institutions operating at different scales, and varying authority. 

For example, urban flood management involves complex coordination mechanisms between the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Central Water Commission — federal bodies; the DDA — an autonomous body under the jurisdiction of the central government; the Upper Yamuna River Board (UYRB) — an inter-state agency; the Irrigation and Flood Control Department (IFCD) and the Delhi Jal Board — both of which are under the government of the NCT Delhi; and finally the Municipal Corporation at the local level. These institutions are guided by different legislation and functional mandates; together, they determine Delhi’s response and subsequent outcomes during flood incidences. You can locate most of these institutions in the above diagram. 

The key takeaway is that to strengthen water-centric urban planning, we need statutory Master Plans that take into account multiple multiscalar institutions and legal frameworks. How can we move towards this?

This blog is part of an ongoing project on Rejuvenating India’s Rivers, in collaboration with the National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG).

CPR Insights: How Have Different States Done Since 1991?

Source: https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualPublications.aspxhead=Handbook%20of%20Statistics%20on%20Indian%20States

Since 1991, market forces have had a greater say in the spatial distribution of economic activity, compared to earlier days of industrial licensing and other policies that directed the location of enterprises. So, which states have gained from this change, and which have lost?

The Reserve Bank of India publishes the Handbook of Statistics on Indian States. Table 25 in the Handbook is the Per Capita Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices. I took this data and ranked every state from 1993-94 to 2021-22 by using various editions of the Handbook. The result is in Figure 1 (if you are wondering how there is data for Telangana when it did not exist before 2014, the answer to that will have to wait for another day).

Punjab, the state that feeds India, has seen the largest decline in rank since the nineties. From being no. 5 in 1993-94, it slipped to no. 8 in 2008-09 and then collapsed to no. 19 in the next ten years, by 2018-19, where it is in 2021-22.

By contrast, Gujarat has had a relatively stable experience. It was no. 8 in 1993-94, had a slight decline to no. 10 in 2009-10 and that is where it was in 2021-11. Occasionally, it has slipped to no. 12 and 13 but it has risen back again. Its per capita GSDP in 2021-22 is just 3.7% less than that of the state/UT at no. 8 (its original rank in 1993-94).

Two states stand out in their success, Karnataka and Telangana. But, it is important to note when the rise starts. Between 1993-94 and 2009-10, its rank barely changed, moving from no. 17 to no. 18. Likewise, Telangana moved from no. 18 to no. 17 over 1993-94 and 2007-08. But, since then, they have zoomed up the ranks and now stand at no. 6 and no. 5 respectively. Other states that have done well are Odisha and Tripura, who have moved up from the bottom of the charts to the middle. The recent years are seeing a lot of change in the ranks of states, both up and down. India is definitely on the move, but states are moving at different speeds.

Why this difference? A definitive answer to that is still awaited.

CPR Insights: The Ballooning USO Fund

Universal Access Levy amount available for Universal Service Obligation

Source: https://usof.gov.in/en/fund-status

The other day I was examining a PhD proposal that was looking at bridging the digital divide,
when I wondered what had happened to India’s universal service obligation (USO) fund.
Sure enough, it was still around and quite easy to find online, but what I found surprised me
a little.

The USO Fund was created to support the Universal Service Support Policy 2002, to ensure
telecom access to all. It came into being in 2003, through the Indian Telegraph (Amendment)
Act, 2003. The revenue for the USO Fund is raised through a ‘Universal Access Levy’
(UAL), which is currently 5% of the Adjusted Gross Revenue earned by all the operators.
The USO Fund is an attached office of the Department of Telecommunications (DoT),
Ministry of Communications. The Administrator, USO Fund is appointed by the Central
Government.

Not only was the fund there, as the figure shows, it had, as of the end of last financial year, a
balance of ₹ 79,638 crore, i.e., almost $ 10 billion. In the last ten years, the balance in the
fund has increased over 2.3 times. Since its inception, it has collected about $ 20 billion (at
current exchange rates) and disbursed about half of it. However, as shown in the figure, in
recent years, disbursements from the USO Fund has been between 5% and 10% of the
available balance. In 2022-23, it received ₹12,694 crore but spent only ₹3500 crore. Last
year, it received ₹18188 crore and spent ₹7676 crore, i.e., it is spending less than the
interest it might have earned on its accumulated funds (which, surprisingly do not seem to
earn interest!).

This appears odd given the objective of spreading digital public infrastructure and becoming
a trillion dollar digital economy in three years. It is not that there are no projects, there are
many (https://usof.gov.in/en/ongoing-schemes). So, is the UAL excessive compared to the
requirements or is there a different explanation? Is the Administrator worried that disbursing

funds to the two major private telecom operators would attract undesirable attention?
Whatever be the reason, it is time rescue the USO Fund from its current obscurity.

Revisiting Dhampur Four Decades Later: First Impressions

(Picture Credit: Pushpa Pathak)

On 13th February 1979, I arrived in Dhampur Town, District Bijnor, Uttar Pradesh, to start my Ph.D. thesis field work. My research focus was on agro-industries as drivers of economic growth of a small town as well as of regional-rural transformation. Hence, I had selected a small town with a large sugar mill with the assumption that it will have strong linkages with the surrounding cane growing villages, which will contribute to rural development and prosperity.  

As of 1971, Dhampur was a town of about 23,000 inhabitants living in about 2 square kilometers’ area. Based on then available literature on small towns, I had expected Dhampur to be a mofussil town that would not be much different from a large village. To my surprise, Dhampur was a compact little market town with well-defined streets for different kinds of businesses, with many buildings having shops on the ground floor and living spaces upstairs, and some solely residential gallis (lanes) that had mostly two-story houses stuck next to each other. Also, it was a very much a walkable town, with cycle rickshaws being the only mode of public transport. The town was surrounded by green agricultural fields. The Dhampur Sugar Mill was located about 5 Kilometers South-east from the town in the midst of these fields it involved taking a long rickshaw ride to get there.

Earlier this year on 18 February 2024, I returned to Dhampur to see how this small town has changed over four decades. I found that Dhampur has grown to be a settlement of about one lakh population, with residential and commercial development along all the five highways emanating from the town. There are large showrooms for cars and motor cycles, schools and colleges, hospitals and clinics, marriage banquet halls, shops and restaurants, and even a fancy stone façade four story Eurasia Palace Hotel. Several new residential colonies with apartment blocks and bungalows are being developed in the surrounding agricultural areas. Now there is a clear distinction between the compact core or old town and newly developed urban periphery, which is not yet legally recognized to be a part of the town. E-rikshaws popularly called `metro service’ have replaced cycle rickshaws. There are also a few three-wheeler auto-rickshaws as well as shared tempos running on fixed point to point routes.

To know more on how this small agro-industrial town is becoming a vibrant city, follow the study updates on: https://cprindia.org/project/four-decades-of-development-in-dhampur

Board Announcement – 26th March 2024

Yamini Aiyar, President, and Chief Executive of the Centre for Policy Research will step down from her current role as of 31st March 2024 to devote more time to her research interests.

The Board expresses its appreciation for her excellent and significant contribution to CPR’s tradition of engaged multidisciplinary scholarship and for the energy, commitment, and sense of purpose she brought to her role during her tenure. We wish her the very best in her future endeavours.

The Board also welcomes Dr Srinivas Chokkakula, Senior Fellow CPR and Ministry of Jal Shakti Research Chair, as the President and Chief Executive. He will step into the role effective 1st April 2024.

Dr Chokkakula, a political geographer, engineer, and town planner, currently leads the TREADS (Transboundary Rivers, Ecologies and Development Studies) initiative at CPR and is a recognized authority on water policy, a research area of established provenance at CPR. He has been with CPR since 2010.

Srinivas has worked with SRISTI and Ahmedabad’s celebrated Honey-Bee Grassroots Innovation Network. He played a key role with the Environmental Planning Collaborative, Ahmedabad, in the reconstruction of Kachchh after the earthquake of 2001. He has been a Chevening Scholar, a post-doctoral fellow at SOAS University of London, and a Fulbright-Nehru Visiting Chair at the School of Public Policy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

For any queries, please contact:
Partha Mukhopadhyay: partha@cprindia.org
Hemali Sodhi: hemali@cprindia.org

CPR Perspectives: Interview with Rahul Verma

This month on CPR Perspectives — our flagship interview series commemorating the Centre for Policy Research’s 50th anniversary — we bring you a conversation with Rahul Verma, a Fellow at CPR, where he leads the Politics Initiative.

Verma is a Political Scientist who earned his PhD from the University of California – Berkeley, with a focus on the role of political parties, ideology and dynastic families in Indian politics. His book, Ideology and Identity: The Changing Party Systems of India, questions the assumption that ideology does not play an important role in the Indian voter’s decision-making.

At CPR, Verma’s work with the Politics Initiative focused on building up a core body of political research, collaborating with scholars to put out reports like Dalits in the New Millennium, and studying voter behaviour through efforts like the YouGov-CPR-Mint Millennial Survey, as well as bringing his Political Science lens to the State Capacity Initiative.

In our conversation with Verma, we spoke about his Political Science background, the thinking behind his research and the motivations to enter the policy world. We also spoke about the Politics Initiative and its various projects, his work with the State Capacity Initiative and Verma’s advice for young scholars entering this world.

You can listen to the entire conversation as a podcast here, or read the whole transcript now.

And if you missed our previous interviews, read our conversations with Partha Mukhopadhyay, Navroz Dubash, Avani Kapur, K P Krishnan, Mukta Naik, D Shyam BabuNeelanjan SircarYamini AiyarArkaja Singh and Mekhala Krishnamurthy.

__

(This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

What brought you into the policy world? 

I still consider myself at the margins of the policy world. I’m more of a Political Scientist and less of a policy person. So sometimes I do wonder what I’m doing at the Centre for Policy Research. But I believe that to understand the context in which policies are formulated it’s important to get a sense of where the politics is heading, ultimately any sort of discussion on policy, is also contextually dependent on the politics itself. 

 

And I think that that will be a subject we’ll return to. Still I want to chart the map of your career: how you ended up as a Political Scientist in a policy space. 

A part of me was always interested in Political Science and much more to do with electoral politics. I did my undergraduate studies at Kirori Mal College in Delhi at Delhi University and political science was one of my subjects, though I did not do honours in Political Science. At that point, I wanted to be a journalist. As someone who was growing up in the late 90s and early 2000s, I was fascinated by TV journalism, so that’s what interested me. I was part of the debating society at Delhi University and so that was the first transition into becoming a Political Scientist. Before that, I just had an interest in electoral politics. 

After Kirori Mal College, I went for my masters at Tata Institute of Social Sciences. There is a long story behind that. But I ended up doing my Masters dissertation on the rise of Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh and I think that was the second step towards thinking about research in Political Science and especially party politics and electoral politics. 

During my Masters at TISS, I also interned at the Lokniti-CSDS (Center for Study of Developing Societies), where I got the first hand experience of working. I remember it was the summer of 2008 when the Karnataka assembly elections were happening, and that was the first election after the 4th delimitation. And so I got to work with Yogendra Yadav, Sanjay Kumar and the entire Lokniti team. They asked me if I’m interested in continuing my work at Lokniti. I got another opportunity to do an internship in the winter of 2008.

In 2008, four or five states – Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh – were polling and so by that time I had decided that if I get an opportunity to work after my Masters at CSDS, that would be great. Luckily for me, I did get that offer in 2009. During Lok Sabha elections, I was part of Lokniti CSDS team, and luckily for me I also managed to get admission to begin M Phil in political science at Delhi University, because one of my advisors at TISS suggested that if you do want to do a PhD in Political Science, at least one of your degrees should be in Political Science. 

I wrote my M Phil dissertation on why different states in India have different party systems. By this I mean if you look at Rajasthan or MP, these are Congress versus BJP two-party states. Then there were states like UP and Bihar and Tamil Nadu which were multi-party states. So [I worked on] a historical understanding of the evolution of the Indian party system at the state level. In 2008, I also got an opportunity to attend Lokniti Summer School in analysing quantitative data as a participant. Next year, I went to the summer school to help the teaching team. So all of that in some ways consolidated the plan of applying for a PhD program. Luckily again, I got an opportunity to do my PhD at the University of California at Berkeley. Pradeep Chhibber was my dissertation chair, and I had met Pradeep at the Lokniti summer school where he used to come every year to teach. And so that’s what in some ways paved the career trajectory of being a Political Scientist. 

 

In your head what was the outcome? Did you imagine yourself then staying in an academic space permanently?

I don’t think before starting my PhD I had thought that I would be in an academic world. Elections and polling always excited me. And so the path I thought was that I may end up being another pollster who works on polling data, looks at election trends in newspapers. During that time, while I was doing my MPhil, going to the Lokniti summer school, all of this made me realise that you need training to be able to do things in a better way. 

When I entered my PhD program, like most of the PhD students, I was actually thinking of getting into academia – a university or a college position. By that time I had developed some interest in teaching. Luckily for me –  and perhaps there was another transition taking place in my head whether I wanted to stay in the US or try the job market there, I’m not saying I would have got a job there – someone advised me at the time, saying ‘you know the kind of things you are interested in? Politics is here [in India]. So what would you do sitting in the United States?’ And I thought, this makes sense. 

Luckily for me, I came to Delhi to present my book with Pradeep Chhibber, Ideology and Identity in 2018, and Yamini Aiyar was there for that conference. She asked me if I’m interested in coming back to India and whether I would be interested in joining CPR and working on electoral politics. Yamini had just taken over as the President of CPR in 2017, and she was trying to expand CPR’s research area in certain directions. And by the end of the year I thought now I also have a job to go back to India. And so in December 2018, I was at CPR. This does not mean I completely wanted to leave the university space. Again, I was lucky that during the pandemic year, I was reached out to by some folks at the Ashoka University about whether I was interested in teaching, and I said why not? And perhaps that was the pandemic year and I thought I could do it from home. Let’s try my hand at it. 

The first semester was hard, especially teaching methods on Zoom. I didn’t know whether I was going to continue this, but the second semester, at least part of it was in person. I was teaching Indian politics and that second-half I enjoyed being with students and interacting with them. So, I’ve been also teaching Political Science at Ashoka University for the last three years and I have taught courses on quantitative methods, Indian politics, but also on political parties, political elites and voting behaviour, this semester. 

 

Could you tell us a little bit about the thrust of your Political Science research starting with the PhD and going forward? What are the questions that have animated your research? 

I’m largely interested in political parties, party systems, voting behaviour, public opinion polling, political representation, and questions of democracy. And all of these are in some ways interlinked. To understand the questions of democracy and political representation, you need to understand the channels which lead to these sort of representative forms of government. So parties coming into the picture, voters coming into the picture.

My first book with Pradeep Chhibber is about ideology – the title is Ideology and Identity: The Changing Party Systems of India. The key question of that book is: how did the Indian party system transition from a Congress dominant system to a more coalitional form, to now a BJP dominant party system? The argument that we make in the book is that Indian politics is deeply ideological, and that contestation has shaped the movement of political parties in the ideological space, which led to the transition of these party systems. You would remember that for a long time the scholarship on Indian politics argued that ideology does not matter. People either vote on identity issues or there are much baser needs, and sometimes parties mobilise using patronage, welfare and clientelism. 

In the book we argue that yes, some of these things are there and they do drive voting choices, but that is not all to Indian politics. There is a deep ideological fracture at the heart of Indian politics, and some of these could be traced back to our independence movement. Through the Freedom movement documents – like speeches of various leaders – you could easily see that there was a divide on certain key issues, such as how to build a new independent India, how to accommodate various sections of society, whether India was going to be a Hindu country or a secular country, whether we are going to use reservations and quotas as forms of social justice. There were many such questions on what kind of role the new independent state was going to play in society. Will it remake the social order or it will use certain other forms to conceive citizenship and society? 

And so we used some of those materials to first lay out what is ideological in the Indian context because in the Western context, economic ideology plays a great role apart from the social ideology, right? But in the Indian context, parties and voters do not sort themselves on economic issues. Most parties agree or they have a similar position on economic issues. It doesn’t matter when they’re in treasury benches versus the opposition. And so in the Indian context, we first laid out what those ideological contexts are and then using survey data dating back to 1967, showed that voters and parties sort themselves ideologically. And finally, we did a rereading of the evolution of India’s party system from this ideological lens.

While I was writing this book, I was also trying to figure out what my PhD dissertation was going to be. Of course, I took many paths, but finally I ended up writing my PhD dissertation on why some families manage to survive for a longer period of time than others. So the key question there is that we focus too much on this question of whether dynastic politics is good or bad and why does India have more dynastic politics. If you do some sort of basic research, you’ll find that all countries have this problem of dynastic politics and maybe in some cases the number of MP’s in the Parliament is going to be around 10 or 12% and in other cases it would be around 25, 30, 35%. So you do have this variance, but for me I was more interested in this: if you look in India there are multiple political families. Some have lasted just for 1-2 generations and while some have lasted 3, 4, 5 generations, and so I wanted to understand what some of these families do, because it starts with an assumption that if people can pass on the power to their kids, they will. So it’s not a question of desire. It’s much more a question of an ability. Why do some families manage to do this versus others? 

And so for this research I largely focused on Uttar Pradesh. I collected or mapped political families in UP between 1974 and 2019 for a 50 year period. I found that there are more than 300 political families that have contested at Vidhan Sabha or Lok Sabha level and within those 300 families, roughly 100 of them have survived for these 50 years. There are hundreds who have now become extinct. And then there are 100 who have risen only in the last 20 years. And so using these differences between 300 families, why some survive, why some declined and why new political families are rising and what each one’s characteristic basically forms the meat of the dissertation. 

The core argument I draw from, say, organisational behaviour or from literature is that political families that manage to diversify themselves, both politically as well as economically, survive much longer. So diversification is basically a risk mitigation strategy. We focus too much on political families at the top level, right, like either the Gandhis or Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family or Karunanidhi. But every district of India, to my mind, has such political families, and some of them have been there for a very, very long time. So for me, the key question is also to understand that if some of these families have been there for 30-40-50 years, they must be having a great influence on multiple things within their district. At some point, I want to take this project forward as a book. I’m trying to basically add two more things to this UP project. One,  I’m collecting information on political dynasties among Lok Sabha MPs across India for the last 25 odd years and the second, just to put this in a comparative context, I’m basically looking at heads of state across the globe and how many of them came from political families and what the over-time trend across different regions are.

At the moment, I’m also working on a manuscript which focuses on understanding why some parties fail to revive. And the case study for me is the Congress party in India. But I want to make this argument in a comparative sense because electoral losses for political parties are a routine affair in democracies. But if you look at the Congress party’s electoral graph, it has been in a steady decline and any form of revival to my mind is going to be a long haul. And so thinking again from an organisational perspective, what is it about this organisation that it’s not able to shake off, to chart out a revival path. And hopefully, it will get completed in the next few months. 

 

So to go back to it, you had just started to think of life in the academic world. What convinced you to come to CPR? What was the project at hand? 

The way I have understood CPR is to basically bring in individuals who have some vision about what their area of research should look like and give them a cushion of a couple of years to figure out, build the team and then that itself grows into a body of research at CPR, which can not only sustain itself in isolation, but also adds to each other’s work within the larger ecosystem of CPR. 

To me the most interesting part was a couple of things. One, I think what attracted me to CPR is the group of scholars who were working on multiple things – and very different things. Some of them I didn’t have an idea about and I thought it’s a great place to basically learn about multiple things. I had no idea or little idea about, you know, Climate Change and energy sector and what’s happening there. And so we had a great group of scholars who worked on this area. And you can speak to them and learn from them. Similarly, on Urbanisation and on Accountability Initiative, which works on budgets and other things. So the first interest was to come there for very selfish reasons, to learn or at least get some information about other areas of work. 

The second reason was to, as I mentioned in the beginning, was to carve out your own research interest into a body of work by building a team around that. Neelanjan Sircar, who had joined CPR a couple of years before me, had started doing some work on electoral politics and the idea was to take forward some of the things he had started, but also bring in my own things, like research on public opinion polling and parties and elections and voting behaviour. So, the freedom to carve out a body of work, I think that was the second motivation. 

Third, I think is the public engagement. That is a platform that CPR provides you being at the heart of Delhi. If you are in a university, and this is much more about universities outside Delhi,  you are just having a conversation with your peers either inside the university campus or you’re meeting them at various academic conferences. At CPR you could convene a group of people who are thinking on the same issue but from very different angles. You can speak to journalists, politicians, bureaucrats, policymakers. And so I think this public engaging platform, where various stakeholders on any issue would come together and discuss, I think that was the third attraction point for me at CPR.

And the fourth. I started on January 2nd  2019. But before that I had come in December 2018 for the first CPR Dialogues, and I had yet to sign my formal contract and everything, and those two days – the first CPR Dialogues, where different faculty members or teams of CPR presented their work and you had time to informally interact with some of them –  I thought this is just a fun group of people to hang around with and it would be a good idea to be here. So I think those four were the primary motivations to be at CPR.

 

To get a sense of your thinking behind this, what made sense for The Politics Initiative to do at CPR versus, as you said, being at a university, doing Political Science in a more traditional setting. What was the task you laid out for yourself? 

Some of it was evolving. Five years is a short period of time to judge. And especially in these five years, we had two years of the pandemic and the last one year CPR has been facing one of the worst crises in its fifty year history, right? So I think from that perspective standing today we can be satisfied that we were building on something interesting and important. 

[We were] trying to understand the political context in which some policies get prioritised and some policies are left behind. Any policy in a democracy should at least reflect the will of the people, right? I was interested in doing these public opinion surveys to get a sense of what the voters and public are thinking. The idea was that slowly there would be cross pollination with other units of CPR and the Politics Initiative. For example at CPR, we did not have a separate initiative that was working on the question of women and their political participation. In fact, three or four of us came together two years ago and we decided to apply for a grant proposal – people from Accountability Initiative, people from the Urbanization team, the Politics Initiative. The idea was that it’s not just feeding into each other’s work, but also working or thinking on certain questions, and where we can think of a whole which is much bigger and more important than each of these consecutive parts? 

 

Could you tell us a little bit about what you did manage to do over those last few years at the Initiative? 

The idea was that there was not a big body of work on politics at CPR to fall back on and so the best strategy going forward was to also build collaborations and start doing public engagement work such as holding seminars, conferences and talks because you could invite other people who have done work in this area. And then start getting a foothold in this world of policy and politics. So we already had one such collaboration which was with the Trivedi Center for Political Data at Ashoka University. This was something which Neelanjan had started doing – an in-depth election analysis after any major election – and we continued doing that work for the last five years. After every election within 24 to 48 hours, we used to do a very detailed statistical data presentation of what led to this electoral verdict and what the implications of that verdict is going to be. A similar engagement also started with CSDS and CSH and  some talks and conferences got organised under that banner. 

Then on my own I’ve been doing multiple such series and I’m happy to get into some of them, but I would want to highlight at least three of them because they resulted in something. 

So the first. We started doing some closed door roundtable discussions. Because to me, sometimes at public-facing panel discussions people come with certain things to present, and they might also be playing to the gallery. So inviting a set of experts, not just academics, but journalists and politicians, and having a more [open] conversation within the four walls of a conference room on multiple thing. For example, we wanted to figure out how to think about the Dalit community and especially with a lot of things changing for them politically, socially and economically. What does it mean going forward? So that  conversation with 30 people on a single day has resulted in an edited volume with 25 chapters last year, and the title of that volume is Dalits in the New Millennium. We wanted to move away from two things. One, the lens of analysing the community from  the oppressed and oppressor angle, but also focusing on just a single issue or a theme. And so we had five different themes in our book – electoral politics, political economy, what is happening to political culture, what is happening to the questions of ideology and identity, and what is happening to the question of representation and discrimination. 

Second – and this we did during the time of the pandemic – is that political parties in India are going through some visible transitions. Especially state level parties. Many of them had a generational change in their leadership. Some of those parties were not very comfortable with new media and technology, right. And so now that the entire world of information technology is changing, how are they adapting to it? We did a series of workshops every fortnight, each focusing on one state and talking about their political parties and especially state level parties and what they are doing in relation to each other, but also in relation to the national party system or national parties. And so again this was a group of 35-40 people across the country. Some were also doing research in India, but might be teaching in the UK or US. They also used to join this conversation and we managed to put out a report. 

The third kind of collaboration that we succeeded in doing is that I was interested in polling. Data and polling in India gets reduced to these exit polls and election night tamasha. But a lot of opinion polling is very helpful. As is understanding what voters in general are thinking about multiple things. But polling is also a very, very costly exercise and we didn’t have that kind of resources both in terms of a team, but also in terms of money. Luckily we managed to get into collaboration with YouGov and Mint and since then, this month, the 11th round of YouGov-Mint-CPR surveys happened, and the findings get published in the Mint. Every six months we do this survey and the idea is not to just focus on political and voting questions, but ask multiple things to understand the health of the society on different things. 

A similar collaboration happened with CVoter. It’s a very old and reputed polling agency in India. Yashwant Deshmukh and I were talking about 2022 being the 75th year of Indian independence. And so we collaborated together to do a survey in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on the 75th year of Partition and independence. What do Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis think about themselves, where they have reached in 75 years, what they think about their neighbours? And so we launched the India report in 2022 and the comparative report is going to be launched on March 28th, where we’ll compare the three countries. So these were different kinds of collaborations and some of them have resulted in edited volumes or newspaper pieces or reports. 

 

I understand at CPR you also had a chance to work beyond the Politics Initiative. 

When I came to CPR, of course, the agenda was to be at the Politics Initiative. But in a way, I, from the beginning, was part of the State Capacity Initiative. [When I joined] the State Capacity Initiative was starting and Yamini had already managed to put a team of individuals who were going to be part of it. The State Capacity Initiative was one of the largest teams at CPR. The Politics Initiative was in some way 50% of my time but that was much more of a research interest perspective. That was what I was trying to build. But the rest was as part of the State Capacity Initiative. Some of the things that I did there or learned there were useful to the first few questions that you were asking about – the interaction with the policy world. For example, very early on, I was asked by a district magistrate to help his team in thinking about how to increase voter turnout. And so I visited that district multiple times in the run up to 2019 elections and largely, my role was to show him with data analysis where the turnouts are low, where the turnouts are high what possible factors could be leading to this variation. And this is as close as the political scientist can get to policy – directly working with the government or the state administration on something like this. So the mandate for me at the State Capacity Initiative again was that since I’m by training a Political Scientist, my work is going to understand state capacity and its weaknesses and what we can do to improve it from a Political Science lens. 

The second kind of work at the State Capacity Initiative was to basically be involved in training. And so the State Capacity Initiative used to collaborate with multiple state governments to train their newly recruited officers. Some of them were in the administrative institute, where the Administrative Training Institute and CPID used to have an entire module, sometimes for 15 days, sometimes for almost a month. And so many faculty members at CPR used to go there and talk about their own work. And so I have been to many such training institutes. My role there was to largely present research on elections, politics, voter participation, democracy, and so you could see this as capsule courses that we had designed for administrative cadres of various states. 

The third work that I was doing at this Initiative was to look at local governments, where the state meets citizens. I was interested in understanding local governance, the panchayat system of elections and the dominance and democratisation at that level. We managed to do a few things with that. To start off with an example, I curated an issue of Seminar magazine last year to mark the 30th year of 73rd and 74th Amendment Act and to see how India’s decentralisation story has moved forward: What we have achieved, where we haven’t done right, and what the next 10-15 years of our decentralisation story is going to look like. 

In that sense I had started multiple research projects. Some of them have reached to some conclusion and some of them are still  work in progress. 

So just to give you two cases where we have made some progress:

One was to actually look at the Panchayat Secretaries. Panchayat secretaries have very important roles, ranging from not just organising the Gram Sabha meetings but also registration of births and deaths and other things. And we were surprised when we collected information on Panchayat secretaries. We found that if you look in southern India, most panchayats have one panchayat secretary. But in northern UP, Bihar, many times, a panchayat secretary is looking after six or seven panchayats. And that creates a very serious governance problem at the local level, because these local bureaucrats are overburdened with work. Sometimes you’ll find these local level bureaucrats not properly trained, or perhaps inefficient, or engage in corrupt activities and other things. What we don’t acknowledge is how under-resourced some of these offices are, and how overburdened some of these offices are. So that’s one project. 

The second was actually just looking at the variation in panchayat laws across the country. The decentralisation of panchayat and urban municipalities are state subjects, and different states have different laws governing some of these things. And we’re trying to understand, first, mapping how these laws differ across States, and then thinking about how this difference of variation might be having an impact on governance. 

 

Do you feel that in the policy space within India, not just at CPR but in the wider policy environment in India there’s sufficient appreciation and understanding of some of the political science questions that you engage with?

Not really. What separates CPR from perhaps other policy think tanks in India – most policy think tanks are single issue focused, or or they might have a couple of different groups working on different themes. But they would still be aligned to one direction of research. What separated CPR from many of these spaces is the multiplicity of issues we were working on. CPR folks like to describe it as a space where imaginative and creative thinking has to flow on its own. And it does not need to be regimented.

 

I think that takes us to just the last few questions. What are the misconceptions or things that you think people get wrong about your work, about how we understand these things, how it fits into a broader policy environment?

I don’t want to answer this question about my own work in general. What I would like to put here is that now that I’m teaching a course on voting behaviour, I realise that there are more myths and misconceptions than what we think. 

We don’t have a comprehensive body of work on, especially on voting behaviour. I’m pretty sure and very confident that not a single university in this country at Masters level will have a full-fledged course on voting behaviour in India. And so if we don’t have that, you could understand the state of affairs. This is largely to do with, one, a lack of training in empirical Political Science research. At least in India, there are very few people who do this kind of work. Second, when I use the word empirical or data, every time people reduce it to numbers. And I don’t mean empirical or data as numbers, so that’s the level of misconception one has to deal with.

The world of polling or empirical Political Science is completely different in the Indian context than people who do other kinds of political science research. These two worlds are so apart that we don’t talk to build upon each other’s work. A lot of this information gets used in newspapers or TV news channels. But again, there’s no engagement with academic literature.

 

All right, that takes us to the next question. Especially given that you’re dealing with a lot of younger folks in terms of students, what advice do you give to a young scholar coming up into this space? 

The usual advice. You have to be passionate about the theme or research you are interested in. And I’m at the moment thinking about people who might want to go to policy research centres or think tanks or universities. 

Second, I think it’s important to undergo rigorous training. Which involves reading a lot, and reading also in comparative context, even I would say for people who want to do serious election reporting and political reporting. Reading academic literature and semi academic literature on some of the questions that you want to study. But also getting trained methodologically. Again, I don’t mean by methodological training that you have to know numbers. Our methods and research design are important to understand how you arrived at the answer you arrived at. So that there is basically transparency in the research. There is a difference between an informed opinion and a research based analysis. And I would prefer the latter because then I can see how you arrived at the answer and how convincing I find it. Training is very, very important and again I don’t mean you have to do a PhD, right. But it so happens that in PhD you get to train more than in any other sort of level of education. 

Third, I would encourage you to be less judgmental and more empathetic. And again, when I say less judgmental, I’m not saying don’t have political opinions and political positions. Have it, but when you are trying to understand people, be it voters, be it politicians, be it parties, then you’re trying to study actors. Try to at least think why they are doing what they are doing. What options were available to them, and why they must have done this and not other option? So trying to trace the steps of those actors rather than having a more opinionated position. This is perhaps also what differentiates empirical thinking from normative thinking. 

Finally,  what are three recommendations or suggestions of things that have influenced your career?

I read a couple of interviews of CPR Perspectives and I did know this question is going to come up to me. So I put some time into thinking about it. I couldn’t come up with a couple of books or a couple of people. So I thought: What has shaped me as a political scientist?

My first formal training began at Lokniti CSDS. And so that has greatly influenced me. In the musical tradition, you have gharanas. My feeling in some ways is that I’m from Lokniti CSDS Gharana. That does not mean I continue to sing in that tune. I’ve, of course, been trained there and was influenced by folks from there, starting from Yogendra Yadav and the others Sanjay Kumar, Suhas Palshikar, Sandeep Shastri, Rajeshwari Deshpande. The good point about CSDS was that it wasn’t an office. It’s a network of scholars and I got to meet and interact with this network. Some of them teach at Hyderabad University or University of Kerala or across the country, and some of the folks are also associated with the network who are teaching in US, UK and other places, right? CSDS shaped my thinking about how to create a group of scholars who are collectively going to work on ideas, and also shaped my understanding of Indian elections and party politics.

Over the years I have also met and interacted with many pollsters. While they get berated on Twitter and social media, some of them, like Yashwant Deshmukh at CVoter or Pradeep Gupta at Axis-My India, are fantastic researchers. The kind of information they have in their head about how Indians engage politically is just fascinating. Think of it – someone like Yashwant Deshmukh has been looking at election survey data since 1996, right? 25 years worth of trends is just amazing. 

The second group of people I again have been shaped greatly by would be folks at University of California, Berkeley. Pradeep Chhibber, my advisor, but some of his former students, current students, and many younger folks, folks of my age, who have been working on Indian politics and I got to make some hopefully lifelong friends, starting from Pradeep. In some ways, everyone has influenced me in very different capacities, not just academic. And I think that’s where I would like to separate all my influences. I think I have been also shaped by them, knowingly, unknowingly, how to behave and think as an individual as well, not just on research questions, but how to engage with the wider world. Some of Pradeep’s former students like Irfan Noorudin or Amit Ahuja and then, through that, meeting people like Milan Vaishnav, Neelanjan Sircar, Francesca Jensenius and seeing how they have been thinking about politics, has shaped me a lot. 

And the third, I would say some of the folks at CPR. Each of these three places have a different academic and thinking culture. CPR is basically a very eclectic group of people, right. The group at Berkeley or at Lokniti, it’s all thinking about elections and politics, right. At CPR everyone is thinking very different things. I don’t know a thing about what people in Urbanization or Climate might be working on. But you could learn from some of these conversations. While living in Berkeley doing my PhD, I lived with a mechanical engineer and a computer scientist. This is what also separates Indian universities from universities there. When I was living in Delhi University, you were living mostly with people who are studying Social Sciences. Same at TISS, right. But in Berkeley, I may not know even one percent of what my computer scientist friend would be doing. But at least through dinner time conversations I learned what his research is and why he’s interested in the subject. And so like that, I think CPR has helped me in thinking about very different things which are out of my comfort zone. Not just the faculty members, but lots of young people who have just done their masters and have come out to do an internship or a year of work at CPR like my own team at CPR. It was fun to work and engage with them. So those three places where I have spent the last 15 years of my life and people whom I have met there have influenced me greatly.