As the 2017 Legislative Assembly elections in India draw closer, Uttar Pradesh (UP) will to go to polls between February-March this year. In the run-up to the polling, find below a curated analysis by CPR faculty to-date.
Writing in Hindustan Times, Srinath Raghavan explains how the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) ongoing power struggle differs from the substantive political and ideological tussles of past socialist parties.
Neelanjan Sircar analyses the chances of a BJP win in Hindu Business Line given the split within the SP, and the corruption charges against Mayawati in the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
In The Lucknow Gambit, Sanjaya Baru discusses the various potential outcomes of the UP elections, contingent on who benefits from the politics of demonetisation, and argues how the results will impact 2019.
Writing in LiveMint, Srinath Raghavan compares the leadership and governance records of the SP in UP and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu.
In an op-ed in The Hindu, Neelanjan Sircar and Bhanu Joshi analyse religious polarisation and voting behaviour in the Upper Doab region of UP.
In another piece in Hindi in Firstpost, Bhanu Joshi and Ashish Ranjan write on how the political volitility and changing equations of Western UP could swing the outcome of the state elections in any direction.
BY CPR-NAMATI ENVIRONMENT JUSTICE PROGRAM
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE
Issues related to environment can manifest in various forms. From rivers being polluted by industrial activities to beaches being used as dumping sites by the municipality, the effects of environmental degradation are far-reaching. Often these are a result of non-adherence to provisions of legal directions for environmental compliance by various actors.
Normatively, all industrial activities, under the ambit of law, have to comply with pre and post environmental clearances. Additionally, they may also have to comply with terms and conditions in existing lease documents, land transfer agreements, court judgments – all of which require a clear institutional framework, robust administrative agencies, and proper remedial actions in case of violations.
The second and updated version of the CPR-Namati ‘Handbook on Legal and Administrative Remedies for Environment Justice Practitioners’ presents a range of possible scenarios of non-compliances that are likely to occur across geographies and industrial sectors, and remedial actions that can be taken to address these.
The Handbook has been developed with the objective of providing those affected by environmental non-compliances with a ready guide to address such violations through appropriate legal means. For this purpose, it has been translated in four languages, including Hindi, Oriya, Gujarati and Kannada.
The Handbook draws on the action research carried out by the CPR-Namati Environment Justice Program in Gujarat (Kutch, Valsad, Gir Somnath, Jam-Kambhaliya, Dwarka districts), Karnataka (Uttara Kannada district), Chhattisgarh (Sarguja, Janjgir-Champa and Korba districts) and Odisha (Keonjhar district).
It provides the reader with a ready reference list of remedial laws in cases of different types of non-compliances. It also provides case studies of how the Program’s para legal practitioners on the ground assisted affected communities in preparing robust legal evidence to seek justice.
In addition to the laws, the Handbook provides an overview of institutions that can be approached for information and remedial measures. It details the processes required for obtaining permissions from these institutions and the monitoring and compliance systems in place for each institution.
The full handbook can be downloaded here. Translations in Oriya-English, Gujarati-English, Kannada-English, Romi-English and Devnagri-English can also be accessed.
Post the announcement of Union Budget 2017, Accountability Initiative (AI) at CPR, which tracks government budgetary allocation and related expenditure for key social sector schemes annually, both through analysing government data and corroborating it with ground surveys run by their field staff, shares their full series of budget briefs (2017-18) on seven social sector schemes:
In a series of articles below, Yamini Aiyar, Avani Kapur and Abhishri Aggarwal break down the bottlenecks in fund-flows, which negatively impact implementation on the ground despite monies having been allocated, as well as provide sectoral and scheme-specific budgetary (allocation, expenditure, government reported outputs & outcomes) analysis over 2017-18.
Social sector allocations
Yamini Aiyar writes in Livemint and in a Hindi article in Amar Ujala that the budget has maintained the status quo, as far as social sector schemes are concerned, and has been ‘remarkably silent’ on restructuring the ‘financing architecture for social policy post the 14th Finance Commission’.
Avani Kapur reiterates this in another article in Deccan Herald, writing that despite riding high on expectations, Budget 2017 did not offer any major changes in majority of social sector schemes.
Complexity of fund-flows
In Huffington Post, Yamini Aiyar explains why the money allocated by the union government fails to reach the ground, primarily due to the complex mechanism of fiscal transfer or fund-flow, which makes tracking and accountability very difficult. (Hindi translation)
The complexity of this mechanism of money-flow has been captured in the animated video (above).
In a follow-up and related article, Abhishri Aggarwal analyses the lack of effective implementation of the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) scheme, as well as the need for a transparent, well-maintained monitoring system.
In addition, AI produced the following data visualisations:
AI also put together a series of 6 short learning videos, which break down how to analyse the budget, and can be accessed here. The animated video embedded above is also available in Hindi.
Post the announcement of Union Budget 2018, Accountability Initiative (AI) at CPR, which tracks government budgetary allocation and related expenditure for key social sector schemes annually shares their full series of budget briefs (2018-19) on nine social sector schemes:
In a series of visualisations and articles below, AI experts nuance the challenges of flagship Government of India schemes in the education, sanitation and health sectors.
In Where has the social sector money gone? Avani Kapur reviews Budget 2018 and critical questions on social sector allocations. Even as schemes have received minimal allocations, the Budget signals an important shift in the political narrative. Here’s why.
Learning in India’s public schools
Can India realise its demographic potential in the absence of a far-sighted policy for education? In India’s secondary education challenge, Avani Kapur makes a case for why there is a need to urgently reform the secondary education system. Accountability Initiative also analyses the allocations and expenditures of two flagship education schemes – the Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan and the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan – and the quality of education provided.
Swachh Bharat Mission: A reality check
The Swachh Bharat Mission is racing towards its target of achieving an Open Defecation Free (ODF) India by 2019, constructing more than 2,000 toilets every hour, but will the gains from such increased coverage be sustainable? Read this Accountability Initiative analysis for more.
In Stumbling towards Sustainable Sanitation, Avani Kapur and Devashish Deshpande write on the challenge of ensuring that open defecation-free villages and cities are truly ODF, and more crucially that they remain so.
Healing the Public Health System
There is pressing need to focus on health systems strengthening, and on reforming two critical arms of the National Health Mission – human resources, planning and budgeting – writes Avani Kapur in ‘Patient’ approach to better health. Yet even as the new National Health Policy of 2017 urges a widening of the service net, can outcomes improve without reform of underlying institutional shortcomings? Explore a series of visualisations on the issue here.
In addition, AI produced the following data visualisations:
In his Budget 2018 speech, the Finance Minister emphasised how Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) have reduced corruption, and delivered services at people’s doorsteps. Take a look at the scale of DBT.
The Centre for Policy Research hosted a conference on ‘Urban Transformations in India’ with a special focus on informal settlements in Delhi in August, 2015. Watch full video sessions below of the two-day long conference.
The conference brought together researchers, policy makers, government officials as well as community representatives and activists from across the board to discuss and debate ideas.
Watch the full video of the workshop (above), where Chinmay Tumbe speaks about his paper examining the nature of urbanisation and urban growth in India since the late 19th century, against the backdrop of the unfolding demographic transition.
Through this talk, Tumbe seeks to address various factors that affect India’s relatively slow pace of urbanisation, such as the inter-city variation in population growth rates, and the paradox of faster urban growth in the North combined with slower urbanisation in the South.
The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here. More information about the talk can be found on the event page.
The year 2021 promises to be a blockbuster for global climate politics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release its report this year, updated national pledges on emission limits are expected, and all this is on the table at a climate Conference of Parties in the United Kingdom (UK) in November. Not least, a re-invigorated Joe Biden-led United States (US) has placed the climate crisis near the top of its foreign policy agenda.
There is plenty at stake for India, including diplomatic, economic and climate outcomes. There is global pressure on India to telegraph its intentions as early as the US-hosted Climate Leaders Summit in April, or a UK-hosted G-7 Summit in June.
What should India say, and do? We are pleased to share a new two-part series in the Hindustan Times by Navroz K. Dubash which outlines a new approach to Indian climate policy, action, and leadership. We also include links to relevant blog posts, and selected quotes in the press.
India needs to define its climate policies in ways that meet diplomatic, developmental and climate interests simultaneously. A net-zero pledge by 2050, particularly if bound in law, would likely win us diplomatic credit, but will risk our development future, and ironically, may not, in practice, accelerate our transition to a low-carbon future.
In India, a focus on development pathways requires three steps: sectoral transition plans for key areas of the economy; strong institutions for climate governance; and economy-wide targets that emphasise near-term actions.
In Environmentality, a blog by the Centre for Policy Research:
Instead of uncritically joining the net-zero bandwagon, India could usefully advocate broadening of what counts as desirable climate action to include not just ambition, but also implementation.
By Navroz K. Dubash
In a recent contribution to MIT Technology Review, Dubash highlights the role of institutions in our collective response to climate change.
Quick Takes in the Press
“We don’t know exactly how we will do it and what are the potential trade-offs with development objectives. […] For countries such as India, the most important thing is to achieve the greatest development for the fewest additional emissions,” says Dubash. “Instead of setting a distant net-zero goal, India should figure out ways to avoid locking in high-carbon infrastructure.” In Bloomberg on March 17.
“A climate change commission is useful, but not one articulated solely or even mostly around carbon budgets,” says Dubash. “Meeting carbon budgets does not animate Indian politics and policy, transformational sectoral change does.” In Climate Home News on March 18.
“For the industrialised countries, the language of net zero seems to be very big. But I would welcome them telling us what that translates to in the next 10 years, and how are you going to get there? While we talk about an ‘ambition gap’ regarding emissions reductions,” says Dubash, “we also need to address the ‘implementation gap.'” In Mint Lounge on March 19.
“I’m completely in favor of having a focal point for global policy, but I sometimes worry that the tail shouldn’t wag the dog here,” says Dubash. “We want to not just have countries saying that they’re going to do something very progressive, we want to have hard evidence that they will actually do it.” In Lights On: The Weekend Read on February 21.
Watch the full video (above) of the discussion between Ambassador Shyam Saran, Srinath Raghavan and Zorawar Daulet Singh, where they analyse the complicated relationship between India and China.
As the dust settles from the last year’s Doklam Standoff between India and China, relationship between the two neighbours has entered a state of flux. Even as domestic political priorities have come to the fore in both countries, India and China are discovering new spots of friction and struggling to evolve a sustainable framework of cooperation.
Against the backdrop of the latest diplomatic efforts by both sides to put the relationship on an even keel, Centre for Policy Research’s (CPR) in-house experts on Chinese and Indian foreign policy consider the geopolitics, strategy and economics underpinning this new conjuncture in India-China relations and its implications for the two countries, for Asia and beyond.
Ambassador Shyam Saran is a senior fellow at CPR, a former foreign secretary and has served as the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for Nuclear Affairs and Climate Change, as well as chairman of the National Security Advisory Board.
Srinath Raghavan is a senior fellow at CPR. He is also a senior research fellow at the India Institute at King’s College, London.
Zorawar Daulet Singh is an author and foreign affairs analyst. He is a Fellow at the CPR. He is also an Adjunct Fellow with the Institute of Chinese Studies and a Visiting Fellow at the Forum for Strategic Initiative.
The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.
The Narendra Modi government recently delivered the 2019 interim budget. As the last budget before the Lok Sabha elections, it included various pre-poll promises and big announcements such as a pension programme for workers, an income support scheme for farmers and tax rebate for middle class taxpayers. While the budget was criticised for being populist, it is also necessary to examine how it impacts key areas of concern such as health, unemployment, and education, especially in a post-demonetisation and GST economy. In this curated media commentary below, CPR faculty analyse the 2019 Interim Budget.
Yamini Aiyar comments in the ‘Hindustan Times’ on the politics of the interim budget 2019 and the long term implications of the shift towards income transfers as a model for welfare.
Avani Kapur of the Accountability Initiative at CPR writes in ‘IndiaSpend’ that a look at the government’s financial commitments to the social sector suggests that ‘it still has no clear idea on how to realise its vision.’ Kapur compares allocations for flagship welfare schemes between 2018-19 and the latest interim budget and finds that rural development, health and maternal welfare schemes have been underfunded. She further reiterates this in ‘Deccan Herald’ highlighting that ‘the Budget speech also made no mention of education.’ Kapur writes in ‘ThePrint’ that despite a focus on rural development, allocations in this area saw a marginal increase. She also appeared on an interview with ‘The Wire’ discussing the health budget and how Ayushman Bharat got a silent boost.
Kiran Bhatty writes in ‘The Wire’ about how how critical areas of education and unemployment were left out of the interim budget. She highlights how the vision of the government ‘systematically excludes the poorest and most marginalised and avoids confronting one of the biggest crisis in the economy: that of employment and the employability (and education) of the youth.’
TWO NEW BOOK CHAPTERS BY LAVANYA RAJAMANI.
PARIS AGREEMENT CLIMATE RESEARCH
Recently published by the Oxford University Press, The Paris Agreement on Climate Change features two book chapters written by Lavanya Rajamani, including i) Central Concepts in the Paris Agreement and How They Evolved and, ii) Guiding Principles and General Obligation (Article 2.2 and Article 3).
An edited volume of essays, the book provides an analysis of the legal requirements of the Paris Agreement, and clarifies the content of the provisions, placing them in context and elaborating on key issues surrounding the Agreement.
In the first of the two chapters, Rajamani charts the evolution of the central concepts in the Paris Agreement. She and her co-author argue that the Paris Agreement relies on a few key concepts to ensure its acceptability, namely those of ambition of a global effort to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, differentiation between developed and developing countries, and, the provision of support towards climate change efforts.
These concepts underpinned the four years of negotiations that led up to the Paris Agreement. An examination of these concepts, and how they play out in the text of Agreement, reveals the delicate balance the Agreement manages between a sincere commitment to climate change efforts while remaining sensitive to political, scientific and technical advances, and national circumstances and capabilities.
In the second chapter, Rajamani focuses more specifically on guiding principles of the Agreement articulated in Article 2.2 and Article 3 of the Paris Agreement. These include equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in light of different national circumstances.
The chapter traces the difficult history of these principles at previous negotiations, and provides insight into the carefully chosen language that has critical significance. It also analyses how these principles have been operationalised across mitigation, adaptation, transparency, and, support.
For more details on the book, please visit the publisher page.
Additionally, Lavanya Rajamani has written extensively on the Paris Agreement for Annuaire Français De Droit International, the Journal of International Environmental Law, and, International and Comparative Law Quarterly, to name a select few. Her co-authored book, International Climate Change Law, published in May this year, discusses the Paris Agreement in depth.
Watch out for her article with Jutta Brunnée on ‘The Legality of Downgrading Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement: Lessons from the US Disengagement’, which will be out in the next issue of the Journal of Environmental Law.
More information on her work can be accessed here.
STATEMENT
January 17th, 2024
On 10th January 2024, CPR received a notice from the Ministry of Home Affairs cancelling its FCRA status. The basis of this decision is incomprehensible and disproportionate, and some of the reasons given challenge the very basis of the functioning of a research institution. This includes the publication on our website of policy reports emanating from our research being equated with current affairs programming.
During the tenure of our suspension, we sought and obtained interim redress from the honourable Delhi High Court and will continue to seek recourse in all avenues possible.
This cancellation comes after a decision to suspend the FCRA status in February 2023. These actions followed an Income Tax “survey” that took place in September 2022. The actions have had a debilitating impact on the institution’s ability to function by choking all sources of funding. This has undermined the institution’s ability to pursue its well established objective of producing high quality, globally recognised research on policy matters, which it has been recognised for over its 50 years’ existence. During this time the institution has been home to some of the country’s most distinguished academics, diplomats and policymakers.
CPR firmly reiterates that it is in complete compliance with the law, and has been cooperating fully and exhaustively at every step of the process. We remain steadfast in our belief that this matter will be resolved in line with constitutional values and guarantees.
