Author: cprindia

As former cricketer and leader of ‘Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’ (PTI), Imran Khan is elected the next Prime Minister of the country, it becomes important for India to ascertain the trajectory it is going to follow with respect to its neighbour. While the election was marred by allegations of rigging, military interference and violence, it is clear that Pakistan’s strategic relationship and foreign policy towards India will be impacted, especially when important issues like terrorism and Kashmir are on the table. In this curated media commentary below, CPR faculty analyse this important development across the border.

G Parthasarathy writes in ‘The Tribune’ about the involvement of the army in the elections of Pakistan, highlighting how it has backed the PTI, and undermined democratic processes and freedom by gagging the media and targeting those who go against its wishes. He further reiterates this in ‘The Economic Times’, detailing how the newly elected Prime Minister, who is often referred to as ‘Taliban Khan’, faces the challenge of acting against terrorism, given Pakistan’s dwindling foreign exchange reserves and the dire need of an IMF (International Monetary Fund) bailout. In ‘PrimeTimes.IN’, Parthasarathy underscores the role of the army in Nawaz Sharif’s ouster and arrest and the general elections of 2018 and its involvement in Pakistan’s policy towards countries like China, India, Afghanistan, and the US, among others. In ‘The New India Express’, he warns that ‘He (Imran Khan) will remain in power as long as he remembers that the real keys to power are not with him in Islamabad, but in the Army’s GHQ (General Headquarters) in Rawalpindi.’

Brahma Chellaney writes in the ‘Hindustan Times’ about how India should deal with the ‘Mecca of terrorism’ Pakistan has become. While ‘India’s policy pendulum on Pakistan actually swings from one extreme to the other — from vowing a decisive fight to making schmaltzy overtures’, Chellaney establishes that ‘after this contrived election, Pakistan seriously risks slipping deeper into a jihadist dungeon’.

Shyam Saran appeared on an episode of Wide Angle on ‘The Wire’ where he analysed the result of the Pakistan election and the repercussions it has on India, exploring whether this serves as an opportunity to resume structured dialogue with the country, given that Khan has called for increase in trade between the two neighbours.

CLEARING THE AIR: NEW MONTHLY COLUMN IN THE HINDUSTAN TIMES BY NAVROZ K DUBASH
AIR POLLUTION POLITICS

In the first instalment of a monthly op-ed series in the Hindustan Times entitled Clearing the Air, Professor Navroz K Dubash argues that India must jettison the impoverished idea of an environment-development trade-off.

The government’s interim budget intriguingly included several broad environmental objectives in its Vision 2030. Included in its 10-point agenda were ease of living, a pollution-free India, and clean rivers. For the government to explicitly include environmental objectives is necessary and welcome. But in the absence of concrete measures — and there were almost none in this interim budget — simply laying out ambitious goals is far from sufficient.

It is important to understand just how dismal is the state of India’s environment. Three in five monitored rivers across the country are polluted. Much of our solid waste is unprocessed even in wealthy parts of the country — 90% in Maharashtra and 48% in Delhi. Three-quarters of India’s population lives in areas where air pollution (PM2.5, the most harmful pollutant) exceeds the Indian national standard, which itself is four times higher than the global standard. In fact, 72 of 640 districts in the northern belt have emissions more than 10 times worse than the global standard. Taken together, a recent Global Environmental Quality Performance Index ranked India 177th out of 180 countries.

This worrying situation is fundamentally one of health. Poor air, water and solid waste disposal affect the health of India’s citizens and particularly its children. For example, a WHO report suggests that 10% of the children who die before the age of five do so due to air pollution.

We have come to this sorry situation partly because of a mistaken notion that environmental quality is a luxury, and that pollution is a necessary, if unfortunate, side effect of development. Indira Gandhi’s oft-quoted line “poverty is the greatest polluter” has often been used to argue for a trade-off between poverty reduction and environmental protection, and that India should focus on the former. But as Jairam Ramesh noted in his book on Mrs Gandhi’s environmental thought, her message was nuanced: while the needs of the poor should indeed not be forgotten, they can and should be met without despoiling nature. Forty five years on, this is a nuance worth recovering.

Growing now and cleaning up later is a flawed approach for several reasons. First, and most important, the poor are the worst affected by environmental destruction. The livelihoods of farmers, fishers and forest dwellers are immediately affected by a degraded environment, and the poor are far less able to insulate themselves against dirty water and air than the rich. Pollution makes the impact of poverty worse.

Second, postponing cleaning up until we are rich is an impossible prospect: at a per capita GDP one-third of China’s, India already has more cities with chronic air pollution than China. Do we really want to be multiple times as polluted as China when we reach their GDP, let alone that of developed countries? Moreover, many of the effects of pollution are not easily reversible; ecosystems once destabilised cannot be returned to their original state.

Third, it is simplistic to think of environmental safeguards only as a drag on growth. A degraded environment itself has impacts on the economy: pollution adds to public health burdens; destroyed environments cannot provide ecosystem services such as filtering waste and buffering against storms; and degraded resources wreck the livelihoods of the poor. Moreover, as we move toward a knowledge economy, high-skilled talent will refuse to live in toxic urban environments. A despoiled environment will add to the cost of doing business.

Finally, going green can actually be a pathway to growth in a world where there is growing attention to the world’s oceans, climate and forests. The world is undergoing a renewable energy revolution, with a competitive advantage for countries best placed to seize the moment. Ideas of the circular economy — waste streams from one industrial process form inputs for another process — promise efficiency gains with both environmental and economic payoffs. Increasingly, there is more scope for growth through enhancing the environment than by devastating it.

To go beyond broad vision statements to effective action requires broader political mobilisation around demands for a healthier environment. There are pockets of mobilisation — resource dependent communities swept aside by industrial development and some urban elites beginning to prioritise environmental liveability over consumption — but these are isolated voices. Finally, sustainable growth requires smarter environmental governance. At the moment, every environmental problem is a nail waiting for the hammer of judicial or administrative enforcement. Instead we need to combine effective regulation, behavioural change and technological solutions to meet multiple social and ecological objectives. An important starting point is jettisoning the impoverished idea of an environment-development trade-off.

Navroz K Dubash is a Professor at the Centre for Policy Research. This is the first article in a monthly op-ed series in the Hindustan Times entitled ‘Clearing the Air.’ The original article, which was posted on February 6, 2019, can be found here.

Read more in the Clearing the Air series:

• Green industrial policy is a timely idea for India to explore
• Our clean air plan is a missed chance
• Can India grow now and clean up later? No, it can’t
• How to Avoid the Middle Income Trap

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST HEALTH

India embarked on its COVID-19 vaccination roll-out in early January prior to the second wave. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Partha Mukhopadhyay (Senior Fellow, CPR) to discuss India’s vaccine policy and guide us through the many bottlenecks, confusions, and successes we have encountered in the last few months. Why didn’t India start vaccinating earlier? How did the policy evolve once the second wave hit?

Mukhopadhyay who has been closely tracking the vaccine policy walks us through the different phases of the vaccine strategy across the country. He sheds light on the many inequities of the policy, the state of private supply, the role of the Supreme Court, the Centre-State dynamic and more. He further discusses how the digital inequity was built in with the CoWIN app from an economic, linguistic, and spatial standpoint. Finally, Mukhopadhyay share’s his perspective of where we are today vis-a-vis our goals on achieving universal vaccination.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

Unlike last year during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the second wave witnessed the virus making inroads into rural areas of India as well. To discuss this and more, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Abhijit Chowdhury (Chief Advisor, Liver Foundation, West Bengal) in this episode of India Speak.

Chowdhury discusses what the on-ground realities look like in rural India. He sheds light on how the health system in these areas can be prepared to respond to this unfolding crisis. Finally, he discusses what it will take to achieve universal vaccination for all adults in these areas, advocating for a community-based approach to both treatment and vaccination.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

• Impact of the Second Wave on the Economy featuring Pranjul Bhandari
• Impact of the Second Wave on Unemployment and Labour Force Participation featuring Mahesh Vyas
• Impact on Jobs, Incomes, Inequality and Poverty featuring Amit Basole

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

The State of Working India 2021 report by the Centre for Sustainable Employment (CSE) at the Azim Premji University finds that the pandemic has further increased informality and led to a severe decline in earnings for the majority of workers resulting in a sudden increase in poverty. In particular, the poor, women and younger workers have disproportionately borne the brunt of the pandemic.

To discuss key findings of the report and more, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Amit Basole (Associate Professor of Economics and Head, CSE, Azim Premji University) in this episode of India Speak. Basole sheds light on the trends in employment patterns and the dynamics of informality in India’s labour market prior to the pandemic, to make sense of the slow structural transformation in the economy. He discusses the implications of the differentiated gender dynamics, the move to informality and the loss of income for India’s economy. He further highlights what the policy response should be to the immediate crisis and the lessons that can be learned from it.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

• Impact of the Second Wave on the Economy featuring Pranjul Bhandari
• Impact of the Second Wave on Unemployment and Labour Force Participation featuring Mahesh Vyas

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

The second wave of the pandemic saw localised lockdowns across India that brought economic activities to a halt. What has been the impact of this on unemployment and labour force participation? In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Mahesh Vyas [Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE)]. Through its surveys, CMIE has been closely tracking the health of the Indian economy, particularly the labour market, consumer sentiment and investment patterns.

Vyas sheds light on the trends in unemployment and labour participation rates during the peak of the national lockdown, the phase of economic recovery and the second wave. He discusses the impact of increased informality and decreased female labour force participation and the lessons learned from the first wave of COVID-19. Further, he underscores the impact of the second wave on consumer sentiment and what the government must do to revive the economy. Finally, he discusses the need to monitor the economy regularly and ways to strengthen India’s statistical systems.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

• Impact of the Second Wave on the Economy featuring Pranjul Bhandari

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH

The Indian economy was going through an unprecedented slowdown that was exacerbated by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant national lockdown. Just as the economy was showing signs of recovery, the country has been hit by the virulent second wave. With multiple localised lockdowns, a halt on mobility and economic activity and an unprecedented health crisis, this time, the ravages of the pandemic are being felt across the nation, even rural areas.

What has been the impact of the second wave on India’s economy and how does it differ from the first wave? In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Pranjul Bhandari (Managing Director and Chief India Economist, HSBC). Bhandari sheds light on the state of India’s economy before the second wave hit, the implications of the second wave particularly for the informal sector and why it needs a special focus and what a policy response to the economic crisis from the Centre and states should look like.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST HEALTH

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic saw rural parts of India get affected as well, unlike the previous year during the first wave. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Anurag Behar (Chief Executive Officer, Azim Premji Foundation) to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in the hinterlands. How are people in those areas responding to the pandemic? What are the economic consequences beyond just the health consequences they face?

Behar walks us through his experiences over the last few months visiting different parts of the country that were ravaged by the virus. He sheds light on the stigma associated with COVID, the challenges of documenting death, and the state of India’s health infrastructure. He further discusses the levels of economic deprivation, condition of hunger, the potential for schools reopening and more. Finally, Behar share’s his perspective on what we need to do now, in advance of a potential third wave.

About the Series

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.

Listen to other episodes in this series:

• Impact of the Second Wave on the Economy featuring Pranjul Bhandari
• Impact of the Second Wave on Unemployment and Labour Force Participation featuring Mahesh Vyas
• Impact on Jobs, Incomes, Inequality and Poverty featuring Amit Basole
• Responding to the Spread of COVID-19 in Rural India featuring Abhijit Chowdhury

NEW WORKING PAPER BY S CHANDRASEKHAR, MUKTA NAIK, SHAMINDRA NATH ROY
URBAN GOVERNANCE MIGRATION

Beyond summing up salient migration trends from existing data sources; a new working paper by researchers from Centre for Policy Research and Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (IGIDR) builds on a critique of the estimations made by the Economic Survey 2017 to outline fresh ideas for developing leading indicators that will help inform policy. This is particularly needed because even as Indian policymakers are increasingly recognising the linkages between migration, labour markets and economic development, the lack of frequently updated datasets limits our understanding of migration.

We recognise the contribution of the Economic Survey in using innovative approaches to measure migration, viz. the age cohort metric that tracks age-cohorts across census periods and the measurement of mobility through the sale of unreserved railway tickets. However, we also see limitations – for instance, the high levels of work-related movement outlined in the Survey seems to be at odds with the challenges India is facing with job creation and also incongruent with indicative data from Census 2011 that shows a decline in the importance of work in the reasons for migration. These inconsistencies need additional exploration.

The relatively low estimation of migration by the first method (Census 2011) and the higher estimation by the second (Economic Survey 2017) speaks to discrepancies in how we define and understand different kinds of mobilities and migration in the country. For instance, we discuss how the high levels of seasonal migration and commuter movement revealed by analysing Census and NSSO (National Sample Survey Office) data demands urgent policy response especially on transportation and mobility. In fact, given relatively stable geographies of migration in India, receiving states can leverage data to evolve migrant-inclusive policies with a focus on cities, which are increasingly important destinations for migrants. These may require specific interventions in affordable housing, transport, basic services, political inclusion, skilling and livelihood. Moreover, portability of social benefits for inter-State migrants is an urgent area where inter-State mechanisms need to be strengthened.

Following the Economic Survey’s effort, we contend that the exercise of improving data on migration and commuting need not be restricted to revamping government surveys. Innovative ways of improving collecting information and tracking movement could include leveraging administrative data collected by the government through digital databases ranging from sources like birth and death registrations to scheme-related data. Ticket sales data from state road transport corporations, especially on routes where daily commuting is the norm, would be particularly useful for commuting-intensive destinations. Trails of ‘big data’ left by user transactions and digital activity, particularly mobile phone usage, are also areas that must be explored, subject to privacy considerations. Triangulating multiple datasets is important to improve data-driven policy reforms that can help India plan for those individuals who change locations permanently as well as those who move seasonally.

The thinking for this paper has emerged from the extensive work on migration done under the Strengthen and Harmonize Research and Action on Migration (SHRAMIC) initiative supported by the Tata Trusts, in which IGIDR, CPR and the National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA) have been involved as knowledge partners. Further, many insights emerge from the authors’ involvement, in the capacity of members and research support, with the Working Group on Migration established by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), Government of India and chaired by Partha Mukhopadhyay at CPR. Further impetus for the paper was provided by robust discussions on migration estimates fuelled by innovative approaches used in the Economic Survey 2017. The Economic and Political Weekly has recently accepted this paper for publication.

IN CONVERSATION WITH NEELANJAN SIRCAR, BHANU JOSHI AND ASHISH RANJAN
ELECTION STUDIES POLITICS

CPR researchers Neelanjan Sircar, Bhanu Joshi, and Ashish Ranjan did extensive field work in Assam and Bengal during the elections, and shared their insights on Upper Assam and Barak Valley; the Muslim vote in Assam; and on the Poriborton (change) brought about by Mamata Banerjee in Bengal.

Drawing on their field experience over the past couple of months, they share below their thoughts on the big wins for the BJP in Assam and the TMC in Bengal.

What are your thoughts on the TMC and Mamata Banerjee’s landslide victory in Bengal?

Neelanjan: The Left-Congress Alliance has been left in a very bad shape, and they will have to re-assess everything. To begin with they need to find a state level neta (leader) who resonates with the people, and identify a major gap that the TMC is not addressing. The problem was they had no real campaign issue this time. Interestingly, the Congress won many more seats than the Left, which has officially reduced the Left to the third party, despite it having a larger vote share.

Bhanu: In the absence of a political script for the Left-Congress Alliance, what we saw clearly was that rural Bengal was backing Mamata, and the Left had completely lost the rural connect. They will have to introspect and seriously think about how to rebuild this connect.

What this victory means for Mamata Banerjee is that she will have a strengthened position in the Rajya Sabha, and can negotiate more effectively with the Centre to mend the flagging finances of Bengal.

Ashish: Mamata Banerjee will also have to focus on the creation of new jobs, which is a huge demand, or things will be difficult in Bengal, going forward.

Neelanajan: Mamata’s ground-level control is crucial to her ability to deliver on promises, like roads. At the same, this same control has yielded a significant amount of fear and violence. This was evident during the election season. There is a real concern about this spinning out of control. It is an open question whether she can control it or not, but she must be wary of the possibility of the situation going awry, as it did for the Left.

Ashish: Due to her style of operating, which runs on her charismatic authority, Mamata Banerjee does not have an organisational structure, unlike the Left. If she cannot restrict goons in her party, either the cadre will rebel or leave the party. This would make things very difficult for her in 2021.

Thank you for those insights on what TMC’s victory means for Bengal. What are your thoughts on the BJP’s victory in Assam?

Bhanu: Assam is a very complex state, but the way it has voted decisively goes to show that the binaries we create to understand the political contexts no longer hold. The theory of vote-bank politics does not work, Muslims are no longer a vote-bank. Out of the 49 constituencies in districts with more than 50% Muslim population, 15 have voted for the BJP, and the rest are divided among the other parties. There is some complexity in the methodology but could we have thought five years ago that BJP would be ruling two states—Jammu and Kashmir and Assam—with the highest Muslim population? No.

Today, people are voting for development, and the BJP ran a much better campaign on the ground in Assam, focused on developmental issues. This shows that when political parties plan elections, they need to be very prepared because they are reaching out to a very sophisticated voter.

Ashish: Now that the BJP has come to power, it will be interesting to see how they manage the Bangladeshi Muslim migrant issue, which they have been ideologically opposed to.

Neelanjan: We have looked at three Eastern states so far, Bihar, Assam, and Bengal, and it is clear that the defining narrative has been of development—of a certain sort. Development that is extremely visible, tangible, and this has brought a new dimension back into politics. It indicates a certain kind of accountability that the voter now demands of the party in power, and this is a very positive trend, not just for the states, but for India as a whole.