India and the Imran Khan-led Pakistan

As former cricketer and leader of ‘Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’ (PTI), Imran Khan is elected the next Prime Minister of the country, it becomes important for India to ascertain the trajectory it is going to follow with respect to its neighbour. While the election was marred by allegations of rigging, military interference and violence, it is clear that Pakistan’s strategic relationship and foreign policy towards India will be impacted, especially when important issues like terrorism and Kashmir are on the table. In this curated media commentary below, CPR faculty analyse this important development across the border.

G Parthasarathy writes in ‘The Tribune’ about the involvement of the army in the elections of Pakistan, highlighting how it has backed the PTI, and undermined democratic processes and freedom by gagging the media and targeting those who go against its wishes. He further reiterates this in ‘The Economic Times’, detailing how the newly elected Prime Minister, who is often referred to as ‘Taliban Khan’, faces the challenge of acting against terrorism, given Pakistan’s dwindling foreign exchange reserves and the dire need of an IMF (International Monetary Fund) bailout. In ‘PrimeTimes.IN’, Parthasarathy underscores the role of the army in Nawaz Sharif’s ouster and arrest and the general elections of 2018 and its involvement in Pakistan’s policy towards countries like China, India, Afghanistan, and the US, among others. In ‘The New India Express’, he warns that ‘He (Imran Khan) will remain in power as long as he remembers that the real keys to power are not with him in Islamabad, but in the Army’s GHQ (General Headquarters) in Rawalpindi.’

Brahma Chellaney writes in the ‘Hindustan Times’ about how India should deal with the ‘Mecca of terrorism’ Pakistan has become. While ‘India’s policy pendulum on Pakistan actually swings from one extreme to the other — from vowing a decisive fight to making schmaltzy overtures’, Chellaney establishes that ‘after this contrived election, Pakistan seriously risks slipping deeper into a jihadist dungeon’.

Shyam Saran appeared on an episode of Wide Angle on ‘The Wire’ where he analysed the result of the Pakistan election and the repercussions it has on India, exploring whether this serves as an opportunity to resume structured dialogue with the country, given that Khan has called for increase in trade between the two neighbours.

India needs environmental governance

CLEARING THE AIR: NEW MONTHLY COLUMN IN THE HINDUSTAN TIMES BY NAVROZ K DUBASH
AIR POLLUTION POLITICS

In the first instalment of a monthly op-ed series in the Hindustan Times entitled Clearing the Air, Professor Navroz K Dubash argues that India must jettison the impoverished idea of an environment-development trade-off.

The government’s interim budget intriguingly included several broad environmental objectives in its Vision 2030. Included in its 10-point agenda were ease of living, a pollution-free India, and clean rivers. For the government to explicitly include environmental objectives is necessary and welcome. But in the absence of concrete measures — and there were almost none in this interim budget — simply laying out ambitious goals is far from sufficient.

It is important to understand just how dismal is the state of India’s environment. Three in five monitored rivers across the country are polluted. Much of our solid waste is unprocessed even in wealthy parts of the country — 90% in Maharashtra and 48% in Delhi. Three-quarters of India’s population lives in areas where air pollution (PM2.5, the most harmful pollutant) exceeds the Indian national standard, which itself is four times higher than the global standard. In fact, 72 of 640 districts in the northern belt have emissions more than 10 times worse than the global standard. Taken together, a recent Global Environmental Quality Performance Index ranked India 177th out of 180 countries.

This worrying situation is fundamentally one of health. Poor air, water and solid waste disposal affect the health of India’s citizens and particularly its children. For example, a WHO report suggests that 10% of the children who die before the age of five do so due to air pollution.

We have come to this sorry situation partly because of a mistaken notion that environmental quality is a luxury, and that pollution is a necessary, if unfortunate, side effect of development. Indira Gandhi’s oft-quoted line “poverty is the greatest polluter” has often been used to argue for a trade-off between poverty reduction and environmental protection, and that India should focus on the former. But as Jairam Ramesh noted in his book on Mrs Gandhi’s environmental thought, her message was nuanced: while the needs of the poor should indeed not be forgotten, they can and should be met without despoiling nature. Forty five years on, this is a nuance worth recovering.

Growing now and cleaning up later is a flawed approach for several reasons. First, and most important, the poor are the worst affected by environmental destruction. The livelihoods of farmers, fishers and forest dwellers are immediately affected by a degraded environment, and the poor are far less able to insulate themselves against dirty water and air than the rich. Pollution makes the impact of poverty worse.

Second, postponing cleaning up until we are rich is an impossible prospect: at a per capita GDP one-third of China’s, India already has more cities with chronic air pollution than China. Do we really want to be multiple times as polluted as China when we reach their GDP, let alone that of developed countries? Moreover, many of the effects of pollution are not easily reversible; ecosystems once destabilised cannot be returned to their original state.

Third, it is simplistic to think of environmental safeguards only as a drag on growth. A degraded environment itself has impacts on the economy: pollution adds to public health burdens; destroyed environments cannot provide ecosystem services such as filtering waste and buffering against storms; and degraded resources wreck the livelihoods of the poor. Moreover, as we move toward a knowledge economy, high-skilled talent will refuse to live in toxic urban environments. A despoiled environment will add to the cost of doing business.

Finally, going green can actually be a pathway to growth in a world where there is growing attention to the world’s oceans, climate and forests. The world is undergoing a renewable energy revolution, with a competitive advantage for countries best placed to seize the moment. Ideas of the circular economy — waste streams from one industrial process form inputs for another process — promise efficiency gains with both environmental and economic payoffs. Increasingly, there is more scope for growth through enhancing the environment than by devastating it.

To go beyond broad vision statements to effective action requires broader political mobilisation around demands for a healthier environment. There are pockets of mobilisation — resource dependent communities swept aside by industrial development and some urban elites beginning to prioritise environmental liveability over consumption — but these are isolated voices. Finally, sustainable growth requires smarter environmental governance. At the moment, every environmental problem is a nail waiting for the hammer of judicial or administrative enforcement. Instead we need to combine effective regulation, behavioural change and technological solutions to meet multiple social and ecological objectives. An important starting point is jettisoning the impoverished idea of an environment-development trade-off.

Navroz K Dubash is a Professor at the Centre for Policy Research. This is the first article in a monthly op-ed series in the Hindustan Times entitled ‘Clearing the Air.’ The original article, which was posted on February 6, 2019, can be found here.

Read more in the Clearing the Air series:

India Speak Episode 1: Impact of the Second Wave on the Economy

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

The Indian economy was going through an unprecedented slowdown that was exacerbated by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant national lockdown. Just as the economy was showing signs of recovery, the country has been hit by the virulent second wave. With multiple localised lockdowns, a halt on mobility and economic activity and an unprecedented health crisis, this time, the ravages of the pandemic are being felt across the nation, even rural areas.

What has been the impact of the second wave on India’s economy and how does it differ from the first wave? In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Pranjul Bhandari (Managing Director and Chief India Economist, HSBC). Bhandari sheds light on the state of India’s economy before the second wave hit, the implications of the second wave particularly for the informal sector and why it needs a special focus and what a policy response to the economic crisis from the Centre and states should look like.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

India Speak Episode 2: Impact of the Second Wave on Unemployment and Labour Force Participation

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

The second wave of the pandemic saw localised lockdowns across India that brought economic activities to a halt. What has been the impact of this on unemployment and labour force participation? In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Mahesh Vyas [Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE)]. Through its surveys, CMIE has been closely tracking the health of the Indian economy, particularly the labour market, consumer sentiment and investment patterns.

Vyas sheds light on the trends in unemployment and labour participation rates during the peak of the national lockdown, the phase of economic recovery and the second wave. He discusses the impact of increased informality and decreased female labour force participation and the lessons learned from the first wave of COVID-19. Further, he underscores the impact of the second wave on consumer sentiment and what the government must do to revive the economy. Finally, he discusses the need to monitor the economy regularly and ways to strengthen India’s statistical systems.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

India Speak Episode 3: Impact on Jobs, Incomes, Inequality and Poverty

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

The State of Working India 2021 report by the Centre for Sustainable Employment (CSE) at the Azim Premji University finds that the pandemic has further increased informality and led to a severe decline in earnings for the majority of workers resulting in a sudden increase in poverty. In particular, the poor, women and younger workers have disproportionately borne the brunt of the pandemic.

To discuss key findings of the report and more, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Amit Basole (Associate Professor of Economics and Head, CSE, Azim Premji University) in this episode of India Speak. Basole sheds light on the trends in employment patterns and the dynamics of informality in India’s labour market prior to the pandemic, to make sense of the slow structural transformation in the economy. He discusses the implications of the differentiated gender dynamics, the move to informality and the loss of income for India’s economy. He further highlights what the policy response should be to the immediate crisis and the lessons that can be learned from it.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

Episode 4: Responding to the Spread of COVID-19 in Rural India

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

Unlike last year during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the second wave witnessed the virus making inroads into rural areas of India as well. To discuss this and more, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Abhijit Chowdhury (Chief Advisor, Liver Foundation, West Bengal) in this episode of India Speak.

Chowdhury discusses what the on-ground realities look like in rural India. He sheds light on how the health system in these areas can be prepared to respond to this unfolding crisis. Finally, he discusses what it will take to achieve universal vaccination for all adults in these areas, advocating for a community-based approach to both treatment and vaccination.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

Episode 5: Realities of COVID-19 in Rural India

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST HEALTH

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic saw rural parts of India get affected as well, unlike the previous year during the first wave. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Anurag Behar (Chief Executive Officer, Azim Premji Foundation) to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in the hinterlands. How are people in those areas responding to the pandemic? What are the economic consequences beyond just the health consequences they face?

Behar walks us through his experiences over the last few months visiting different parts of the country that were ravaged by the virus. He sheds light on the stigma associated with COVID, the challenges of documenting death, and the state of India’s health infrastructure. He further discusses the levels of economic deprivation, condition of hunger, the potential for schools reopening and more. Finally, Behar share’s his perspective on what we need to do now, in advance of a potential third wave.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

India Speak Episode 6: Unpacking India’s COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST HEALTH

India embarked on its COVID-19 vaccination roll-out in early January prior to the second wave. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Partha Mukhopadhyay (Senior Fellow, CPR) to discuss India’s vaccine policy and guide us through the many bottlenecks, confusions, and successes we have encountered in the last few months. Why didn’t India start vaccinating earlier? How did the policy evolve once the second wave hit?

Mukhopadhyay who has been closely tracking the vaccine policy walks us through the different phases of the vaccine strategy across the country. He sheds light on the many inequities of the policy, the state of private supply, the role of the Supreme Court, the Centre-State dynamic and more. He further discusses how the digital inequity was built in with the CoWIN app from an economic, linguistic, and spatial standpoint. Finally, Mukhopadhyay share’s his perspective of where we are today vis-a-vis our goals on achieving universal vaccination.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

How India Sees the World: Kautilya to the 21st Century

NEW BOOK BY AMBASSADOR SHYAM SARAN
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS SOUTH ASIA

Former Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran has had a ringside view of the most critical events and shifts in Indian foreign policy in the new millennium, including the epochal India-US nuclear deal. In his new book, How India Sees the World: Kautilya to the 21st Century, Saran discerns the threads that tie together his experiences as a diplomat. Find below a curated list of discussions, reviews, and interviews on the book:

  • The Wire’s Maya Mirchandani interviews Shyam Saran on his new book (above)
  • Shyam Saran is joined by prominent commentator and expert on foreign policy, Senior Fellow at CPR Srinath Raghavan, for a discussion (video) at CPR on the various topics explored in the book. The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.
  • Other audio visual interviews of his book include an NDTV chat with Prannoy Roy; a CNN News 18 discussion with Anubha Bhonsale; and an interview with Sheela Bhatt on News X.
  • There is a written interview of Saran with IANS; and a coverage of his book launch in The Hindu.
  • His book has also been reviewed by C Raja Mohan of Carnegie India, and by Siddharh Singh in the Open Magazine.

How India Voted: Making Sense of the 2019 General Election

WATCH THE FULL DISCUSSION AND READ THE CURATED ANALYSIS BY CPR FACULTY
POLITICS ELECTION STUDIES

The results of the Lok Sabha Elections of 2019 mark an important turning point in Indian politics. Scholars at the Centre for Policy Resarch (CPR) have been closely following the electoral journey. In this analysis of the 2019 verdict, CPR faculty shed light on factors that led to the resounding victory for the Narendra Modi-led, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and examine what the future trajectory of India’s democracy looks like.

Starting June 4, CPR will also be launching a policy document on its website, titled, ‘Policy Challenges 2019-2024: The Big Policy Questions for the New Government and Possible Pathways’. This document covers various key policy issues including foreign policy & national security, climate, energy & environment, legal regimes for natural resource management, federalism, citizenship, and economy & welfare. Watch this space for more updates on the same.

CPR organised a discussion to analyse the results of the verdict for the 2019 General Election. Rahul Verma and Neelanjan Sircar made a presentation based on Election Commission data. The presentation was followed by a panel discussion featuring Yogendra Yadav, Shekhar Gupta, Tariq Thachil, Vandita Mishra, G Sampath, and was moderated by Yamini Aiyar, to analyse the factors that led to the election verdict. The question and answer session that followed the discussion can be accessed here. The edited excerpts of the discussion, published in the August 2019 issue of Seminar can be read here.

FACTORS THAT LED TO THE BJP’S VICTORY

  • Rahul Verma and Pranav Gupta write in ThePrint analysing reasons that led to BJP’s astounding victory in the elections. Verma and Gupta shed light on the shaky unity of the opposition, Narendra Modi’s unmatched popularity and failure of the opposition to project an alternate leader and the BJP’s extremely strong organisational machinery as factors that contributed to the resounding majority. They also write that such a victory would not have been possible without the support of the several beneficiaries of welfare programmes by the Modi government and hence this victory cannot be solely attributed to a focus on national security post Pulwama attacks and polarisation.
  • In another article in the same vein, Rahul Verma writes in the Economic Times that while the Balakot incident changed the narrative in favour of the BJP, passion alone does not drive the vote choice of Indian voters. He points to the failure of the opposition to mobilise voters against the government, Narendra Modi’s unmatched popularity and the role of several government schemes such as Ayushman Bharat, Ujjwala, direct cash transfers for farmers etc., pointing out that ‘the 2019 verdict is a sum total of competitive credibility on all these factors.’
  • Neelanjan Sircar writes in Hindustan Times about how the 2014 election result was not a black swan event but rather, the first step towards political consolidation. Sircar points to how voters are drawn to Narendra Modi, the quality of the BJP’s communication with voters and the strength of the BJP’s party machinery and the financing of that machinery to explain the reasons behind the party’s spectacular performance especially vis-à-vis the Congress.
  • Yamini Aiyar writes in Hindustan Times about how the Congress failed to provide an alternative ideological counter point to the BJP. Aiyar points out that while the Congress tried to build a campaign on critical issues of the economy, it ‘cannot fight an ideological battle through policy’. She stresses that the Congress can no longer shy away from a real debate on secularism and must articulate an ideological counterpoint to challenge the BJP’s hegemony.
  • In an interview with Money Control, Rahul Verma highlights how ‘the Congress got everything wrong’ in this election. Verma highlights that the Congress lacks an ideological vision for India, which is a prerequisite for an electoral strategy and if the party has to revive, it needs leadership that is convinced about such a vision.
  • In an interview with TheWire, Neelanjan Sircar points to how the BJP has consolidated its existing geographic core and expanded into new areas in the East. Sircar highlights that Modi has successfully treated all of the Hindi heartland as a single state, pointing out that the BJP has functioned like a state government that has been scaled up to the national level. He also sheds light on the symbolic message underlying the BJP fielding Pragya Thakur from an electorally ‘safe’ seat in Bhopal, highlighting that if the party believed she was a big voter catcher, then she would have been fielded from a competitive seat.
  • In an interview with CNN, Yamini Aiyar analyses the resounding victory of the BJP despite its disappointments on several critical issues like growth, jobs, inclusive development. These were the issues on which BJP had been voted into power in 2014. Aiyar sheds light on the divisive and polarised election campaign – ‘a campaign for achieving ideological dominance’ and highlights the economic challenges that the new government now faces.

THE FUTURE OF INDIAN DEMOCRACY

  • Rahul Verma writes in Firstpost about what Modi’s historic mandate means for the trajectory of Indian democracy given the BJP-led dominant party system, the marginalisation of the Congress, and decimation of the Left. Verma points to the possibility of India becoming a democracy with majoritarian sensibilities and cautions that ‘only magnanimity towards ideological adversaries and tolerance of dissent can complete the new idea of sabka vishwas.’
  • Shyam Saran writes in The Tribune about how India’s political democracy and liberal values associated with it are its most valuable assets and there must be a complete rejection of the idea that a more authentic India is emerging in which these are alien concepts. Saran stresses that while the current political dispensation may set its own norms of nationalism that go beyond citizenship, the vision for India that is enshrined in the Constitution must remain our guidepost for the future.

THE FOREIGN POLICY QUESTION

  • Brahma Chellaney writes in Hindustan Times about how the election result represents a fresh mandate for change – that ‘Indians not only want their country to stop punching below its weight but also to emerge truly as a great power’. In the midst of foreign policy challenges including China’s muscular revisionism, the unpredictable Trump administration, the need for a credible counterterrorism strategy, Chellaney highlights that Narendra Modi must take hard decisions to advance national security through fundamental reforms to dispel India’s image as a soft State.
  • Brahma Chellaney writes in Japan Times about how India-Japan ties under Narendra Modi and Shinzo Abe could potentially reshape the strategic landscape in Asia. Chellaney highlights that ‘India under Modi appears to be moving from its long-held nonalignment to a globalised practicality — multi-alignment’. He writes that the election results provide a fresh mandate for Modi ‘to reinvent India as a more secure, confident and competitive country, and forge closer ties with natural allies such as Japan.’
  • Shyam Saran writes in India Today about the several foreign policy challenges that confront the new government. Saran sheds light on rising tensions between India and Pakistan, China’s fast growing economic and military capabilities and the consequent threat to India’s interests, and highlights that the government ‘must continue to strengthen relations with the US, Japan, Australia and Southeast Asia as part of countervailing and constraining this Chinese power.’