FULL VIDEO OF LECTURE BY PRATAP BHANU MEHTA
POLITICS SOUTH ASIA
Watch full talk (above) by Pratap Bhanu Mehta on ‘The Melody of Discord: The Self and History in Iqbal’, delivered as part of the fall 2016 OP Jindal Distinguished Lecture Series titled ‘The Nietzschean Moment in Indian Intellectual History’, organised by the Brown-India Initiative at Brown University.
CPR RESEARCHERS ANALYSE THE LEADERSHIP OF THE ERSTWHILE PRIME MINISTER
POLITICS
Obituaries remember Atal Bihari Vajpayee as a ‘statesman with a poetic soul’. As voices from across the political spectrum hail him as a ‘true nationalist’ who ‘stood for democratic values and demonstrated this commitment in all his acts’, it becomes important to understand the legacy he has left behind.
In this curated media commentary below, CPR researchers analyse the leadership and policies of the former Prime Minister.
Sandeep Bhardwaj writes in the News Central, about Vajpayee’s contribution to the Hindutva agenda, that goes beyond the demolition of the Babri Masjid and the 2002 Gujarat riots, which has opened the door to today’s political climate of communalism, hyper-nationalism and fear. Bhardwaj elucidates how ‘Indians started discovering new ‘anti-nationals’ in their midst everyday’ and how ‘anti-Muslim propaganda became commonplace’ under the Vajpayee government.
He explains how despite these facts, Vajpayee is still remembered for his moderation, arguing that it was a case of ‘secular wish fulfillment’ – ‘there was a strong desire within the liberal India to see him as a moderate and to believe that Indian secularism remained intact despite the evidence to the contrary’. Apart from that, ‘the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) Government also employed three main strategies to keep Hindutva palatable. First, corruption and economic liberalisation issues were kept on the forefront, while Hindutva agenda kept building up beneath the surface. Second, stories of fissures within Hindu right-wing were forever highlighted – Vajpayee vs Advani, BJP vs RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), RSS vs VHP (Vishva Hindu Parishad) – as a distraction, all the while these elements worked hand-in-hand on the ground. Third, Vajpayee and others sought to redefine Hindutva and present it as a benign ideology, often using vague or meaningless explanations, going as far as to suggest that it had nothing to do with Hinduism’.
As the nation was prepared for today’s political climate by the BJP government, Bhardwaj concludes by arguing that Vajpayee ‘ was either an unwitting abettor or willingly complicit – at best he played with fire without understanding that it was bound to go out of control, or at worst, he knowingly lit the match which burned down the building’.
The full article can be accessed here.
Srinath Raghavan writes in ThePrint, about Vajpayee’s guidelines on China and how they remain India’s best hope for an eventual agreement to solve the border dispute.
Raghavan highlights a series of failed attempts by successive governments to end the boundary dispute, which encompassed three sectors – eastern (Arunachal Pradesh), middle (Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and western (Ladakh including the Aksai Chin plateau). The Chinese Premier, Zhou Enlai had suggested that ‘if India accepted their claims to de facto control in the western sector, he would be open to considering India’s claimed boundary in the eastern sector’. However, such a ‘package deal’ was rejected and the bilateral relationship between the two countries went downhill.
Raghavan describes how ‘in an ironic turn of history, the relationship did not thaw until the advent of the Janata government in 1977 with Desai at the helm and Vajpayee as his foreign minister. Vajpayee’s visit to Beijing in February 1979 was a crucial moment. To assuage public opinion in India, the Desai government had stated that the relationship could not progress until the boundary dispute was resolved. In their meetings with Vajpayee, however, the Chinese leaders evinced no urgency on this matter. They wanted to put the boundary issue on the backburner and improve exchanges in other areas, especially economic ties. Deng Xiaoping said that if the problem could not be solved by this generation it should be set aside for the next generation. Vajpayee came up with a subtle formulation that bridged both sides’ positions’ by increasing functional exchanges between the two countries but not setting aside the border issue at the same time.
Vajpayee made repeated attempts, pressing ‘the Chinese to resume serious efforts to settle the boundary dispute in the interests of the overall relationship’ and ‘suggested that both sides appoint special representatives to conduct political negotiations and report directly to the principals’. Raghavan describes this as a breakthrough as ‘unlike previous negotiations, these would not be caught in legal-historical tangles but aim at a political settlement in stages.’ This process ‘paved the way for the Indian government to accept the idea of a ‘package settlement’ involving all sectors. This, in turn, led to the landmark agreement of 2005 on political parameters for settling the boundary dispute’.
The full article can be accessed here.
FULL ACCESS TO THE JOURNAL ARTICLE, CO-AUTHORED BY RADHIKA KHOSLA
CLIMATE RESEARCH
Cities are key for achieving the 1.5°C warming limit of the Paris Agreement. However, synthesising policy insights from the urban literature is a challenge, due to its rapid growth, breadth of topics and relative lack of assessments so far. Here we introduce methods from computational linguistics to build a systematic overview of research on transport, buildings, waste management and urban form. We find that the epistemic core of the mitigation- focused urban literature is currently centered on urban form and emissions accounting, while extensive research into demand-side options remain overlooked, including congestion and parking polices, active travel, and waste management. In the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on 1.5°C, and for meeting the target itself, all such city-scale opportunities need to be examined.
The full article can be accessed here.
The NRC Quagmire: Why is Assam on Edge?
LISTEN TO THE PODCAST FEATURING SANJOY HAZARIKA AND YAMINI AIYAR
PODCAST RIGHTS IDENTITY DISCRIMINATION
Listen to the 32nd episode of the CPR podcast, ThoughtSpace (above) featuring Sanjoy Hazarika (Director, Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative and Honorary Research Professor, CPR) and Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR).
ABOUT THE SERIES
The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) was recently passed in both houses of the Indian parliament, triggering large-scale protests across the country. What does the act mean for the future of Indian democracy? How do we understand the on-going protests and what are some of the political, economic and social implications of this movement?
In this mini-series curated by the CPR, we unpack these questions and shed light on what the next few months can have in store.
ABOUT THE EPISODE
The passage of the CAA was met by a fierce reaction in the northeastern part of the country, particularly in Assam. Assam has also witnessed the National Register of Citizens or the NRC process.
What were the reasons behind this process and how did it unfold? Why are the people of Assam protesting against the CAA and are these protests different from that in the rest of India? Are the CAA and NRC linked in any way?
In this episode, Yamini Aiyar speaks with Sanjoy Hazarika.
MORE RESEARCH ON THE CAA BY CPR SCHOLARS:
Unpacking the Citizenship Amendment Act
How Democratic Processes Damage Citizenship Rights: The Implications of CAA-NRC
Podcast: Citizenship Amendment Act- Protests, Democracy & Politics: Lessons from Latin America
NEW JOURNAL ARTICLE BY LAVANYA RAJAMANI AND JUTTA BRUNNÉE
PARIS AGREEMENT CLIMATE RESEARCH
Abstract: In this analysis piece, we consider a legal question that generated much debate in the lead-up to the US decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement: can a Party downgrade its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to climate mitigation without running afoul of its treaty commitments? Drawing on the treaty interpretation methods set out in the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, we examine the Paris Agreement’s normative framework and analyse the provision on adjustment of NDCs. We show that, while NDCs as such are not legally binding, they are subject to binding procedural requirements and to normative expectations of progression and highest possible ambition. Read together, these binding and non-binding terms make plain that a Party would contravene the spirit of the Paris Agreement if it downgraded an existing NDC. The US federal government is already scaling back its domestic climate action, such that it is unlikely to meet its NDC. Its Paris withdrawal, however, can only be formally declared in 2019 and will not take effect until 2020. We consider how, during this interim period, the legal implications of the ‘withdrawal’ approach differ from those of the ‘stay-and-downgrade’ approach.
The full paper is available on the OUP Academic website, subject to access restrictions. For a copy of the paper, please write to Lavanya Rajamani at lrajamani@gmail.com.
An earlier question-and-answer blog with Lavanya Rajamani on Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the Paris Agreement can be accessed here.
NEW BOOK BY SRINATH RAGHAVAN
SOUTH ASIA INTERNATIONAL POLITICS PODCAST
Srinath Raghavan’s new book The Most Dangerous Place: A History of the United States in South Asia will be launched on 3 July, 2018. In the run-up, listen to the CPR podcast (above) with Raghavan providing a preview to his book.
The book presents a gripping account of America’s political and strategic, economic and cultural presence in South Asia since 1776. By illuminating the patterns of the past, this sweeping history also throws light on the challenges of the future.
Read book reviews, which have appeared thus far:
Open Magazine: ‘Srinath Raghavan’s treatment is sure footed and his narrative animates the interplay of personalities, interests and power, as US presidencies rub up against Indian and Pakistan leaders.’
India Today: ‘This is one of the best histories of US engagement with South Asia offering a more nuanced and coherent perspective. Raghavan has burnished his reputation as India’s leading contemporary historian and political analyst.’
The Print: ‘Raghavan’s broad and detailed swathe of the US-South Asia relationship beautifully brings out this inherent contradiction in the heart of US policy.’
The Indian Express: ‘It is a definitive account, and the sheer scope and expanse of coverage sets the book apart from all earlier efforts on US and South Asia.’
The Hindu: ‘…it is a wonder that Raghavan has been able to encompass so much history across the expanse of the subcontinent in under 400 pages and few details miss his archive-trained eyes.’
Outlook: ‘Raghavan’s mastery has been in bringing together a vast trove of material to write this eminently readable history of the US in South Asia.’
Financial Express: ‘Raghavan is to be commended for the rich temporal tapestry he has woven and it is a complex yet rewarding trapeze. His nimble pen points to stimulating linkages.’
NEW ARTICLE IN THE ‘INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT’
POLITICS ENERGY RESEARCH
SOUTH ASIA ECONOMY
What does the next decade in South Asian electricity trade have in store? In a new article in the International Journal of Water Resources Development, Aditya Valiathan Pillai and Sagar Prasai analyse four crucial variables that will enable, and at times, constrain progress on cross-border electricity trade:
The health of distribution companies in India: India’s distribution companies are likely to shy away from relatively expensive Himalayan hydropower due to a combination of supply factors, such as a steep fall in renewable prices and the abundance of cheap thermal energy in the domestic market. These traditionally loss-making entities are also in the process of responding to incentives for financial rectitude created by new power sector reforms, namely UDAY (Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana).
The role of hydropower in India’s ambitious transition to renewable energy: India’s much-lauded addition of renewable capacity presents a long-term opportunity for hydropower developers in Bhutan and Nepal. Meeting peak demand, particularly after the sun goes down, has long been a function well-served by hydropower. At present, however, India is leaning towards coordinating existing coal and hydropower capacity to balance the grid until the current target of 175 GW renewable capacity addition is met.
Bangladesh’s power crisis and import dependency: Bangladesh’s depleting natural gas reserves, which supply nearly two-thirds of the country’s power sector, may result in the nation steadily importing hydropower from Bhutan and Nepal to reduce dependence on expensive imported coal and gas. Importantly, the country’s master planning for the power sector indicates that power imports will play a significant role in the energy mix.
The governance of regional electricity trading arrangements: Regional politics have repeatedly disrupted progress in creating an electricity market, first under the SAARC framework (due to faltering relations between India and Pakistan), and now in the sub-region. In India, the Ministry of Power’s 2016 guidelines on cross-border electricity trade have imposed conditions on who can trade electricity across India’s borders. Increasingly, regional electricity trade is being challenged by growing geopolitical competition between India and China.
In an analysis of these factors, the authors find that progress on cross-border electricity trade and hydropower development in the region will be incremental in the next decade, hindered by mixed demand signals and the turbulence of geopolitics. They argue that in a fragmented marketplace led primarily by individually-priced bilateral agreements, dynamic political relationships in the region will continue to deter investors. They conclude that the future trajectory of cross-border electricity trade will be shaped by India’s stewardship in the region.
Read the complete article here.
CPR FACULTY G PARTHASARATHY UNPACKS THE CONTEXT AND THE ROAD AHEAD
INDIA-PAKISTAN POLITICS SOUTH ASIA
On April 14, you wrote in The Indian Express that imaginative diplomacy alone is not enough to deal with the Pakistan army. Can you elaborate on this more, especially drawing on your own experience as a former Indian High Commissioner in Pakistan?
The answer to your query on why imaginative diplomacy alone will not be enough to deal with State sponsored terrorism can be illustrated in two examples. First, with the advent of General Zia ul Haq as President in 1977, Pakistan adopted a conscious policy of subverting sections of the population from (Indian) Punjab. This occurred regularly during the visits of Sikh pilgrims there, which led to their training disaffected youth in terrorism. Pakistan also started a worldwide campaign to mobilise disaffected Sikhs living abroad for the cause of “Khalistan” (an independent Sikh Homeland).
This situation continued till the mid 1990s. This serious situation was not resolved through diplomacy alone. Matters were ultimately sorted out when India took effective political action by holding elections in Punjab, and the State police dealt with the terrorist issue. In the meantime, world powers like the US and UK were persuaded to pressurise Pakistan to end its support for violence and terrorism in Punjab.
The second instance is the intrusion across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, by Pakistani forces in Kargil in 1998-1999. This carefully planned intrusion would have continued had India’s military action not forced the intruders from Pakistan’s Northern Light infantry, to vacate areas they had occupied, in violation of the letter and spirit of the Simla Agreement.
In the meantime, effective diplomacy ensured that we persuaded the international community that Pakistan had endangered peace and security by its actions. Facing diplomatic isolation and military disaster, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to rush to Washington to ask President Clinton to bail him out of a humiliating situation. Mr Sharif was compelled to agree in Washington that he would withdraw his intruding forces and respect the sanctity of the Line of Control. The whole exercise was a military and diplomatic fiasco for Pakistan, and required decisive military action, together with astute diplomacy.
In a second article titled The General, the “Spy”, and no talks with India, you have called the Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif the most ‘destabilising’ factor in the subcontinent and the reason why the Pathankot joint probe process fell through. In these circumstances, what is the road ahead for Prime Minister Modi, who made imaginative and bold moves in reaching out to Nawaz Sharif personally?
Pakistan realised that Mr Modi’s visit to Lahore had turned global opinion in India’s favour, since the world saw PM Modi’s visit as reflecting a genuine desire for resolving issues and living at peace with Pakistan. The Pathankot attack happened immediately after the visit. It was seen by the world as being entirely unacceptable and contrary to Pakistan’s protestations of being desirous of good relations with its neighbour. But is this diplomatic gain for India going to get Pakistan to end sponsorship of terrorism and resolve issues with India peacefully through bilateral negotiations? The answer is no.
As I have written in my article, the Pakistan army will wait for the world to forget what happened in Pathankot, in the same way as memories of the Mumbai attacks faded with the passage of time. I have little doubt that once the snows melt in July, infiltration across the Line of Control will again pick up.
In such a scenario, the road ahead for Mr Modi is to continue with diplomatic engagement with Pakistan to assess if there are any signs of Pakistan being prepared to end its support for terrorism. We also need to monitor the evolving political situation within Pakistan. The Pakistan army is going to have difficulties in sustaining its current stance toward India, given that it is fighting a battle with its own people in all four provinces of the country, including Punjab, which is the political base of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. This is going to lead to internal contradictions within Pakistan. India must be prepared to take advantage of that situation.
Lastly, would you like to comment on the road ahead for Pakistan?
My sense is that Pakistan is going to face more trouble on its border with Afghanistan than on its border with India. The Taliban leadership that the ISI has stitched together under Mullah Mansour is going to extend and expand its military actions within Afghanistan. The tribal areas in Pakistan bordering Afghanistan will becomes increasingly troubled and violent. This will become a morass into which the Pakistan army will be drawn, ever deeper.
The Pakistan army will become more preoccupied in dealing with developments on its borders with Afghanistan rather than its eastern borders with India. And with President Obama categorically stating that American troops will not be withdrawn from Afghanistan this year, the Afghans can be expected to hold their own against the Pakistan backed Taliban. We can only hope that the more costly their adventure on the Afghan border turns out to be, the more likely the Pakistan army will be to see reason, on the Indian border.
FULL VIDEO OF BOOK LAUNCH
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS ECONOMY
Watch the full video (above) of the book launch of ‘The Other One Percent: Indians in America’ co-authored by Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur, and Nirvikar Singh.
In conversation with Pratap Bhanu Mehta, author Devesh Kapur discusses how a population from a ‘low-income’ developing country like India become among the most educated and highest income group in one of the world’s most advanced countries in one generation.
WATCH FULL VIDEO OF THE SEMINAR ON EDUCATION DATA AND POLICY
EDUCATION
The Public Accountability and Governance in Education (PAGE) project at CPR organised a seminar on the various types of education data collected and how these are implemented in policy. The seminar drew wide participation from government, academic and private agencies.
