LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH
The Indian economy was going through an unprecedented slowdown that was exacerbated by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant national lockdown. Just as the economy was showing signs of recovery, the country has been hit by the virulent second wave. With multiple localised lockdowns, a halt on mobility and economic activity and an unprecedented health crisis, this time, the ravages of the pandemic are being felt across the nation, even rural areas.
What has been the impact of the second wave on India’s economy and how does it differ from the first wave? In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Pranjul Bhandari (Managing Director and Chief India Economist, HSBC). Bhandari sheds light on the state of India’s economy before the second wave hit, the implications of the second wave particularly for the informal sector and why it needs a special focus and what a policy response to the economic crisis from the Centre and states should look like.
About the Series
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.
LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH
The second wave of the pandemic saw localised lockdowns across India that brought economic activities to a halt. What has been the impact of this on unemployment and labour force participation? In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Mahesh Vyas [Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE)]. Through its surveys, CMIE has been closely tracking the health of the Indian economy, particularly the labour market, consumer sentiment and investment patterns.
Vyas sheds light on the trends in unemployment and labour participation rates during the peak of the national lockdown, the phase of economic recovery and the second wave. He discusses the impact of increased informality and decreased female labour force participation and the lessons learned from the first wave of COVID-19. Further, he underscores the impact of the second wave on consumer sentiment and what the government must do to revive the economy. Finally, he discusses the need to monitor the economy regularly and ways to strengthen India’s statistical systems.
About the Series
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.
LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH
The State of Working India 2021 report by the Centre for Sustainable Employment (CSE) at the Azim Premji University finds that the pandemic has further increased informality and led to a severe decline in earnings for the majority of workers resulting in a sudden increase in poverty. In particular, the poor, women and younger workers have disproportionately borne the brunt of the pandemic.
To discuss key findings of the report and more, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Amit Basole (Associate Professor of Economics and Head, CSE, Azim Premji University) in this episode of India Speak. Basole sheds light on the trends in employment patterns and the dynamics of informality in India’s labour market prior to the pandemic, to make sense of the slow structural transformation in the economy. He discusses the implications of the differentiated gender dynamics, the move to informality and the loss of income for India’s economy. He further highlights what the policy response should be to the immediate crisis and the lessons that can be learned from it.
About the Series
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.
LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST ECONOMY HEALTH
Unlike last year during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the second wave witnessed the virus making inroads into rural areas of India as well. To discuss this and more, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Abhijit Chowdhury (Chief Advisor, Liver Foundation, West Bengal) in this episode of India Speak.
Chowdhury discusses what the on-ground realities look like in rural India. He sheds light on how the health system in these areas can be prepared to respond to this unfolding crisis. Finally, he discusses what it will take to achieve universal vaccination for all adults in these areas, advocating for a community-based approach to both treatment and vaccination.
About the Series
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.
LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST HEALTH
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic saw rural parts of India get affected as well, unlike the previous year during the first wave. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Anurag Behar (Chief Executive Officer, Azim Premji Foundation) to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in the hinterlands. How are people in those areas responding to the pandemic? What are the economic consequences beyond just the health consequences they face?
Behar walks us through his experiences over the last few months visiting different parts of the country that were ravaged by the virus. He sheds light on the stigma associated with COVID, the challenges of documenting death, and the state of India’s health infrastructure. He further discusses the levels of economic deprivation, condition of hunger, the potential for schools reopening and more. Finally, Behar share’s his perspective on what we need to do now, in advance of a potential third wave.
About the Series
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.
LISTEN TO THE INDIA AND THE PANDEMIC PODCAST SERIES
PODCAST HEALTH
India embarked on its COVID-19 vaccination roll-out in early January prior to the second wave. In this episode of India Speak, Yamini Aiyar (President and Chief Executive, CPR) speaks to Partha Mukhopadhyay (Senior Fellow, CPR) to discuss India’s vaccine policy and guide us through the many bottlenecks, confusions, and successes we have encountered in the last few months. Why didn’t India start vaccinating earlier? How did the policy evolve once the second wave hit?
Mukhopadhyay who has been closely tracking the vaccine policy walks us through the different phases of the vaccine strategy across the country. He sheds light on the many inequities of the policy, the state of private supply, the role of the Supreme Court, the Centre-State dynamic and more. He further discusses how the digital inequity was built in with the CoWIN app from an economic, linguistic, and spatial standpoint. Finally, Mukhopadhyay share’s his perspective of where we are today vis-a-vis our goals on achieving universal vaccination.
About the Series
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic poses serious challenges that need immediate attention. The collapse of an already strained health system, vaccine supply shortage, an unprecedented economic crisis and sharpening inequality, are factors that raise crucial concerns. How must India confront this crisis? The Centre for Policy Research (CPR) brings leading experts to discuss what the country’s response should look like in a new podcast series, India and the Pandemic.
Listen to the audio (above) of the panel discussion on ‘Human Rights, Economic Development, Mega Projects and their Impacts’, where panelists R Sreedhar from Mines, Minerals and People; Namita Wahi from CPR, Natalia Angelo Cabo, from University of Los Andes, Bogota, and Komala Ramachandra from Accountability Counsel discussed the different dimensions of the impacts of development oriented mega projects on the lives and livelihoods of the poorest and most marginalised communities, both in India and Colombia.
The panelists spoke about the direct relation between resource extractions and human rights violations in India; the need for regulatory norms in carrying out environmental and social impact assessments of infrastructure projects; and the role civil society can play in attempting to ensure accountability of multilateral financial institutions that finance such projects at the cost of human rights.
FULL VIDEO OF LECTURE
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS ECONOMY
Watch the full video (above) of the lecture by Aravind Subramanian, where he uses a historical lens to analyse the future trajectory of globalisation, in light of the recent global developments.
In recent years, the international system has witnessed a series of developments which possibly portend tectonic shifts in the global political economy. In this talk, Subramanian examines and contextualises these developments to understand what they mean for the open global system and for India’s role in it.
Arvind Subramanian is the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, on leave from his position as the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He has written on growth, trade, development, institutions, aid, oil, India, Africa, and the World Trade Organisation, and has published widely in academic and other journals.
PART 4 OF A BLOG SERIES BY THE CENTRE FOR POLICY RESEARCH (CPR) AND PRAYAS (ENERGY GROUP)
ENERGY RESEARCH
The series is titled ‘Plugging in: Electricity consumption in Indian Homes’.
Electricity consumption debates, for the most part, focus on high-rise residential and commercial establishments, often ignoring low-income housing. The rationale for this omission is the low level of electricity use in affordable housing, with the assumption that little is at stake from its consideration in national energy and climate debates. This, however, may no longer be true.
As India urbanises, housing has been unable to keep pace. The housing shortage is reported to be near 19 million units, with low-income households accounting for the largest proportion. The government’s ‘Housing for All’ programme aims to fill this gap by providing affordable housing for 20 million households by 2022. This new construction will partly condition future energy use from the provision of basic services, with increased access to electricity and commercial appliance markets. In this post, we examine the most basic use of electricity within affordable homes – lighting.
Lighting forms a large share of electricity services availed by low-income homes and consequently the electricity bill. Technologically, LED bulbs provide the largest reduction in lighting electricity consumption, without reducing the amount of light provided, and with a lifespan that is up to 25 times that of an ordinary bulb. However, LED bulbs cost more, which can deter the willingness of households to pay. As described in this series’ previous post, the government’s UJALA scheme has increased the use of LEDs by bringing down costs and increasing awareness. However, the programme’s impacts on low income households, those with the potential for maximum benefits, are not yet clear.
Are lower income households purchasing technologically advanced LED bulbs? We conducted a survey in 2017, about a year after the launch of the UJALA scheme, in Rajkot, Gujarat to examine lighting services in low-income homes. This is part of an ongoing study on energy use in low income urban households under the CapaCITIES project. We find LED penetration in the sample surveyed is remarkably high at 63% of all bulbs (Figure 1).
Figure 1: LED penetration in the affordable housing sample (stock level)
Source: Rajkot affordable housing energy survey (Khosla et al., in preparation)
Household assets and LED penetration
To understand this high rate of LED use, we categorise results according to the three types of government affordable housing: BSUP or Basic Services for the Urban Poor (built 2007 onwards); EWS or Economically Weaker Sections; and LIG or Low Income Groups housing (EWS and LIG are built under the Housing for All programme, 2015 onwards) (Figure 2). The categories broadly correlate to income – BSUP residents, on average, being the poorest in the sample, and LIG, the best off.
Figure 2: Household LED penetration rates
Source: Rajkot affordable housing energy survey (Khosla et al., in preparation)
Figure 2 shows that the widespread use of LEDs is especially true for EWS and LIG categories, with more than 90% having at least one LED. Tube lights, CFLs, and incandescent bulbs on the other hand have lower penetration rates in these homes. Further, homes are buying more than one LED. The mode number of LEDs in a EWS home is three, and in LIG homes is five. This is within the number provided under the UJALA scheme in Rajkot, which is up to 10 subsidised LEDs per home at Rs. 80 per 9W bulb.
We also find that LED ownership, standardised for home sizes, is correlated with household assets or their ability to consume (Figure 3). Richer homes buy more LEDs, though a degree of incandescent bulbs persist in the system. And while Figures 2 and 3 show a strikingly high rate of LED use, they also show that not all homes have made this transition. Specifically, BSUP homes – which are of the lowest-income of the three categories – have about half the LED penetration compared with EWS and LIG homes (Figure 2) and the mode number of LEDs owned in BSUP homes is zero.
igure 3: Lighting ownership across the consumption asset index (standardized for number of rooms)
Source: Rajkot affordable housing energy survey (Khosla et al., in preparation)
Awareness of the LED scheme
Why do some households buy LEDs and others don’t? Is the difference a function of households’ awareness of the LED scheme (Figure 4)?
Figure 4: Awareness rates of the LED and Smart Cities schemes
Source: Rajkot affordable housing energy survey (Khosla et al., in preparation)
Awareness of the LED scheme maps on to the ownership of LED bulbs in housing types. EWS and LIG homes are much more aware about the scheme, and own many more LEDs, while the reverse is true for BSUP. To test if awareness about government schemes was generally high, or whether this was particular to UJALA, we also asked households of their awareness of the Smart City scheme which is well advertised in the city. Less than 1% of households reported awareness of this flagship city scheme – compared with high awareness of UJALA.
At the same time, it is not that all households know about the LED scheme – especially not the poorer BSUP homes. We find from discussions with residents that the most successful scheme awareness measure was the information that persons (predominantly men) got at the local utility bill payment centre. Bill payers could purchase LEDs at the payment centre itself, including with no upfront cost and monthly instalments, an option available by a third of the purchasers as per scheme representatives. Learning about a money saving scheme at the point of bill payment worked well to motivate participation. In addition, media campaigns for the scheme were important for those who spent time watching TV or listening to the radio, especially women. However, homes with different circumstances, such as in the lower income BSUP homes – where electricity connections and payment structures could be informal; the radio and TV were used less; and bills were paid by younger family members because of multiple jobs – did not benefit similarly. In the next round of LED deployment, unpacking these differences in scheme awareness will be important to influence path dependent lighting use patterns.
In the next post, we move from lighting to appliances and examine the efficiency impacts from India’s standards and labeling programmes.
This piece is authored by Radhika Khosla and Ankit Bhardwaj at the Centre for Policy Research.
This blog series is also available on the Prayas website here.
IN CONVERSATION WITH NEELANJAN SIRCAR, BHANU JOSHI AND ASHISH RANJAN
ELECTION STUDIES POLITICS
CPR researchers Neelanjan Sircar, Bhanu Joshi, and Ashish Ranjan did extensive field work in Assam and Bengal during the elections, and shared their insights on Upper Assam and Barak Valley; the Muslim vote in Assam; and on the Poriborton (change) brought about by Mamata Banerjee in Bengal.
Drawing on their field experience over the past couple of months, they share below their thoughts on the big wins for the BJP in Assam and the TMC in Bengal.
What are your thoughts on the TMC and Mamata Banerjee’s landslide victory in Bengal?
Neelanjan: The Left-Congress Alliance has been left in a very bad shape, and they will have to re-assess everything. To begin with they need to find a state level neta (leader) who resonates with the people, and identify a major gap that the TMC is not addressing. The problem was they had no real campaign issue this time. Interestingly, the Congress won many more seats than the Left, which has officially reduced the Left to the third party, despite it having a larger vote share.
Bhanu: In the absence of a political script for the Left-Congress Alliance, what we saw clearly was that rural Bengal was backing Mamata, and the Left had completely lost the rural connect. They will have to introspect and seriously think about how to rebuild this connect.
What this victory means for Mamata Banerjee is that she will have a strengthened position in the Rajya Sabha, and can negotiate more effectively with the Centre to mend the flagging finances of Bengal.
Ashish: Mamata Banerjee will also have to focus on the creation of new jobs, which is a huge demand, or things will be difficult in Bengal, going forward.
Neelanajan: Mamata’s ground-level control is crucial to her ability to deliver on promises, like roads. At the same, this same control has yielded a significant amount of fear and violence. This was evident during the election season. There is a real concern about this spinning out of control. It is an open question whether she can control it or not, but she must be wary of the possibility of the situation going awry, as it did for the Left.
Ashish: Due to her style of operating, which runs on her charismatic authority, Mamata Banerjee does not have an organisational structure, unlike the Left. If she cannot restrict goons in her party, either the cadre will rebel or leave the party. This would make things very difficult for her in 2021.
Thank you for those insights on what TMC’s victory means for Bengal. What are your thoughts on the BJP’s victory in Assam?
Bhanu: Assam is a very complex state, but the way it has voted decisively goes to show that the binaries we create to understand the political contexts no longer hold. The theory of vote-bank politics does not work, Muslims are no longer a vote-bank. Out of the 49 constituencies in districts with more than 50% Muslim population, 15 have voted for the BJP, and the rest are divided among the other parties. There is some complexity in the methodology but could we have thought five years ago that BJP would be ruling two states—Jammu and Kashmir and Assam—with the highest Muslim population? No.
Today, people are voting for development, and the BJP ran a much better campaign on the ground in Assam, focused on developmental issues. This shows that when political parties plan elections, they need to be very prepared because they are reaching out to a very sophisticated voter.
Ashish: Now that the BJP has come to power, it will be interesting to see how they manage the Bangladeshi Muslim migrant issue, which they have been ideologically opposed to.
Neelanjan: We have looked at three Eastern states so far, Bihar, Assam, and Bengal, and it is clear that the defining narrative has been of development—of a certain sort. Development that is extremely visible, tangible, and this has brought a new dimension back into politics. It indicates a certain kind of accountability that the voter now demands of the party in power, and this is a very positive trend, not just for the states, but for India as a whole.
STATEMENT
January 17th, 2024
On 10th January 2024, CPR received a notice from the Ministry of Home Affairs cancelling its FCRA status. The basis of this decision is incomprehensible and disproportionate, and some of the reasons given challenge the very basis of the functioning of a research institution. This includes the publication on our website of policy reports emanating from our research being equated with current affairs programming.
During the tenure of our suspension, we sought and obtained interim redress from the honourable Delhi High Court and will continue to seek recourse in all avenues possible.
This cancellation comes after a decision to suspend the FCRA status in February 2023. These actions followed an Income Tax “survey” that took place in September 2022. The actions have had a debilitating impact on the institution’s ability to function by choking all sources of funding. This has undermined the institution’s ability to pursue its well established objective of producing high quality, globally recognised research on policy matters, which it has been recognised for over its 50 years’ existence. During this time the institution has been home to some of the country’s most distinguished academics, diplomats and policymakers.
CPR firmly reiterates that it is in complete compliance with the law, and has been cooperating fully and exhaustively at every step of the process. We remain steadfast in our belief that this matter will be resolved in line with constitutional values and guarantees.
