Author: cprindia

Electricity use in Indian homes – from lights, ceiling fans, televisions, refrigerators, among other appliances – has increased 50 times between today and 1971 (seen in Figure 1), even though India’s  per capita residential electricity consumption is less than a third of the world average. Residential electricity now outpaces growth in industrial, commercial and agriculture sectors. This striking statistic is on the increase, as India moves towards one of the largest urban transitions in history in the coming decades. What is the implication of this transition for household electricity use, as the urban population grows and income levels rise? What do we know about how electricity is currently used in homes across the country? And what drives our dramatically changing consumption patterns?

These questions form the basis of a new series on residential electricity consumption, jointly authored by the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi and the Prayas (Energy Group), Pune. In a weekly post for the next two months, CPR and Prayas will provide research findings on the nature of India’s residential electricity use. These findings draw from recently published work, and from new research that will be published in the next few months.

Specifically, the CPR findings are based on two new energy services surveys: 700 households in affordable housing units in Rajkot; and 5500 households representative of the National Capital Region or the broader Delhi area. The Prayas findings draw from two recent reports: a study to analyse the impacts of India’s large-scale LED bulb market transformation programme; and review of trends in India’s residential electricity consumption.

This series has two motivations:

• First, is the sheer scale of residential growth and the challenge of meeting this demand in a sustainable manner. India’s residences, which avail modern energy services such as cooling, clean cooking, lighting, and media access are predicted to account for 85% of the country’s floor space by 2050. The population’s development and lifestyle needs, coupled with the government’s aim to provide uninterrupted electricity to all homes by 2019, is projected to increase electricity consumption five to six times between 2014 and 2030. A combination of rapid electrification, increasing incomes, and technological development will result in people buying more appliances and using more electricity to run them. Already, the residential sector uses about 25% of the country’s total current electricity consumption (with a nine per cent growth in 2015-16) – at a time when less than a quarter of all households do not have an electricity connection and those that do face frequent power cuts.

Figure 1: Trend in Residential Electricity Consumption in India (1971-2015). Decimals are approximated to their closest whole numbers.
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) & Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data

• The second motivation is that in spite of the scale of current and future residential electricity use, an understanding of household consumption patterns and their drivers is limited. There is scarce publicly available data on the issue – evidenced by Figure 2, which shows how different studies predict dramatically different scenarios for the extent to which residential electricity use will grow. This large variation stems from differing methods, base-years and assumptions, even in business-as-usual cases. Variations also exist between government estimates, as seen by the difference in projections from the 18^th and 19^th Electric Power Survey (of India’s Central Electricity Authority). This uncertainty in future demand estimates is a significant barrier to strategic energy and climate planning. Beyond quantitative data, we also lack an understanding of the social and political processes conditioning electricity consumption such as appliance purchasing decisions, success of efficiency policies, and electricity use and conservation behaviour. A rigorous understanding of residential consumption is essential for designing effective and credible energy efficiency programmes, optimising planning of power capacity addition, and to adequately adapt to changing business models and technologies.

Figure 2: Projections from various studies (Base case scenarios)

The scale of increased residential demand, the uncertainty in the extent to which it could increase, and the urban and demographic transitions underway make future electricity needs not only immense, but also potentially malleable. If unaddressed, this demand will put serious constraints on already stretched national resources, posing serious social, local environmental and climate change related burdens. But if considered strategically, the increased demand could be an opportunity – to lock-in an energy efficient and low-carbon development path. More so, demand-side interventions could substantially reduce the requirements of energy supply, bypass the structural inefficiencies and financial losses prevalent in electricity distribution, and shape path-dependent consumption trajectories.

But in order to do so, the first step is understanding in detail how electricity is used today and the services that households seek the most. This new series aims to shed light on this question.

In the next blog, we will look at the broad trends of residential electricity consumption across different states in India and also highlight the disparity of electricity consumption at the household level. The Prayas website can be accessed here.

We would be grateful for your feedback on this series and request you to answer this short 5-minute survey.

The authors of this piece are Radhika Khosla (CPR) and Aditya Chunekar (Prayas).

To subscribe to email updates on the series, click here.

Other posts in this series:

• Trends in India’s Residential Electricity Consumption
• India’s LED Lighting Story
• Illuminating Affordable Homes
• The Efficiency of Appliances
• Appliances used in Affordable Housing
• Electrifying the National Capital Region
• Exploring the different uses of household appliances
• Role of human behaviour in driving electricity use

On 8 June, 2017, the National Green Tribunal (NGT) directed chairpersons of 10 State Pollution Control Boards (SPCBs) to cease functioning. This order was issued in the context of an earlier judgment delivered by the NGT on 24 August, 2016 in Rajendra Singh Bhandari v State of Uttarakhand & Others highlighting a serious institutional problem that has received little attention over the years: the composition of the Boards, and the qualifications of persons appointed as chairpersons and member secretaries, has not been fully in compliance with the letter of the law.

Shibani Ghosh, environmental lawyer and Fellow at CPR, contextualises and unpacks both the August 2016 judgment and the recent order of the NGT in an interview below.

What was the original case before the National Green Tribunal with regard to State Pollution Control Boards?

State Pollution Control Boards (SPCBs) are constituted by State Governments under the provisions of the Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act 1974 [Water Act] and the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act 1981 [Air Act], and are important actors in Indian environmental regulation. The case was filed before the National Green Tribunal on the ground that persons holding important posts in the Uttarakhand Environment Protection and Pollution Control Board did not possess the necessary qualifications as required in the two Acts. According to the applicant, appointees were often officers of the Indian Administrative Services (IAS) and Indian Forest Services (IFS) who held ex-officio posts and did not have the necessary knowledge and experience in the field of environment. Further, those appointed would often discharge their functions on a part-time basis, and many were transferred to a different posting before completing their term.

The crux of the case lies in the qualifications of persons eligible to be nominated as chairpersons and to be appointed member secretaries of SPCBs by the State Governments. The provisions state that the chairperson must have ‘special knowledge or practical experience in respect of matters relating to environmental protection’. In the case of the Water Act, there is an alternate eligibility criterion for the chairperson – a person with knowledge and experience in administering institutions dealing with matters relating to environmental protection could also be nominated.

With regard to member secretaries, both laws state that the person must possess ‘qualification, knowledge and experience of scientific, engineering or management aspects of pollution control’, and must be engaged on a full-time basis.

The laws do not elaborate further on the qualifications, and the rule-making powers to decide the terms and conditions of service of the chairpersons and the member secretaries lie with the respective State Governments.

Initially the matter pertained only to the State of Uttarakhand, but during the hearings concerns were raised about the (lack of) qualifications of persons heading other SPCBs as well. As a result, the Tribunal directed all states to become a party to the case, and the final judgment applies to all states and Union Territories.

What were the key features of the judgement passed by the National Green Tribunal in August 2016?

The key aspect of the August 2016 judgment is that the Tribunal provided guidance for how the terms ‘special knowledge’ and ‘practical experience’ in the context of the SPCB’s chairperson’s qualifications are to be understood, as they are not defined in the two laws. The Tribunal concluded-

“122 … the Special knowledge is where the information one acquires through learning which is exceptional, in greater quality and degree. It can be said to mean knowledge which is surpassing, distinguishing and exceptional in nature and is derived through rigorous study or research over a reasonable period of time, in the field of matters relating to environment.

Therefore, any person with knowledge which is ordinary or casual in respect of environmental matters will not qualify or become eligible in respect of appointment under consideration. Knowledge, qualified with the word special, has to be acquired through accepted and established norms of education i.e. an academic qualification in the field of environmental protection as recognized by university established by law.” (emphasis as in original)

The Tribunal specifically added that the candidate must have to her credit ‘either M.Sc. in Environmental Science/ Environmental Management or M.E./M. Tech. in Environmental Engineering or equivalent degree’.

On ‘practical experience’, the Tribunal held-

“This would mean that a person with a basic knowledge and understanding of environment and its protection, which he might have obtained in the form of a Degree in Science, would be eligible for appointment if he has had actual experience in environmental protection. … A person having practical experience in environmental protection and abatement of pollution, but without at least the basic knowledge and understanding of the environmental processes through degree in Science subjects, cannot be regarded as eligible for the said post. … That leads us to hold that a person having practical experience must have a degree with Botany/Zoology/Chemistry or an allied subject wherein basic knowledge about ecology and environment are a part of the curriculum.” 

With reference to the third eligibility criteria for the post of the chairperson under the Water Act – knowledge and experience in administering institutions dealing with environmental protection – the Tribunal stressed on the requirement of knowledge along with experience. It held that a person was not an eligible candidate just by virtue of administering an institution dealing with environmental protection – as that was mere experience, and not necessarily knowledge. The Tribunal did not exclude IAS and IFS officers from the pool of potential candidates, but held that candidates must have a degree in a science subject which relates to the environment.

For member secretaries, the Tribunal emphasised that the law specifically required full-time appointments and that the candidate must have a ‘Masters of Engineering, Technology, Environmental Engineering or allied Sciences where Pollution Control forms a component of the curriculum’.

The Tribunal directed the State Governments to examine the qualifications of the current chairpersons and member secretaries, and decide whether they are in accordance with the law and the interpretation provided in the judgment. It gave the states three months from the date of the judgment to complete this exercise.

Besides this specific direction, the Tribunal also issued guidelines to the State Governments to ensure that SPCBs function smoothly. Although these were termed as ‘guidelines’, they were worded prescriptively. Inter alia, the State Governments had to notify rules under the Water Act and Air Act specifying the qualifications for the posts of the chairperson and member secretary; posts of chairpersons and member secretaries are to be openly advertised to attract the best talent; chairpersons and member secretaries are to have a fixed term– not dependent on their tenure in the State Government, and they are to be allowed to complete their full tenure.

Why is the matter back in news now?

In its 24 August, 2016 judgment, the Tribunal had given all states three months to ensure that the appointments were in consonance with the law and the guidance provided in its judgment. Some states had filed appeals in the Supreme Court against the August 2016 judgment. But as the Supreme Court has not stayed the judgment, states are expected to comply with it. The Tribunal is currently considering whether the states have complied with its judgment or not.

In its order on 30 May 2017, the Tribunal noted that states had not taken effective actions to comply with its judgment. It issued a show cause notice to all chairpersons of SPCBs whose appointment was not in consonance with the judgment to justify as to why they should not be asked to cease functioning as Chairman of the respective Boards.

After receiving replies to its show cause notice from various states, in its last order (8 June, 2017), the Tribunal directed the chairpersons of the SPCBs of the states of Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Rajasthan, Telengana, Haryana, Maharashtra and Manipur to cease functioning, as their appointment, despite passage of sufficient time, did not comply with the Tribunal’s judgment. The government of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab were given some additional time. There was no observation with regard to other states. The case is now listed for further hearing 4 July, 2017.

What implications does the NGT’s judgement have for the Boards’ functioning?

The SPCBs as frontline environmental regulators play a very important in India’s environmental governance. As noted by the Tribunal in its 24 August, 2016 judgment, and again in its 8 June, 2017 order, the SPCBs’ duties are predominantly technical in nature. To be able to discharge these duties, whoever is at the helm of affairs must have the capability, of course with assistance from the rest of the Board and staff, to understand, and respond to, the huge array of issues faced by the SPCBs. If the Tribunal’s judgment with regard to appointments is followed in letter and spirit it can significantly improve the institutional capacity of the SPCBs.

It could be argued that the 10 SPCBs whose chairpersons are no longer permitted to perform their duties will not be able to function properly. While it is not a desirable state of affairs, it is unfortunately not unusual for pollution control boards to be without full-time chairpersons. For instance, the post of the chairperson of the Central Pollution Control Board lay vacant for four and half years.

While the Tribunal’s stand on the issue is welcome, it is important to keep in mind that there are other structural issues such as autonomy in day-to-day functioning, transparency in decision making, and accountability for (in)action and poor decision making which are critical to the effective functioning of the SPCBs and for improving environmental outcomes. But these are not at issue before the Tribunal in this case.

Read an earlier piece by Ghosh on Understanding the National Green Tribunal here.

As the country moves forward to sustain efforts undertaken through past water, sanitation, and housing programmes, while increasing focus on integrated water and sanitation through Jal Shakti and Jal Jeevan missions, this is an opportune time to deliberate on lessons learned from the field and engage with recent research findings. The goal of providing tap water for every household by 2024 will need a new thrust on wise water management practices, which would need to be supported by appropriate policies and incentives. Although there is recognition of the need to improve resource planning, service delivery, pollution abatement, and recycling, while expanding infrastructure for the unserved and underserved, critical questions around how this can be achieved in an integrated and sustained manner remain unanswered. While the principle of subsidiarity and decision-making at the lowest effective scale could hold the key, how can these principles be operationalised at a national scale?

In this context, the Scaling City Institutions for India: Sanitation (SCI-FI) initiative at CPR with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in partnership with UNICEF and WaterAid India, organised a day-and-a-half long national workshop titled ‘WASH Futures: Subsidiarity for Service Delivery’.

National Workshop and its thematic spread

The National Workshop served as a platform for discussions around some of SCI-FI’s key research themes and connect them to the new policy context in the sector in terms of governance and institutional roles.

The primary participants of the workshop were governments (at central, state and local levels), academicians, researchers, National Faecal Sludge and Sepatage Management (NFSSM) alliance members, policymakers, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), and other development partner agencies.

The inaugural session setting the agenda for the workshop was followed by deliberations on key thematic areas, which are identified as under:

Technical Session on integrating planning to address water and sanitation needs in the rural-urban continuum.

Continued reliance on groundwater sources, without adequate recharge and predominance of sporadically serviced on-site sanitation systems – septic tanks and pits – evidence the commensurateness of water and sanitation infrastructure and services in India. Notwithstanding these deprivations, urban growth in the country has been precipitous in the last two decades, triggering in-situ growth, peripheral outgrowth and growth of satellite settlements.

A study on the identification of large and dense villages (LDVs)  and their water sanitation facilities in India (which included 3892 Census Towns (CTs), settlements identified as urban by the Census of India but are administratively rural, and 155, 056 villages) revealed that they accounted for 507 million population based on Census 2011 data. It also revealed that a majority of these settlements are proximate to Class I cities which have a population greater than 100,000. More intriguingly, there is a continuum between these proximate rural and urban settlements not only in resembling socio-cultural and political economic structures but also through discernible similarities in water and sanitation infrastructure. LDVs which are within 25 km distance from nearby Class I cities account for 47 percent of the total LDV population of 507 million and 49 percent of their households with water within premise and 35 percent of households with toilets connected to on-site sanitation systems (Census 2011).

There has emerged a clear evidence of economic, social and environmental linkages between the urban areas and proximate settlements which stand to benefit from collective development planning. Another primary survey conducted in 2018 covering 60 LDVs in 5 states underscores trends in preferences for septic tanks and pits and variations in their design and make based on socio-economic, technical and behavioural factors influencing household decision making on their construction and maintenance. This study underscores and impels the exploration of rural-urban continuum through a microscopic analysis of water and sanitation infrastructure and services to gauge the viability of common waste treatment facilities through integrated planning and streamlining desludging services.

It is also imperative to facilitate the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. Dovetailing efforts to converge pursuance of Goal 6 of Clean Water and Sanitation with Goal 10 on reduced inequality and Goal 11 on Sustainable Cities and Communities which call for ‘supporting positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning’. The case for integrated planning for urban-rural contiguous areas is further heightened by the government’s conviction to build faecal treatment plants and provide tap-water to all households by 2024. This session deliberated on cross-jurisdictional planning opportunities both within ‘mission’ plans and in wider governance arrangements within a subsidiarity framework.

Technical Session on decoding the sanitation mechanics.

The sanitation value chain emphasises on a systemic approach to address the prevalent challenges in the sanitation fold. This starts with the nature of the containment structures (on-site sanitation systems) and extends to the value of the recycled and reused products, emphasising on plethora of innovative technological interventions in the sanitation value chain. So far, the understanding of on-site containment structures, which are an essential part of the sanitation chain has been limited. A new nationally representative survey of OSS in secondary and smaller cities and in LDVs aims to address this gap in knowledge will be presented and debated.

Different forms of desludging services prevalent to the local context also serve an important role in the value chain as it holds cross cutting linkages with technical and social (reducing the human intervention in desludging) dimensions. Poor or limited FSSM in the current context are not fully mechanised and involve manual cleaning in one form or the other. Generating value out of the waste is a concept of resource efficient system, thus selection of sustainable FSSM systems for treating the sludge and valorisation of the treated waste into portable water and nutrient-rich biosolids or soil conditioners is to be viewed very critically in terms of attracting investments and minimising the environmental impacts.

This session gave a comprehensive insight on each component of the sanitation value chain, from the technical perspective of various subject experts with an enriched experience in this sector. Based on group discussions the session explored how the policy environment and intervention could be more supportive of alternative technologies and service delivery models, with the goal of increasing access to safe and sustainable water and sanitation in urban and rural areas.

Technical Session on Private Sector Participation to bridge the sanitation market gaps.

The sanitation sector presents an opportunity for a market of about $62 Billion by 2021. As per an earlier CPR-CII study, the Swachh Bharat Mission was expected to generate demand of Rs 32,000 Crores for the sanitary ware industry, Rs 27,900 Crores of demand for micro-finance, Rs 4,16,000 Crores for the equipment industry among other sectors[1]. Private sector engagement in the sanitation service sector remains unregulated and is characterised by indiscriminate disposal of the collected faecal sludge, precarious safety protocols, and unstandardised service provisions. There exist several key opportunities for engagement of the private sector ‘to leverage new business models and to enable efficiency and at competitive costs.’ As the scale of sanitation challenges is shifting from the issues of construction of toilets to the issues of sustained usage and continued O&M, cost recovery and driving innovative technological solutions, the role of the private sector will emerge in a broader light. This has also been articulated in the national policies encouraging Urban Local Bodies to invite private capital in urban infrastructure as well as to bring in private sector efficiency in the delivery of urban services, O&M and FSSM.

This session reflected and elucidated on the new studies that document the prevalent and emerging practices and business models underscoring private sector participation across the entire sanitation value chain. It also analysed the regulatory and governance frameworks present and envisaged for private sector led service provision. Group discussions deliberated on practices that can encourage partnerships, entrepreneurship, technology and financing in the water and sanitation sector.

Technical Session on Inclusive Sanitation: Rhetoric or Reality?

The sanitation ecosystem in its current form often misses critical elements of inclusion and equity in the value chain. Most city level sanitation chains do not adequately implement principles of inclusion, particularly in the city sanitation planning, technology selection, institutional reforms, financial mobilisation and managerial leadership. This impresses on the need for an ecosystem to mainstream inclusive sanitation processes in all urban management endeavors, while strengthening capacities of the institutions (public, private and community) to accord priority to inclusive sanitation.

This alignment of equity and inclusiveness in the city wide sanitation needs to be built across planning, designing, implementation, regulatory, monitoring and management levels. It also needs to include designing innovative technology options to increase and facilitate access, safety and security of women, aged, differently abled, transgender and other vulnerable groups in the public locations like school, work place, health centers, markets, parks, travel hubs and others. Tracking access and usage of equitable sanitation infrastructure and understanding the reasons for inequitable access and variability across the sanitation chain will gain enormous traction in the years to come. Provisioning of FSM services to poor and marginalised in cities, keeping in mind the principle of justice and equity, has already gained grounds in few cities. Safety and dignity of workers, capacity building and skill building of poor and marginalised to operate and manage sanitation (including FSM) systems require integration in city wide inclusive approaches.

This thematic session elucidated the need to align the concerns of city wide inclusive sanitation for one and all and the steps taken by the partners – government, CSOs, CSRs – to promote inclusive approaches in sanitation to facilitate access, ownership of FSM services in the city. The session also deliberated on various models adopted for encouraging inclusion and the challenges faced to embed and integrate inclusive sanitation in cities in a sustained manner and to draw recommendations for enabling policy frameworks on inclusion in sanitation.

Technical Session on Scale and Institutional Capacities

With the thrust on water and integrating sanitation with water programmes, emphasis on scale and institutional capacities of stakeholders is a key area for research and action. Under the new proposed subsidiarity principles in governance of the sector, capacity building of state level institutions as well as district and local government institutions (PRIs/ULBs) will be accorded priority.  Institutional landscape in both water and sanitation space across all levels are faced with capacities which are inadequate, fragmented and often conflicted. Both water and sanitation programmes are viewed in silos in terms of planning, designing and implementation, instead there is a need to see both sector integrated programmatically. There are other issues surmounting the institutional capacities, with different programmatic aspects dealt with overlapping roles and responsibilities. However, there is a need for compliance of principles of subsidiarity to guarantee independence to a lower authority in relation to a higher tiers of governance. This highlights the need for oversight or authority to monitor dovetailing of both water and sanitation programs and investments in integrated manner; resolve conflicting issues and taking necessary decisions.  As per the 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendment Act, the functions of water and sanitation rests with local bodies but the question  remains whether these bodies are capacitated enough to manage the function, and whether funds and functionaries are present with the local bodies to play the role effectively.

This session presented an overview on the need of scale and institutional accountability requirements through capacity building assessment of state level institutions as well as local governance institutions and outline a road map for the bridging the capacities of the concerned stakeholders. It deliberated on seeing water and sanitation institutional framework in an integrated manner, with local level accorded priority.

Closing Plenary Session: Moving forward on recommendations and areas for action

This session with a mix of presentations and a panel discussion discussed the prospects of resource planning, service delivery, pollution abatement, and recycling through an integrated lens. Connecting with the discussions of all the technical sessions, the future of government initiatives in WASH and the key challenges towards sustaining efforts for the unserved and underserved was explored. It deliberated on what is understood to be gaps in knowledge given the broader consensus on the need to adopt principles of subsidiarity and decision making at the lowest effective scale. These issues were discussed from the perspectives of practitioners in government, development partners and researchers in the field.

ThePrint India was the digital partner for the workshop. Media coverage of the workshop can be accessed below:

• Decentralisation key to success of sanitation scheme, says Namami Gange chief Rajiv Mishra
• ‘No anganwadi centres built in 7 yrs because rural job plan was not interpreted correctly’

Watch the full video (above) of a discussion on the book ‘Navigating the Labyrinth: Perspectives on India’s Higher Education’, edited by Devesh Kapur and Pratap Bhanu Mehta.

The panel discussing the book comprised Pankaj Chandra, Apoorvanand Jha, Devesh Kapur, and Pratap Bhanu Mehta. The discussion was moderated by Anubha Bhonsle.

By Shyam Saran

In the recent general elections, national security has emerged as a major political issue. However, the discourse over national security has been limited to dealing with specific security-related episodes such as terrorist attacks at Pathankot, Uri and Pulwama on the Line of Control with Pakistan; the stand-off with Chinese forces on the India-Bhutan-China border; and the security operations in the disturbed state of Jammu and Kashmir. A holistic discussion of India’s national security rarely occurs in the public space or even within the government. The Indian state does not possess an overarching national security strategy (NSS) that comprehensively assesses the challenges to the country’s security and spells out policies to deal effectively with them; of course such a strategy must be executed within the parameters laid down by the Constitution of India and the country’s democratic political dispensation. In the absence of an overall strategy, the state relies on ad hoc responses of questionable utility. Moreover, it possesses no mechanism that permits it to learn from its experiences. Ad hocism also neglects the broader political, social and economic context within which specific episodes must be located and understood.

A modern state confronts multiple and simultaneous challenges across several domains. National security cannot be confined to the use of the state’s coercive power to overcome domestic and external threats. For example, threats to domestic peace and stability may arise from economic and social grievances. A knee-jerk reaction may leave these grievances unaddressed while the use of coercive power exacerbates rather than ameliorates the situation. For instance, left-wing extremism in India is rooted in the persistent exploitation of tribal populations.

Similarly, the vulnerability of our borders is linked to a large-scale smuggling and contraband trade that permits channels through which terrorists and criminals find easy access. Such threats cannot be dealt with solely through enhanced military capabilities without addressing the drivers of illegal trade. It is recognized that the prolonged use of subsidies for ostensibly social welfare purposes creates arbitrage opportunities for cross-border smuggling. Such criminal activities often entrench powerful mafia groups with close links to politics. While groups of this sort constitute a serious threat to domestic security, the solution lies as much in the economic domain as in strengthening the state’s law and order machinery. The NSS will need to acknowledge such cross-domain linkages and policy interventions.

For a modern state operating in an increasingly globalized world, the line between what is domestic and what is external is becoming increasingly blurred. For example, terrorism is a threat to domestic security but may have external links. Dealing with terrorism may require not only domestic interventions but also action on the external front. Issues related to water security may involve dealing with neighbouring countries with which India shares its major rivers. Thus a combination of domestic and external interventions may be necessary. It is only within a comprehensive NSS that such complex inter-relationships between domestic and external dimensions can be analysed and coordinated policy responses formulated.

We live in a technology-driven world; new technologies such as the Internet and digitization are enabling powerful tools for states to enhance national security but also creating new and serious vulnerabilities and security risks. Cyber security has become a major concern and it is only through developing advanced technological capabilities that a state has a chance of defending itself against cyber attacks. The NSS would enable the identification of critical infrastructure that may be vulnerable to cyber attacks, and the development of human resources capable of identifying attacks and protecting and restoring critical systems. Anticipating cyber attacks and hardening systems against them become ever more necessary as economic and governance activities increasingly rely on digital technologies. Ad hoc responses would be grossly inadequate. A critical aspect is that in a democracy like India, the state’s use of advanced digital technologies for surveillance and intelligence gathering must not violate the citizens’ right to privacy and freedom of expression. There is a trade-off between enhanced security and the citizens’ rights guaranteed by the Constitution, and this must be clearly spelt out for the people of the country and well-considered solutions put forward. National security must not become a justification for a surveillance state. The danger of relying on ad hoc responses is that they may cumulatively lead to a predatory and authoritarian state that limits the exercise of democratic rights. The NSS must deal with this dilemma upfront.

Technological change and geopolitical shifts are also impacting India’s nuclear security. The country’s nuclear deterrent must deal with the challenge of two nuclear-armed neighbours: China and Pakistan. Furthermore, the nuclear domain is becoming closely interlinked with cyber and space-related capabilities. The development of India’s nuclear deterrent must take into account the impacts of such technological change. The overall nuclear security environment is also being affected by geopolitical shifts with the gap between the US and Russia on the one hand and China on the other reducing significantly. The older nuclear order anchored in bilateral US-Russia arms control arrangements is now unravelling because China remains outside these arrangements. A new nuclear order is becoming essential as we move into a world of multiple nuclear states. India will need to determine what role it should play in the shaping of this new nuclear order.

Ecological degradation and climate change have significant impacts on national security. There may be direct consequences of the melting of glaciers on the deployment of troops at high-altitude locations on India’s mountainous borders. Sea-level rise as a result of global warming may inundate naval bases along the coasts. There may be large-scale migration of populations from low-lying coastal plains towards higher ground, and this may lead to social disruptions and economic distress, undermining domestic security. Therefore, the NSS must anticipate the consequences of ecological degradation and climate change, and formulate coping measures.

Another oft-neglected dimension of India’s national security that must be integrated within the NSS is strategic communications. It relates to the indispensable need, particularly in a democracy, to shape public perceptions through constant and consistent public outreach and to provide a channel for public opinion or feedback. This would enable the government to explain its policies, garner public understanding and support, and review and adjust policies on the basis of feedback received. This has become a far more difficult and complex challenge due to the spread of social media, the phenomenon of fake news, and the instant nature of news gathering and dissemination. Governments need to stay ahead of the news cycle, establish credibility as a source of authentic and reliable information, and shape public opinion rather than be reactive all the time. National security may be adversely impacted by the spread of false news by hostile elements within and outside the country using social media. This will require strong and advanced cyber capabilities, which may have to be constantly upgraded to keep pace with rapid technological advance.

An NSS for India needs to take a comprehensive approach, encompassing domestic and external and economic and ecological challenges, highlighting the inter-linkages and feedback loops among them and on that basis formulate a coherent template for multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral interventions. Such a template would serve as a guide for a whole of government approach, ensuring that intervention in any one domain does not contradict or even negate intervention in another domain. It is only by having a big picture constantly at hand that contradictory and wasteful policies can be avoided. We should move towards a pattern of governance where interventions in one domain reinforce interventions in other domains.

Drawing up an NSS for India must be a key item on the agenda of the new government. This may be tasked to a group of eminent persons from different disciplines who could consider India’s national security in its multiple dimensions. In a democracy, an NSS should be citizen-centric and must reflect the values and beliefs of the people; at the same time, it must seek to raise public awareness of and shape public perceptions about national security issues. The proposed NSS must take the Constitution of India as its guide and its objective should be the safeguarding and consolidation of India’s democracy. This approach would, for example, reject intrusive governmental intrusions into the lives of ordinary people, violating their rights enshrined in the Constitution.

In every domain of national endeavour there must be pursuit of excellence and high standards to enable India to compete successfully in a highly competitive and globalized landscape. Islands of excellence cannot be sustained in an ocean of mediocrity and low quality. This need not conflict with properly designed policies for affirmative action designed to reduce and eventually eliminate the consequences of long-standing social and economic disabilities suffered by sections of India’s citizens. What is critical is the state’s capacity to design, execute and evaluate interventions in different domains, and for this the institutions and processes of governance may need to be altered and strengthened. New institutions may be required to deal with newly emerging challenges. This, too, must be included in the NSS.

Previous exercises undertaken to promote national security could serve as useful reference material for the NSS. These include the Kargil Review Committee report (2000), the Report of the Naresh Chandra Task Force on Security (2012), and the document entitled ‘Building Comprehensive National Power: Towards an Integrated National Security Strategy’ prepared by the National Security Advisory Board (2015). Only the Kargil report has been made public. It is recommended that these reports and the NSS prepared by the new government should be public documents and open to public debate and review. A well-informed, vigilant and educated public opinion is the best assurance of national security.

Other pieces as part of CPR’s policy document, ‘Policy Challenges – 2019-2024’ can be accessed below:

• The Future is Federal: Why Indian Foreign Policy Needs to Leverage its Border States by Nimmi Kurian
• Rethinking India’s Approach to International and Domestic Climate Policy by Navroz K Dubash and Lavanya Rajamani
• India’s Foreign Policy in an Uncertain World by Shyam Saran
• A Clarion Call for Just Jobs: Addressing the Nation’s Employment Crisis by Sabina Dewan
• Time for Disruptive Foreign and National Security Policies by Bharat Karnad
• Multiply Urban ‘Growth Engines’, Encourage Migration to Reboot Economy by Mukta Naik

Listen to the audio recording of the presentations (above) addressing two fundamental legal issues that need to be resolved in order to ensure the effectiveness of a 2015 climate agreement. These include i) resolving the precise legal form this agreement will take; and ii) determining the legal nature of the ‘nationally determined contributions’ Parties are expected to submit in the context of the 2015 agreement.

The seminar features Dr Lavanya Rajamani, Research Professor at CPR; Ambassador Chandrashekar Dasgupta, IFS (Retired) and Former Indian Negotiator; and Luther M Rangreji, Associate Professor, Faculty of Legal Studies, South Asia University, and also Former Indian Negotiator.

For additional resources, visit the dedicated page.

Despite the potential of cities to foster a low-carbon energy transition, the governance of energy in India broadly remains within the purview of central and state governments. However, the Smart Cities Mission, a new urban scheme launched in 2015, gives Indian cities new powers to govern energy, a surprising departure from previous urban and energy policies. We argue that this shift is significant and we therefore raise three questions: 1) what kind of energy projects are planned and what does it reveal about the cities’ vision towards energy? 2) does the Smart Cities Mission foster a low-carbon energy transition and if so, how is this transition envisaged? 3) and finally, what are the rationale and the drivers behind this apparent shift?

To address these questions, we build on a database of projects and financing plans submitted by the first 60 cities selected in the Smart Cities Mission. We find that cities have earmarked an immense 13,161 INR crore (~1.4 billion GBP) for energy projects, with most funds dedicated to basic infrastructure, primarily focused on enhancing the grid and supply. Cities also proposed projects in solar energy, electric vehicles, waste to energy and LED lighting, indicating their appetite for low-carbon projects. While cities were given institutional space to prioritise certain technologies, their interventions were conditioned by centrally sources of financing which were limited to certain mandated technologies. A focus on technology, rather than planning, undermined the role of cities as strategic decision-makers. What emerges is a dual faced reading of the Smart Cities Mission, indicating the potential and pitfalls of contemporary decentralized energy governance in the Global South.

The full working paper can be accessed here.

Watch the full video (above) of the panel discussion on ‘Options for Afghanistan: The Trump Tweets and After’ featuring Saad Mohseni (Director, Moby Group); Tahir Qadiry (Chargé d’Affaires, Embassy of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, New Delhi); Jayant Prasad (former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan); Amar Sinha (Member, National Security Advisory Board and former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan); Gautam Mukhopadhaya (Senior Visiting Fellow, CPR and former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan); and chaired by Jyoti Malhotra (Editor, National and Strategic Affairs, ThePrint).

On September 9, 2019, a draft interim agreement, reached after nine rounds of talks between US Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, and the Taliban was abruptly called off by President Trump through a tweet, ostensibly on account of the death of a US serviceman in a Taliban suicide attack. In the tweet, President Trump also revealed that he had secretly invited Taliban leaders and President Ghani separately to Camp David to clinch the talks under his personal supervision. This too was cancelled.

The talks, which the Afghan government has not been part of but has been regularly briefed on, centred primarily on a partial timetable for a withdrawal of US troops from five bases in Afghanistan within 135 days, and the kick-starting of intra-Afghan talks in two weeks as part of a composite package that the US maintains. This package includes guarantees that Afghan soil would not be used against the US, a comprehensive ceasefire, and intra-Afghan talks leading to a peace agreement between the two sides, and possibly an interim government. Its suspension took place against a background of a wave of violence in Afghanistan that included major offensives against key provincial capitals and suicide attacks in Kabul, weeks before a delayed Presidential elections scheduled for September 28, 2019.

The panel organised by CPR discussed the status and contents of US-Taliban talks, as well as the importance of the September 28 elections.

The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.

The media coverage of the panel discussion can be read in ThePrint and The Hindu.

CPR scholars have closely followed these developments and analysed the geopolitical implications for India. Read the curated analysis below:

• Why India Must Support Free And Fair Elections In Afghanistan by Gautam Mukhopadhaya

Gautam Mukhopadhaya writes in Outlook India about the need to create a stable environment for the upcoming presidential elections in Afghanistan. Calling the USA’s proposed deal with the Taliban ‘a recipe for chaos’, Mukhopadhaya highlights that India must not hesitate in supporting the elections as that will be a huge morale booster for Afghans.

• In Afghan peace derailment, a wagon of hope by Gautam Mukhopadhaya

Gautam Mukhopadhaya writes in The Hindu about how ‘the suspension of US-Taliban talks has opened the space for the holding of Afghan presidential elections and a window of opportunity for the international community and India to reset their approach to peace and withdrawal.’ He highlights that the outcome of the election ‘could provide a stronger foundation for talks with the Taliban that are Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled, and not as dictated from Washington, Islamabad, Doha or Moscow.’

• [WATCH]: The Real Story Behind Trump’s Afghan Bombshell and What it Means for India

Gautam Mukhopadhaya also appeared in an interview with The Wire where he analysed Donald Trump’s decision to call off talks with the Taliban, highlighting what was wrong with the Khalilzad deal and what India should do next.

• [WATCH]: ‘Pause In U.S.-Taliban Talks Is Time To Reset, Have Taliban-Afghan Talks’

Gautam Mukhopadhaya appeared in an interview with Strategic News International analysing the stalling of US-Taliban talks. Additionally, Mukhopadhaya delivered a lecture on Democratisation in Afghanistan organised by The International Institute for Strategic Studies.

• US shouldn’t exit Afghanistan in haste by G Parthasarathy

In August 2019, G Parthasarathy wrote in The Hindu Business Line about how a phased out withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will give the Afghan army and ethnic militia time to be well-armed and trained to face the Taliban. Parthasarathy further highlighted that if ‘Southern Afghanistan is destabilised, Pakistan’s own stability will face challenges from across the Durand Line.’

• The Uncongenial Zone: Donald Trump shows India the limits of friendship with the US by Brahma Chellaney

In July 2019, Brahma Chellaney wrote in DailyO about how Donald Trump’s Faustian bargain with the Pakistan-sponsored Taliban will seriously impinge on India’s regional interests and security, especially in the Kashmir Valley. Against the backdrop of Trump’s offer to mediate the Kashmir conflict and other actions such as barring oil shipments from Iran and raising India’s energy-import bill, expelling India from the US Generalised System of Preferences, and mounting a trade war to secure Indian concessions, Chellaney highlights that India should be deeply concerned about Trump putting India at risk by emboldening Pakistan.

In the third instalment of a monthly op-ed series in the Hindustan Times entitled ‘Clearing the Air’, Professor Navroz K Dubash examines the elements of a long-term plan that could address the root causes of India’s air pollution crisis.

We are in the midst of that season in north India, when air quality debates die down, and parents send their children out to play. After all, the air quality index suggests “moderate” and “poor” air days, with hardly a “very poor” or “severe”. Of course, at moderate levels, the level of PM2.5 is still 2.5-3.5 times the World Health Organization (WHO) safe levels, and poor is 3.5-5 times higher. But given what Delhi feels like in the winter months, February and March seem positively inviting. After all, one cannot worry about air quality all year round, right?

Unfortunately, wrong. We may have no option but to send our children out to play, but we should also be simultaneously working hard on long-term solutions. During the apocalyptic winter months, justifiable cries of alarm translate to reactive measures: an (ineffectual) firecracker ban, throwing money at “Happy Seeders” to stop crop burning, and periodic bans on truck traffic. Some short-term response measures are needed for emergencies. But to make a real dent in the air problem requires measures to address the deep-rooted causes and not simply react to the symptoms. This is best done when we are not in panic mode.

The recent National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) is a missed opportunity to establish a long-term strategy. It sets a target without a realistic road map, proposes a city-based approach that downplays regional effects, and adopts a something-for-everyone approach rather than prioritising action. In the midst of election season, formulating a serious approach to air quality plan remains a missed political opportunity. So, what are elements of a long-term plan that truly starts the long, slow business of addressing root causes?

First, a truly effective strategy will place the challenge of ensuring compliance and enabling enforcement at the heart of pollution regulation. Too often, actions are written as if enforcement is a secondary challenge when it is actually primary. For example, to limit industrial pollution, will a combination of monitoring technology, strengthened laws, and enhanced capabilities of pollution control authorities work? Or is the enforcement challenge so great that we should simply force industries to switch to cleaner, if costlier, fuels, which may be easier to monitor? The answer is not entirely clear, but this is the question that should inform strategic policymaking.

Second, many pollution sources need multifaceted responses. For example, waste burning may best be addressed by upstream shifts in consumer behaviour, to limit waste at source. Transport emissions need a mix of public transport investments, behavioural change in transport patterns, and new transport technologies such as electric vehicles. Reactive solutions, such as banning waste burning or certain forms of transport, are but band aids.

Third, many solutions require negotiated solutions to political and economic challenges. Crop burning is unlikely to be solved by a technical solution if not burning crops costs more. The resolution lies in political negotiations around cropping pattern shifts, agricultural support policies and water use policies. Political negotiations take time and need to start now, before pressure for quick fixes sets in.

Fourth, a city-by-city approach is invariably limited. Much pollution occurs outside cities — by industry, brick kilns, power plants and crop burning. City boundary based regulation only encourages emissions leakage such as relocation of industries to the outskirts. India has to develop regulatory institutions that operate at the level of the regional “airshed”.

Fifth, we need to pick a short list of big wins to demonstrate progress and rally the public. But equally, these need to be carefully selected and maximally supported rather than the current scattershot approach. The Ujjwala scheme to provide clean cooking gas, introducing Bharat Stage VI fuels, improved power plant regulations and investment in public transport are three winning medium-term solutions. A strategic and limited set of such solutions need aggressive action.

Let us not fool ourselves. North India’s air pollution will not improve substantially for at least a few years. The scale is too large, the pollution patterns too entrenched, and the enforcement challenges too deep. But this time frame of years will stretch to decades if we do not lay the groundwork now. Reactive, limited and short-term action taken in the panic of the winter smog won’t even put us on the path to a medium-term solution. We have to keep our eye on the ball, even when the air appears clear, and invest in the necessary long-term technological, institutional and political changes.

Navroz K Dubash is a Professor at the Centre for Policy Research. This is the third article in a monthly op-ed series in the Hindustan Times entitled ‘Clearing the Air.’ The original article, which was posted on April 4, 2019, can be found here.

Read more in the Clearing the Air series:

• India needs environmental governance
• Green industrial policy is a timely idea for India to explore
• Can India grow now and clean up later? No, it can’t
• How to Avoid the Middle Income Trap

The Accountability Initiative (AI) at the Centre for Policy Research is delighted to share its PAISA for Panchayats report. This research extends AI’s PAISA methodology to track fund flows, and implementations processes at the rural local government level.

Watch the video above where TR Raghunandan, Advisor to AI, explains the motivation behind undertaking this research, the main findings and recommendations to the government, as well as AI’s plans to extend this work to other states in India.

This research focuses on understanding the state of fiscal devolution to rural local governments, and answers two key questions:

• What are the overall trends in fiscal devolution to Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI) in Karnataka?
• How much money do Gram Panchayats actually receive?

By analysing fund flows in 30 Gram Panchayats in Mulbagal taluk, Kolar district, Karnataka, this research shows that despite the state’s pioneering efforts in improving intergovernmental fiscal transfers, the system clearly falls short of Karnataka’s vision for effective devolution to Panchayats.

To read the report, click on the links:

• Policy Brief
• Executive Summary
• Full report