Industrial Foods and Cultural Identities in India

FULL VIDEO OF TALK
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Watch the full video (above) of the talk by Amita Baviskar on the role of processed foods in the cultural imagination of Indians across regions, classes, and the rural-urban continuum.

Baviskar argues that the consumption practices industrial foods engender are productive sites for imagining citizenship cutting across social hierarchies, creating new identities, and diluting stigmatised ones.

Amita Baviskar is Professor of Sociology at the Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi.

Industrial Units and Other Projects Operating Without Environmental Clearances to be Legalised?

MANJU MENON AND KANCHI KOHLI COMMENT ON THE ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY’S NEW NOTIFICATION
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE

Violating units to be put through a simplified EC process, no public hearings, and EIAs (Environmental Impact Assessment) only to determine conditions of clearance.

This piece can also be accessed in: हिंदी | ગુજરાતી | ಕನ್ನಡ | ନୀୟ

On March 14, 2017, the Environment Ministry issued a notification providing a chance to all projects operating without Environmental Clearances (EC) to apply for ECs. Basically, the government has offered a scheme to turn illegal projects into legal units just as tax defaulters are offered a one-time reprieve. However, this notification will have any effect only if violators take up this offer.

Last year in May, the Ministry had issued a draft notification, which proposed that projects/activities that have violated the EIA notification be allowed to continue their activities by agreeing to an Environment Supplemental Plan (ESP). After having received criticism for this draft (see submission by CPR-Namati EJ program, policy brief by Shibani Ghosh of CPR, and Ritwick Dutta’s article in the Deccan Herald), the Ministry has now issued a revised final notification. In this version, the government has put in place a process by which the Expert Appraisal Committee at the Central level will determine the conditions for their continued operations. The Ministry has so far not put out any list of violating projects that could apply under this scheme.

Projects that could benefit from this scheme that invites them to apply for EC within six months may have grabbed land illegally, by coercion or deceit, set up their units and operated without any environmental regulations or social safeguards in place. Past cases and studies on illegal operations by projects have shown that those who flout environmental norms are the ones with deep pockets and close ties to those in power. The lack of effective monitoring by regulatory agencies such as the Pollution Control Boards and the regional offices of the Environment Ministry has caused these violations to take place with impunity. Project violations continue unchecked for years, and despite complaints from neighbourhoods, panchayats and local authorities.

The CPR-Namati EJ Program sought information regarding the process and materials that were being considered by the Ministry to finalise this notification. An RTI application was filed on 31.10.2016 with the Ministry’s Public Information Officer (PIO) seeking details of the discussions, revision and finalisation of draft notification S.O. 1705(E), dated 10.05.2016, regarding the use of Environmental Supplemental Plan. However, the Ministry ignored the application and no information was provided. The first appeal was filed on 16.01.2017. This appeal, too, was completely disregarded. Now the Ministry has gone ahead and issued the new notification S.O. 804(E) on 14.03.2017. Yet again, the Ministry is in violation of the judgement of the Central Information Commission in CIC/SA/A/2016/000209, ordering the Ministry to provide information regarding the process of finalisation of policies in the interest of the public. This notification, which deals with the important issue of non-compliance by projects and what actions are to be taken in this regard, is of significant relevance to the lives of many people suffering the impacts of these illegal projects, and affects the environment as well. By denying access to information regarding the process by which this notification was finalised, the government has denied citizens and experts the opportunity to participate in such decision-making.

Thus, this notification shows the government’s support for industrial and corporate corruption and illegality despite all the talk about rooting out corruption.

Main issues with the Notification:

Besides the issue of regularising projects that have violated laws and that operate without environmental safeguards, the process of regularisation laid out in the notification shows how governments favour these projects. The process shields them from public consultation procedures and denies a hearing to those who have suffered public harms on account of these violating units.

Notification: The cases of violating units will be brought to the Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) at the central level (irrespective of whether the project is Category A or B). The EAC will check if the project violates any legal siting norms (like forest areas and CRZ – Coastal Regulation Zone) or if the expansion can run sustainably with compliance of environmental conditions and safeguards. If the EAC finds these two aspects to be negative, then they can recommend closure.
Comment: This principle goes against the rule of law because violating units are given a chance for a back door entry. At this stage the EAC does not have enough information about the project expansion to decide whether it can run sustainably or if the siting is without ecological and social impacts as it has no studies or information related to impacts to go by. Such information will only be provided after the decision on the project is taken by the EAC. Also, it is highly unlikely that projects that are up and running will be closed down under this process. In fact, it is because the government does not want to close illegal projects that this scheme is being provided.

Notification: If the EAC decides that the project can be allowed to continue, then the project needs to undertake an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) based on a Terms of Reference and Environment Management Plan (EMP), and conduct an assessment of ecological damage; prepare a remediation plan; and a natural and community resource augumentation plan as an independent chapter of the EIA report. This is to be done by a National Accreditation Board for Education and Training (NABET)–Quality Council of India (QCI) certified consultant and a lab authorized by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).
Comment: As per the process set up in the Notification, this EIA and EMP related steps will not have any influence on the decision of the project as the decision to legalise the project would be taken by the EAC before the EIA is drafted, as mentioned in the previous point. In this Notification, the EIA is only to determine mitigation and compensatory measures. There is no scope of a public hearing either after the EIA report is drafted as is the usual norm in the process of grant of environment clearance. So the government is offering a ‘simplified’ EIA process to the violator.

Notification: The EAC has to determine that these plans take into account the damage to the environment and the economic benefits gained by violating the law. This is to be done by adding conditions in the Environment Clearance (EC) letter issued to the project.
Comment: This is a form of regularising the violation as the shortened EIA process comes after the decision to regularise the project and the EIA’s only function is to provide knowledge about what kinds of conditions and safeguards need to be added to the project’s EC letter. In effect, thiw would only offset the damage caused by the violation as opposed to putting a stop to it. Going by the track record of compliance to conditions, these new sets of conditions may also end up being only on paper. Even though there is a mention that the natural and community resource augmentation plan will be prepared, there is no process in this to speak to affected people and find out what impacts they have faced, which need remedies (please see recent report on effectiveness of environment regulation).

Notification: The violator has to submit a bank guarantee to the State Pollution Control Board (SPCB). The amount should be equal to the amount of the cost of the various plans (management, remediation and augmentation). The costing will be determined by the EAC. The Bank guarantee should be deposited before the EC is granted and returned after the successful implementation of the plans.
Comment: The government cannot singly determine what ‘successful implementation’ is. The Vapi case is a good example, where even though pollution on the ground has not reduced, and the Vapi Action Plan has not been fully implemented, the government has removed its ‘critically polluted’ tag, allowing for more projects to be set up there. There is no mechanism here which indicates how the SPCB and EAC will coordinate to supervise this.

Notification: The SPCB will not grant Consent to Operate or occupancy to these violating projects until the EC process is completed.
Comment: The notification says that once the violating project is identified, the state/SPCB will take action under Section 19 of the Environment (Protection) Act. This section bars the courts from taking notice of the violation until it is brought to them by the central government or a designated authority or by any person (who has given a 60 day notice to the government or designated authority).

This one-time amnesty through the latest notification has been offered by the government for units that have violated the EIA notification and set up operations without ECs until the date of this notification. Units have to apply for ECs within six months from the date of this notification. The notification does not state what will be done to violating units that do not apply for EC within this period. It also does not state if this is only a one-time amnesty or whether there will be more such opportunities and also about what will be done with units that violate EIA norms after this notification date. Finally, there are several other environmental norms that are violated as much as the EIA notification. Will this be the treatment for those cases too?

Informal Plans, Planned Informality

CPR CO-ORGANISES WORKSHOP AT HK-SHENZHEN BIENNALE
URBAN SERVICES

The Government of India’s premier think tank NITI Aayog, in its three-year action agenda, has called for India to replicate the success of Shenzhen in China, not just as a successful Special Economic Zone but also as a shining example of organized urbanisation and modernization. Worldwide, Shenzhen has been upheld as a model for its rapid growth, for the boomtown phenomenon it spearheaded nicknamed ‘Shenzhen Speed’, earning it the moniker ‘Instant City’. But there’s more to Shenzhen than meets the eye. Can its success really be replicated? Can we really learn from Shenzhen, and if yes, how?

The urbanisation team at the Centre for Policy Research has been, since 2016, in a dialogue with scholars working on Shenzhen, to explore some of these questions. On 12-14 January 2018, CPR co-organised a workshop

Titled ‘Informal Plans, Planned Informality: Shenzhen as Model and Field’ at the Hong Kong/Shenzhen Architecture and Urbanism Biennale (UABB) to examine one of Shenzhen’s most prominent but least understood characteristics, the role of informality in the success of the city. The workshop was conceptualized by Mary Ann O’Donnell (Handshake 302, Shenzhen), Jonathan Bach (Associate Professor, Global Studies, The New School, New York) and Mukta Naik (Senior Researcher, CPR, New Delhi) and supported by the India China Institute.

Looking at informality as a necessary element of contemporary urbanisation, the workshop was an empirical exploration of how informality produces, and is produced by, the coevolution of the planned and the unplanned most visibly expressed by the continued relevance of, and changing State attitude to, urban villages. On Day 1, presentations by young scholars Kim Do Dom (PhD candidate in Anthropology at University of Chicago), Cai Yifan (PhD Candidate in Geography at Clark University) and Fu Na (Graduate Student, New School) generated a lively discussion on elements of informality in the realms of citizenship, intellectual property rights and entrepreneurship in Shenzhen. Post-lunch, Shaun Teo’s (PhD Candidate in Geography, University College London) guided exploration of the UABB venue and exhibits offered insights into the salient urban questions being asked by practitioners and researchers in the Pearl River Delta. Inclusion, participation, identity and sustainability were some of the recurring themes, in line with the UABB’s intention of being a space for critical thinking and free expression. Ironically Nantou village, its main site, was both sanitised and under surveillance, raising questions about the impact of large events on city neighborhoods.

On Day 2, Indian scholars took the stage, viewing Shenzhen ‘from’ India. CPR researchers Partha Mukhopadhyay and Mukta Naik reacted to the book ‘Learning from Shenzhen’ edited by Jonathan Bach, Mary Ann O’Donnell and Winnie Wong using examples of four Indian urban projects—Dholera, Sri City, Amravati and Gurgaon. Vamsi Valukabharanam from University of Massachusetts, Amherst, spoke about spatial inequalities in Indian cities, using the example of Hyderabad. Rohit Negi from Ambedkar University, Delhi, used the conversation on air quality in urban locations as a theme to explore the intersections between urban equity and ecology. Du Juan from Hong Kong University presented innovative design work done at her design lab that helped improve the habitat of renters in Hong Kong’s ultra-crowded subdivided apartments. In the afternoon, participants were treated to an exploration of Shennan Boulevard, Shenzhen’s major east-west road, led by anthropologist Zhou Ximin.

The conversations from the morning sessions spilled over onto the delectable lunches on both days, as participants discovered mutual interests, satisfied their curiosity about new cultures and raised provocative questions. It was no surprise that the writing workshop conducted by Mary Ann on Day 3, emerged as both introspection and synthesis, a delightful discovery of the power of written word to merge sentiment with academic insight.

A final visit to the Shekou Museum of Reform and Opening reminded us that as much as Shenzhen was a product of the selective absence of the State, it was also born of innovation and vision in the aftermath of Maoist socialism. In the spirit of comparison, we believe that studying Shenzhen, and perhaps other Chinese citymaking experiments, can reveal alternate possibilities to Indian cities, especially in accommodating informality even as they pursue the dream of modernity and ‘world-class’ urbanity. The workshop, in this sense, was another step in a continuing effort to “track algorithms that constantly produce…borders, which in turn keep re-producing the city”. As Mary Ann asks in her highly nuanced workshop report, “what does it mean…. to document uncertainty?”

Informal rentals in Gurgaon: Lived experiences of renters

TAKEWAYS FROM JOURNAL ARTICLE BY MUKTA NAIK
URBAN ECONOMY URBAN SERVICES

In an article titled, Negotiation, mediation and subjectivities: How migrant renters experience informal rentals in Gurgaon’s urban villages, published in Radical Housing Journal, Mukta Naik explores the experience of low-income migrant renters in the informal rental markets of Gurgaon that are controlled and managed by village landlords. The article builds on qualitative fieldwork conducted in Nathupur village in 2013-14 and Sikanderpur village in 2017, both urban villages bordering Delhi and some of the earliest to experience land acquisition and formal sector private real estate development in Gurgaon, to shed light on living conditions, nature of landlord-tenant relationships and strategies of mediation adopted by migrant renters.

Highlighting takeaways from the article, this blog describes how informal rentals – broadly understood as housing located in settlements without formal tenure and/or without registered lease documentation – are organised in Gurgaon and offers insights into the lived experience of migrant renters in urban villages, which have absorbed the lion’s share of rural-urban migration into the city especially in the 2001-2011 decade.

Types of Landlordism

Naik builds on London School of Economics Professor Sunil Kumar’s work to classify landlords in informal rentals into three types: subsistence, petty-bourgeois and petty-capitalist. It is often the landlord household’s caste position within the village and the community that determines the kind of landlordism they exhibit. Closely related is the access to land and capital that they have, the latter a function of how much agricultural land they sold to private developers when this part of Gurgaon city was being developed in the ‘80s.
Rental typologies: Affordability and living conditions

Urban villages in Gurgaon exhibit a range of informal rentals for migrant tenants with different levels of income and varying expectations in terms of amenities, privacy and security. Naik’s earlier work describes the range of informal rental housing available in urban villages in Gurgaon, from shacks with temporary construction to the ubiquitous tenements and increasingly one-room sets for middle-income renters. Rental prices are higher for properties with better quality of construction and migrant renters opt for housing that they can afford and that is near their workplace.

While informal rentals are successful is creating housing supply across price points, the levels of service are generally low because urban villages are under serviced, with severe water shortage issues and inadequate sewer networks. And even though landlords and tenants suffer because of this, additional strictures like rationed water, overpriced electricity, poor construction quality and poor light and ventilation means that renters particularly experience crowding and poor living conditions.

Perception influences contractual arrangements

Despite the unequal power relations, however, Naik finds that landlords depend significantly on rentals for household incomes and migrant tenants share a symbiotic relationship with the landlord, representing them as sometimes benevolent and at other times oppressive in their accounts. Perhaps because of this, the ubiquitous oral form of contract with exclusively cash payments, is not seen as a tool of exploitation by tenants. While landlords can enforce oral contracts through the mere threat of violent repercussions, which acts as a deterrent for rent defaults, tenants leverage informality to move through the city flexibly as they seek work. Emerging forms of documentation like police verifications, employer endorsements and tenant registrations in the wake of growing paranoia around security, terrorism and illegal refugees in India’s national discourse, indicate some start points for thinking about formalisation. Clearly, perception matters in contractual agreements. The wide use of oral contracts and the underlying forms of trusts, as well as contrasting moves towards documentation, complicate the notions of secure occupancy in the context of informal rentals.

Landlord-tenants relations inherently unequal, exploitative

Landlord-tenant relations remain inherently unequal across the board. Migrants cannot contend with the political power that landlords have. They maintain this by colluding to keep migrants off electoral rolls, mostly by refusing them proof of address that would enable migrants to register as local voters.

These unequal power relationships result in certain specific forms of exploitation. Migrants are often considered captive customers and forced to buy rations from the landlord’s grocery store or that landlords impose behavioural norms on tenants. Tenants report particular discomfort with the surveillance that they are subjected to by landlords, who often have a shop on the street level, which can be used to watch the comings and goings of tenants. This surveillance is ostensibly intended to ensure that tenants do not overcrowd or damage their premises and use water responsibly, but also to monitor visitors. Surveillance assumes moralistic overtones, seeking to ensure that tenants of opposite genders do not mix, outside of marriage. Tenants also face discrimination on the basis of ethnicity and gender in informal rental housing. In Gurgaon, surveillance is particularly harsh for unmarried women and young girls.

Despite the inequality, Naik finds points of connect between landlords and tenants. Subsistence and petty-bourgeois landlords often have close and long-term relationships with their renters, often going out of their way to help them; not hiking rents, permitting time extensions on rent payments, helping them start small businesses. Tenants in larger rental clusters often did not know their landlord directly, but in several cases trusted caretakers acted as intermediaries, smoothening daily functioning of tenements.

Experiences of discrimination and exploitation notwithstanding, tenants commonly characterise the landlord as ‘good’ or ‘helpful’. Landlords see themselves as protectors of tenants, with nearly every landlord in the sample mentioning their role in resolving disputes amongst tenants. The tenant’s status in the urban village appears to be affiliated with that of the landlords, for instance, tenants of politically powerful, rich or upper caste landlords enjoyed an implicit protection from harassment.

Mediation and negotiation helps migrants gain footholds

Within this context, Naik finds that migrant tenants leverage informal rentals in particular ways to secure a small foothold in Gurgaon’s urban economy. The diversity of rental typologies helps migrants find housing of varying quality at price points that suit their income situations. They use the flexibility that oral contracts offer to move ‘through’ the city, as they seek remunerative work. Migrants routinely use praise for their landlords as a way to appease them, while simultaneously being vocal about their negative experiences. Exploiting the economic dependence of landlords on rental incomes, they carefully navigate the good landlord/bad landlord narrative to carve out independent identities over time, to achieve regular employment and local identification papers to enable a long-term stay in the city. In contrast to these subtle negotiations, female renters from northeast India resist the objectification they face from male landlords and village residents in Sikanderpur simply by continuing to wear westernised clothing and claiming the streets as retail customers and pedestrian commuters. By not cooperating with the patriarchal norms that landlords seek to impose, these women exhibit what Scott calls ‘everyday forms of resistance.’

India Speak Episode 7: Dissecting India’s Problem of Economic Inequality

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY

The slowdown of economic activity experienced due to the lockdowns resulted in a significant impact on the lives of the poorest. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Dr Maitreesh Ghatak (Professor of Economics, London School of Economics) to discuss India’s inequality problem. How unequal is India? Are these inequalities because of COVID or merely economic realities that COVID has now exposed? How do we bring India back on a more equitable growth path?

Dr Ghatak who has written extensively on the inequalities of the Indian economy walks us through the issue of widening inequality in the context of the pandemic, unpacks the growth versus inequality debate, and discusses the long term implications the pandemic has posed. He explains the impact on the informal sector, intergenerational mobility, and discusses the dynamics of potential recovery.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

India Speak Episode 8: An Inside View of Delhi Government’s Oxygen Control Room

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY

The second wave of COVID-19 left an already-strained health system crumbling. As one of the initial states hit by the surge of cases, Delhi faced many challenges ensuring adequate oxygen supply to patients. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Shailendra Sharma (Education Advisor, Delhi Government) about his experience of working and supporting the oxygen control room that was set up in response to the crisis by the Delhi Government. Why did the oxygen crisis happen and how was it overcome? What was it like to be a Front Line Worker in this crisis? How did the government react? What were the big challenges during that period?

Sharma discusses what it was like to be in the thick of that control room, confronting a crisis of deep distress but also concerns of managing the health system in the midst of constant SOS messages about lack of basic supplies and most importantly, oxygen. He speaks about the role of the courts in fixing responsibility and bringing in some transparency to the process of allocation. Finally, Sharma elaborates on the logistical and technical complexities in ramping up oxygen supply and its distribution across hospitals.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

India Speak: Unpacking the Crisis in Afghanistan

In this episode of India Speak, Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow at CPR speaks with Ambassador Gautam Mukhopadhaya, former Ambassador to Afghanistan (2010-13) and Senior Visiting Fellow, CPR.

Two weeks before the US was set to complete its troop withdrawal from the region, the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan. Major cities fell in a matter of days as the Afghan military and government collapsed rapidly. Chaos ensued as Afghan citizens thronged the airport to flee, some even clinging on to the wheels of a US military aircraft, in a desperate bid to escape the country. What does a takeover by the Taliban mean for Afghanistan, particularly its citizens who have enjoyed the freedoms of the last 20 years? How were the Taliban able to get control so quickly and efficiently? Did India see it coming?

Mukhopadhaya discusses the geopolitical ramifications of this development, the impending impact on women’s rights, and the state of India-US relations. He also highlights how India should best approach this crisis and what the future course of action should be, given past reluctance to talk with the Taliban.

India’s economic engagement in Asia: how should it change after Ladakh?

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ECONOMY

Watch the full video (above) of the webinar on ‘India’s economic engagement in Asia: how should it change after Ladakh?’ featuring Ambassador Shyam Saran (Former Foreign Secretary & Senior Fellow, CPR); Dr C Raja Mohan (Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore); Ambassador Mohan Kumar [Chairperson, Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS]); Suman Bery [Former Director-General, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)]; and Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR).

India has been engaged with the countries of East Asia through a range of platforms. On security issues the East Asian Summit dominates (which now includes Russia and the United States). On economic cooperation the central structure is ASEAN+6 (ASEAN’s 10 members together with Japan, Korea, China, India, Australia), all of whom also participate in the East Asia Summit.

India withdrew last November from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement, the signature project of ASEAN+6 . Even though Japan, Korea, Indonesia and Australia (all G20 members) are party to the negotiations, the Indian press has dubbed the agreement ‘Chinese-led’. The other 15 members are yet to conclude the agreement.

Since then, Asia has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic. Concurrently India is among several countries in the region exposed to a more assertive security posture by China, leading to the tragic death of Indian soldiers at Chinese hands in Ladakh.

A recent report by a group of economists from ASEAN+6 countries argues that economic and medical cooperation across ASEAN+6 can lead the global recovery from the pandemic. China, India and Japan are three of the four largest economies in the G20 and may be able to make headway at a time when tensions between China and the US are high. There is also little doubt that the major ASEAN countries, as well as Japan and Australia, would welcome India’s constructive engagement in such regional cooperation. Yet given its volatile security relationship with China and its own domestic economic and political preoccupations, India may wish to stay away, as it has with the RCEP.

This webinar assessed India’s interests and options in regional economic engagement with other Asian powers in navigating a post-pandemic world.

India’s Economy in a Hole: Keep Digging?

FULL VIDEO OF THE DISCUSSION ORGANISED BY THE STATE CAPACITY INITIATIVE
ECONOMY

Watch the full video (above) of the discussion on ‘India’s Economy in a Hole: Keep Digging?’ featuring Lant Pritchett and Ajay Shah, organised by the State Capacity Initiative at CPR.

Weak capability for implementation and beautiful rules create complex deals. Complex deals can create a rapidly growing economy, but at the same time prevent the move to rules. Hence, the paradox can be move to rules that can be good in the long run but bad in the short term, or move to deals that are good in the short term but not in the long run. This talk unpacked these relationships and dynamics in the context of the Indian economy and state capacity.

Lant Pritchett is a Senior Visiting Fellow at CPR.

Ajay Shah is a Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

India’s Foreign Policy in an Uncertain World

AS PART OF ‘POLICY CHALLENGES – 2019-2024: THE BIG POLICY QUESTIONS FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT AND POSSIBLE PATHWAYS’
CPR INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

By Shyam Saran

The foremost foreign policy challenge for the incoming government will be to adapt to a changing world order. Even as Western dominance has diminished, no power has emerged that is capable of inheriting its mantle. Therefore, the current phase of disruption and altered relations among states is likely to continue. It is also becoming clear that the US and China are moving from competition to confrontation. Balancing relations with these two countries will become more difficult and India will have to contend with pressures to join one camp or another. Against this geopolitical backdrop, the new government will have to fashion a foreign policy that offers opportunities for expanding India’s strategic space even as it seeks to tackle increasingly complex challenges. Some of these are discussed below.

Challenges, Old and New

While dealing with China has always remained one of India’s biggest foreign policy challenges, today the asymmetry in economic and military capabilities between the two Asian giants is expanding rather than shrinking. Managing relations with China has involved confronting it whenever Indian interests are threatened but also being willing to work together where interests are convergent. This has served India well and may continue to be the template for the foreseeable future. Currently China has been presenting a more benign and accommodating face towards India. This is the result of pressures it is feeling from the US, not only on trade but also in the realm of security. While China’s current stance is tactical, India should take advantage of this window to advance its interests wherever possible but without losing sight of the fact that the long-term challenge is to narrow the power gap with its northern neighbour. If the asymmetry continues to grow this will inevitably constrict India’s room for manoeuvre.

Moreover, despite the Middle Kingdom’s changed approach, New Delhi will continue to face challenges from it in at least a few aspects of foreign policy. India’s subcontinental neighbourhood is the most critical for its national security, and China’s presence and activism threatens India’s dominant position. India is unable to match the resources China is able to deploy in the countries of the region. This trend is unlikely to change even if China adopts a relatively friendly posture towards India.

Pakistan is unlikely to abandon its use of cross-border terrorism as an instrument of state policy though there may be tactical remissions. Despite the Indian government adopting a more aggressive retaliatory policy recently, it is debatable whether this has changed Islamabad’s strategic calculus.

The Gulf and West Asia remain important for India’s energy security, for the welfare of the six million Indians who live and work there, and because sectarian conflict in the region can have spillover effects on the fragile multi-religious fabric of the Indian state. The new government will have to deal with the ratcheting up of sanctions against Iran by the US. India may have to cut its imports from Iran which is likely to adversely affect its relations with Iran. This may have severe repercussions: Iran is important to India not only for meeting its energy needs but, more importantly, because of the stakes involved in India’s development of the Chahbahar port on the Iranian coast and the Northern highway into Afghanistan and Central Asia from it. Iran will also play an important role in Afghanistan where a political transition seems inevitable with the Taliban regaining a prominent political role. For the new government both Iran and Afghanistan will be key challenges.

Recommendations

Against this background, the new government must add substance and energy to the “neighbourhood first” policy. Fresh emphasis must be laid on regular political level engagement and on expanding the density of economic and trade relations with neighbours. Proximity is a key asset in promoting economic relations but they also require investment in both physical connectivity and the smooth and speedy passage of goods and peoples across borders. India is the transit country for all its neighbours and its transport infrastructure is more than adequate to handle transit traffic from one end of the subcontinent to the other. It will gain more political leverage vis-à-vis its neighbours by becoming the transit country of choice for them rather than by restricting access. India’s economic cooperation programmes in its neighbouring countries do not match China’s, but they are significant. The Achilles heel is poor delivery on those commitments compared to China. The new government should set up an autonomous Economic Cooperation Agency to manage all its economic assistance programmes in foreign countries, including lines of credit, capacity building and project assistance. While such a proposal has been on the table for a few years now, without any action, the changed South Asian dynamic (with China rapidly expanding its footprint) necessitates its reconsideration on an urgent basis.

Relations with Pakistan remain hostage to its addiction to cross-border terrorism. Repeated efforts to improve relations with Pakistan have been stalled due to terrorist attacks inflicted on India by terrorist groups aided and abetted by Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies. As long as Pakistan enjoys a strong Chinese shield and the US seeks Pakistani support for its withdrawal from Afghanistan, India’s efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally will have only limited success. On the other hand, rising tensions between India and Pakistan bring back the hyphenation between the two countries and invite meddling by outside powers. The new government must find a way to bring about relative normalcy in relations with Pakistan without giving up the focus on terrorism. There are signs that Pakistan is uncomfortable with its heavy, almost singular dependence on China. It may be ready to balance this dependence through a measured improvement of relations with India. The opportunity of a summit with Imran Khan at the forthcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit may provide an opportunity to test this proposition.

For the foreseeable future, India is not in a position to single-handedly check rising Chinese power and influence. Therefore, it should seek to be part of a coalition of major powers which share its concerns about China. The new government must continue to strengthen relations with the US, Japan, Australia and South East Asia as part of countervailing and constraining Chinese power. India has been cautious about its role in the Quad, which is a grouping of the US, Japan, Australia and India, and serves as a forum for security consultations and cooperation. The new government should embrace a more significant role for the Quad while ensuring it remains below the threshold of a full-fledged military alliance. Australia should be invited to the next round of the Malabar Naval Exercise, which currently includes the US, Japan and India.

Deepening relations with Europe – particularly with Germany, which is now the most powerful country in the continent – must continue to be high on India’s foreign policy agenda even though Europe has been disappointingly unable to prevent the ongoing fragmentation of the European Union. Africa and Latin America will remain regions of interest, both for their economic potential and for imparting a global reach to India’s foreign policy.

During the past few years India’s relations with Russia have weakened despite regular summit level meetings. There may be a perception that Russia is irrevocably committed to its virtual alliance with China. However, Russia continues to be a major power and is not about to become a subordinate ally of China. Central Asia and Eastern Europe, which it regards as its near neighbourhood, are precisely the areas where China’s influence is expanding most visibly; this cannot but be a matter of concern to Russia. Furthermore, Russia remains a crucial source of high technology weaponry and military equipment, treating India as a privileged partner. The new government must review its Russia policy and endeavour to expand engagement with all levels of the Russian state.

Despite the unpredictability of the Trump administration, India-US relations have been consolidated. This is reflected most visibly in defence and counter-terrorism cooperation. The challenge for the new government will be in managing the economic/trade pillar of the relationship, which has become a contested space over the years. India has been a major beneficiary of globalization. Its economy has seen rapid growth resulting from a more open trade and investment regime. The temptation to walk back from this must be resisted because this will push India towards the margins of the global economy, reduce its political leverage, and put paid to any prospect of catching up with China.

Compared to other major countries of the world, India has an almost skeletal foreign service. In order to sustain foreign policy and live up to its ambitions of playing an active global role, India will need to significantly expand its foreign service corps. Moreover, the budget of the Ministry of External Affairs continues to be paltry compared to other ministries despite the critical role it plays in managing all aspects of India’s external relations. It is imperative that sufficient resources are made available to the ministry to enable it to deliver on its critical mandate in a globalized world.

Other pieces as part of CPR’s policy document, ‘Policy Challenges – 2019-2024’ can be accessed below: