FULL VIDEO OF ROUND TABLE ORGANISED BY CPR, THE CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, SCIENCES PO PARIS AND THE AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT
ENERGY RESEARCH
Watch the full video (above) of the first session on ‘Electric Hybrids and Bottom up Approach’ featuring Eric Verdeil, Rémi de Bercegol and Marie-Hélène Zérah, as part of the round table on ‘Emerging Forms of Hybrid Energy Systems in Cities of the Global South’.
Cities in the developing and emerging countries experience many problems of electricity supply, including lack of access for all as well as irregular and load quality issues, which conventional responses such as solely extending the grid cannot fix. Therefore, collective and individual alternatives such as decentralised and hybrid systems evolve. The co-evolutions of local electricity supply systems and urban change create new modalities of supply made up of actors, technical objects, institutions, economic interests, social practices and representations. These forms of supply go beyond the traditional publicly provided services or innovative socio-technical solutions.
Various configurations of hybridisation can emerge ranging from more or less isolated (batteries, inverters, micro-networks) or interconnected solutions (smart grid systems for instance) that have operational and regulatory impacts. It then becomes important to focus future research on the under-studied mutations of these arrangements in urban and urbanising spaces and to evaluate their impact on the future of broader national electricity systems.
The second session on ‘Stakeholder Dialogue on Energy Transition and Indian Cities’ featuring Ankit Bhardwaj, Gaurang Sethi, Santosh Kumar Thakur and Augustin Delisle can be accessed here.
Watch the full video (above) of a talk by Olivier Telle, a Senior Visiting Fellow at CPR, on Emerging Infectious Diseases in a City: Dengue and Chikungunya in Delhi, delivered at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi.
The recently released periodic labour force survey (PLFS) for 2019-20 brings to the fore a worrying truth about the Indian economy – an increasing trend in the number of people employed in agriculture. Worryingly the share of workers employed in manufacturing, construction and even some services contracted.
The latest PLFS data suggests that rather induce a transition out of agriculture in to manufacturing, the typical pathway to structural transformation and a process that was all too slow in India to begin with, the Indian economy is now restructuring such that agriculture is emerging as the primary driver of job growth. To put this in perspective, consider the following: Between 2018-2020, India’s total employed labour force went up from 380.57 million in 2018-19 to 426.75 million in 2019-20. Of this, an additional 46.18 million jobs, as many as 32.72 million or 70.9% were created in agriculture. The number of manufacturing and construction workers increased by a mere 1.65 million and 3.58 million, respectively, in 2019-20. What does this mean for the future of agriculture and the economy more broadly?
Unpacking trends
Consider the following facts.
First, labour force participation rate or LFPR. This is defined as the ratio of the country’s labour force, whether employed or unemployed, to its total population. As Chart 1 reveals there has been a significant increase in the LFPR, from 36.9% in 2017-18 and 37.5% in 2018-19 to 40.1% in the 2019-20 PLFS. However, this jump is perceptibly higher for rural than urban India.
Note: Rates are based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period.
Second worker population ratio or WPR. This is the percentage of the country’s population that is actually employed. The WPR, too, has gone up significantly in 2019-20; again this is on account of rising employment in rural India.
Note: Rates are based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period.
With the percentage of employed persons in the population rising, it is natural to also expect a corresponding drop in the ratio of those unemployed. The unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of persons in the country’s labour force that are unemployed (the total labour force, we saw, includes those who are both employed and unemployed). The chart below shows a sharp one percentage point dip in the unemployment rate in 2019-20. Once again, it is rural that has registered a bigger fall than urban.
Note: Rates are based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period.
With rural India emerging as the primary location for job creation, it is inevitable that agriculture is the primary driver. This is visible in the table below which highlights the distribution of workers or employed persons by broad industry/ sector.
Percentage distribution of employed workers
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
Agriculture
44.1
42.5
45.6
Manufacturing
12.1
12.1
11.2
Construction
11.7
12.1
11.6
Mining & quarrying
0.4
0.4
0.3
Electricity, water, etc
0.6
0.6
0.6
Trade, hotels & restaurants
12.0
12.6
13.2
Transport*
5.9
5.9
5.6
Other services
13.2
13.8
11.9
TOTAL
100.0
100.0
100.0
Note: Employment is based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period; *Includes storage & communications.
It can be seen that the share of workers employed in the agricultural sector has risen to 45.6% in 2019-20, from 42.5% and 44.1% for the preceding two PLFS years. This has been accompanied by the declining percentages of those engaged in manufacturing, construction and most services, barring trade, hotels & restaurants. Importantly, while the country’s rural employed workforce expanded by 35.82 million in 2019-20, over 89% of it was because of agriculture.
Is this trend of rising employment in agriculture reflective of a genuine rural resurgence and is this trend good for the Indian economy?
Through 2019-20, as the Indian economy decelerated, agriculture provided resilient. Agricultural growth stood at 4.3% in 2019-20, which not only surpassed that of overall gross value added (4.1%), but even manufacturing (minus 2.4%) and construction (1%).
One shouldn’t be surprised to see these results being replicated in the next PLFS for 2020-21 as well. Agriculture, we know, was the only sector that grew (by 3.6%) amidst an overall economic contraction (of 6.2%) in 2020-21. There were three main reasons for that – a good monsoon (both 2019 and 2020 were surplus rainfall years), farm-related activities being exempted from lockdown restrictions and stepped-up government procurement of produce. For a more detailed background on this, see our previous note (https://cprindia.org/news/9808).
The questions that really need to be asked is: Can agriculture continue to be the economy’s primary growth driver and job generator and how desirable is this for the rural economy?
The previous Employment and Unemployment Surveys of the National Sample Survey Office (the NSO’s earlier avatar) had shown India’s industry and services sectors to have added about 52 million jobs between 2004-05 and 2011-12. Of that, 25 million was in construction alone, with manufacturing (6 million) and other services (21 million) adding the rest. The 52 million-odd additional employment opportunities helped in pulling away some 37 million Indians from farms. And that, in turn, drove up rural wages, both in nominal and real terms (see chart below).
Note: Nominal wages are simple arithmetic all-India average for rural male labourers across 25 agricultural and non-agricultural occupations; for real wages, the Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers has been used.
Source: Labour Bureau.
We will, in a subsequent note, be pointing out how the growth in non-farm incomes (including in rural areas) from roughly the mid-2000s till around 2013-14 actually gave a huge boost to Indian agriculture. Not only did it generate more demand for farm produce, but also stimulated diet and cropping diversification. Agriculture’s own cause was enabled by the growth of employment and income opportunities outside of agriculture.
The reversal in India’s structural transformation back toward agriculture is undoubtedly an indicator of deep distress in the Indian economy and a fall back to subsistence employment. The policy implications in the short term are significant. Enhanced safety nets through PM-KISAN and MGNREGA, which allows work on farm land for small and marginal farmers, will be critical investments needed to ensure that incomes are protected and basic needs are met. However, without firing other cylinders of the economy, in the long term, the costs of this reversal in India’s structural transformation will be heavy. Any discussion on a post COVID 19 economic revival has to recognize the limits of a growth model where agriculture is re-emerging as the primary employer.
This note, part of the Understanding the Rural Economy series by CPR, has been authored by Harish Damodaran and Yamini Aiyar, with research support from Ragini Rao Munjuluri and Samridhi Agarwal.
Find all previous notes as part of the series here:
Watch the full video of the workshop (above), where Thomas Crowley explores the environmental politics of the Delhi Ridge, a hilly area that cuts through the National Capital Territory.
In this talk, Crowley discusses how the land, was first imagined. He talks about the evolution of the Ridge from the commonly-owned land used for grazing and firewood collection to a state-owned forest area. Crowley’s presentation analyses the shifts in land use over the past many decades, and explores their implications for ecological and social justice in Delhi today.
The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here, and more information about the talk can be found on the event page.
FULL VIDEO OF THE TALK ORGANISED BY THE STATE CAPACITY INITATIVE
ELECTION STUDIES POLITICS
Watch the full video (above) of the talk on ‘Establishing Regulatory Capacity for the Real Estate Sector: The MahaRERA Experience’ featuring Gautam Chatterjee (Chairperson, Maharashtra Real Estate Regulatory Authority) and Deepak Sanan (Senior Visiting Fellow,CPR), organised by the State Capacity Initiative at CPR.
The Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 was enacted by Parliament with the objective of bringing about transparency and financial discipline in the real estate business, and to protect the interests of home buyers. The law mandates states to set up real estate regulatory authorities; developers/builders are required to register projects with this regulatory authority before commencing bookings and sales. Builders are also required to deposit 70% of amounts collected from buyers into an escrow account, to ensure that these funds are used only for the specific project. The objectives of the Act include speedy dispute resolution, curbing the flow of black money, and ensuring timely completion of projects. Progress on the implementation of this law by states is encouraging. So far 29 states have set up regulatory authorities, and 24 have established appellate tribunals. Regulatory authorities of 24 states have set up their websites – which is critical for the implementation of the Act as it mandates online registration. A total of 46,695 real estate projects and 36,823 real estate agents have been registered under the Act across the country.
Maharashtra was the first state to set up its Real Estate Regulatory Authority (MahaRERA). The state has one of the largest real estate markets in India. It reports more than half of all projects registered in the country and most real estate agents.
Gautam Chatterjee is the first and current Chairperson of the Maharashtra Real Estate Regulatory Authority. The talk focused on his experience of establishing regulatory capacity and creating the conditions for transparency and market discipline in a difficult market.
The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.
It is with profound grief and sadness that we announce the passing away of Dr Ajit Mozoomdar, Honorary Research Professor, Centre for Policy Research. This is an immeasurable loss to CPR and the wider community. We can take some consolation from his extraordinary achievement in so many fields and we know he will be lighting up heaven as he lit up this earth.
FULL AUDIO RECORDING
CLIMATE RESEARCH ENERGY RESEARCH
Listen to Dr Kaushik Deb (above) present the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, an annual review of data on world energy markets used widely by media, academia, world governments, and energy companies to inform discussion, debate and decision-making.
One of the most widely respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy economics, it includes data for energy production, consumption and trade for nearly all countries.
Dr Mukul Asher reviewed the theoritical concept of fiscal space, and presented an integrated framework for generating fiscal space in the Indian context. The framework focuses on growth; ways to increase conventional and non-conventional sources of revenue; and better expenditure management.
CPR is delighted to share that Dr Navroz K Dubash, Senior Fellow at the Centre, was conferred the 12th T N Khoshoo Memorial Award in recognition of the impact of his work on Indian climate change policy and the international discourse on global climate governance.
This award, given by the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), honours the memory of the world-renowned environmental scientist, Dr Triloki Nath Khoshoo.
To read more about Dr Dubash’s contribution and the significance of the award, please visit the ATREE webpage
AN INTERVIEW WITH KARAN THAPAR ON INDIA TODAY
POLITICS
Watch Dr Pratap Bhanu Mehta’s interview (above) on ‘To The Point’ with Karan Thapar on India Today on the current political situation in India; the controversies faced by the present government; and how the rhetoric of ultra-nationalism will play out in the long run.
STATEMENT
January 17th, 2024
On 10th January 2024, CPR received a notice from the Ministry of Home Affairs cancelling its FCRA status. The basis of this decision is incomprehensible and disproportionate, and some of the reasons given challenge the very basis of the functioning of a research institution. This includes the publication on our website of policy reports emanating from our research being equated with current affairs programming.
During the tenure of our suspension, we sought and obtained interim redress from the honourable Delhi High Court and will continue to seek recourse in all avenues possible.
This cancellation comes after a decision to suspend the FCRA status in February 2023. These actions followed an Income Tax “survey” that took place in September 2022. The actions have had a debilitating impact on the institution’s ability to function by choking all sources of funding. This has undermined the institution’s ability to pursue its well established objective of producing high quality, globally recognised research on policy matters, which it has been recognised for over its 50 years’ existence. During this time the institution has been home to some of the country’s most distinguished academics, diplomats and policymakers.
CPR firmly reiterates that it is in complete compliance with the law, and has been cooperating fully and exhaustively at every step of the process. We remain steadfast in our belief that this matter will be resolved in line with constitutional values and guarantees.
