Author: cprindia

AN AUDIO RECORDING FROM THE GROUND DISSECTING FIRST PHASE OF THE POLLS
ELECTION STUDIES POLITICS

As upper Assam and Barak valley go to polls in the first phase (April 4) in the state, CPR researchers Bhanu Joshi and Ashish Ranjan unpack the trends; the context; the history; and the factors that matter in the audio recording (above).

Based on their extensive ongoing field work, they analyse what is at stake, and in the (likely) future of the three main parties: the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

For a full transcript of the audio recording, click here.

PART 7 OF A BLOG SERIES BY THE CENTRE FOR POLICY RESEARCH (CPR) AND PRAYAS (ENERGY GROUP)
ENERGY RESEARCH

The series is titled ‘Plugging in: Electricity consumption in Indian Homes’.

Managing India’s urban transitions is a significant challenge, one that is further complicated by the need to address their energy implications. This burden is particularly relevant to the National Capital Region (NCR), with Delhi being among the highest residential electricity consuming areas in India. Yet, in spite of the scale of current and future residential electricity use, an understanding of Delhi and the NCR’s household consumption patterns and their drivers is limited. In this post, we examine electricity demand in the NCR, which comprises Delhi, much of Haryana, and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
The NCR covers approximately 130 cities and towns, a land area of 22,500 square miles, and has an urban population of over 30 million that is growing at about 20% per decade. In order to capture effects that are representative of this large population, we use a detailed sampling method that covers about 5500 households. The sample was portioned with approximately 61% in Delhi, 23% in Uttar Pradesh, 13% in Haryana and 3% in Rajasthan. The survey, conducted in 2016-17, is in partnership with the Centre for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania. We focus our findings around three questions:

One, how much electricity does the NCR resident consume?
Two, what are the electricity services that households in the NCR most consume?
Three, how is the ownership of cooling appliances changing with increasing incomes and the ability of households to consume more?
How much electricity does the NCR resident consume?

To understand the NCR’s electricity use on a per capita basis, we used the household electricity bill amount, local tariff rates, and the number of people within that household. We compared this number with recent per capita numbers from the literature for Delhi and India (Figure 1). We also compared the estimates with the USA and China to demonstrate the different contexts of developed and developing countries.

Figure 1: Comparisons of annual per capita residential electricity use
Sources: EIA, 2017; US census bureau, 2017; NBSC, 2017; Niti Aayog, 2017; NCR survey, 2017.
In per capita terms, the US’s per capita residential electricity use is about 25 times that of India’s, and China’s is about three times that of India. Within India, the residential electricity use per person, based on the survey, is broadly consistent with the statistics on Delhi from other sources, suggesting that Delhi is the driver of the NCR’s energy use. The India average, on the other hand, is 3.5 times lower than the NCR number. In purely electricity terms, the NCR resident is the highest consuming in the country – a level that is continuing to rise. As incomes rise across other urban areas, it is likely that they will follow the NCR’s current pattern of high consumption.

What drives the NCR’s high energy use?

To understand the NCR’s high energy use, we examine the energy services sought in the region by assessing the appliances owned by its households (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Appliances penetration rate in the NCR
Source: Electrifying the National Capital Region. Khosla and Sircar (in preparation).
Figure 2 shows that almost every NCR house has a fan, closely followed by a TV. TVs are more ubiquitous than coolers and fridges, in spite of the hot and dry climate and peak summer temperatures of the region. This result aligns with the literature that over the past few decades, TV viewing has become the most important leisure and entertainment activity for middle class families. Washing machines and water purifiers form the next set of appliances used. And while not represented graphically, the data shows that 63% of households in the NCR have a scooter while a smaller 17% have a car.

We contextualise and validate the results in Figure 2 by looking at similar appliance penetration numbers from other studies conducted for the Delhi (not NCR) region (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Comparison of appliance ownerships results for Delhi from different studies
Source: Electrifying the National Capital Region. Khosla and Sircar (in preparation).
Figure 3 is based on three studies from the literature with data collected in 2011, and on the Delhi component (only) of the NCR survey which was undertaken in 2016-17. The Delhi component of the NCR survey consistently shows the largest penetration rates of the appliances (with a small exception for fans), with dramatic differences for fridges and ACs (air conditioners). It is likely that the NCR survey is capturing the rising appliance ownership within the last five years, compared to the earlier studies.

Changing nature of appliance use

As households transition towards higher levels of income, which appliances do they buy first? We apply this question to cooling appliances, which are among the most energy-intensive.

We examine the changing nature of cooling appliance ownership by developing an asset index, which maps appliance ownership with a household’s overall assets or ability to consume. Figure 3 shows the ownership of at least one cooling device per household, ranging from a fan, cooler, and air conditioner, as per the asset index. As seen in Figure 3, almost every home in the NCR, irrespective of where it ranks on the asset index, owns a fan. The most prevalent cooling device, after a fan, is cooler, which households start acquiring as they enter the 4th decile. By contrast, only the top decile (at most) have an air conditioner.

Figure 4: Cooling appliance ownership patterns as a function of the asset index
Source: Electrifying the National Capital Region. Khosla and Sircar (in preparation).
The implications of these cooling appliance ownership patterns could be the most significant in determining the trajectory of the NCR’s, and by analogy other Indian cities’, energy use. Literature and market studies predict that India is at the cusp of an exponential growth in the AC market, and as income levels rise, the AC curve will likely mirror the current cooler curve. The impact on households of this AC penetration will be two-fold: access to cooler indoor environments as the probability of extreme temperatures rises, but also a marked increase in the household electricity bill. Furthermore, the systemic effects of increased electricity demand and greenhouse gas emissions from AC use are predicated to be dramatic.

The yet-to-be invested in cooling appliances, perhaps counterintuitively, offer a potential advantage. Since most energy-intensive purchasing decisions are yet to be made, there is occasion to still shape electricity-consuming preferences and practices. Once invested in, these consumption patterns are difficult to reverse. The current ability of households to pick energy efficient appliances (especially air conditioners), and shape infrastructure that increase thermal comfort without spiking the electricity bill, is a distinctive window to choose alternative pathways. The usefulness of this opportunity, however, will depend on the early decisions that policymakers, industry and households make. In the next, penultimate, post of this series, we​ ​explore​​ broader usage patterns of appliances across India​.

This piece is authored by Radhika Khosla at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi.

This blog series is also available on the Prayas website here.

To subscribe to email updates on the series, click here.

Other posts in this series:

Electricity Consumption in Indian Homes
Trends in India’s Residential Electricity Consumption
India’s LED Lighting Story
Illuminating Affordable Homes
The Efficiency of Appliances
Appliances used in Affordable Housing
Exploring the different uses of household appliances
Role of human behaviour in driving electricity use

FULL VIDEO OF ROUND TABLE ORGANISED BY CPR, THE CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, SCIENCES PO PARIS AND THE AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT
ENERGY RESEARCH

Watch the full video (above) of the first session on ‘Electric Hybrids and Bottom up Approach’ featuring Eric Verdeil, Rémi de Bercegol and Marie-Hélène Zérah, as part of the round table on ‘Emerging Forms of Hybrid Energy Systems in Cities of the Global South’.

Cities in the developing and emerging countries experience many problems of electricity supply, including lack of access for all as well as irregular and load quality issues, which conventional responses such as solely extending the grid cannot fix. Therefore, collective and individual alternatives such as decentralised and hybrid systems evolve. The co-evolutions of local electricity supply systems and urban change create new modalities of supply made up of actors, technical objects, institutions, economic interests, social practices and representations. These forms of supply go beyond the traditional publicly provided services or innovative socio-technical solutions.

Various configurations of hybridisation can emerge ranging from more or less isolated (batteries, inverters, micro-networks) or interconnected solutions (smart grid systems for instance) that have operational and regulatory impacts. It then becomes important to focus future research on the under-studied mutations of these arrangements in urban and urbanising spaces and to evaluate their impact on the future of broader national electricity systems.

The second session on ‘Stakeholder Dialogue on Energy Transition and Indian Cities’ featuring Ankit Bhardwaj, Gaurang Sethi, Santosh Kumar Thakur and Augustin Delisle can be accessed here.

FULL VIDEO OF TALK
HEALTH

Watch the full video (above) of a talk by Olivier Telle, a Senior Visiting Fellow at CPR, on Emerging Infectious Diseases in a City: Dengue and Chikungunya in Delhi, delivered at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi.

The recently released periodic labour force survey (PLFS) for 2019-20 brings to the fore a worrying truth about the Indian economy – an increasing trend in the number of people employed in agriculture. Worryingly the share of workers employed in manufacturing, construction and even some services contracted.

The latest PLFS data suggests that rather induce a transition out of agriculture in to manufacturing, the typical pathway to structural transformation and a process that was all too slow in India to begin with, the Indian economy is now restructuring such that agriculture is emerging as the primary driver of job growth. To put this in perspective, consider the following: Between 2018-2020, India’s total employed labour force went up from 380.57 million in 2018-19 to 426.75 million in 2019-20. Of this, an additional 46.18 million jobs, as many as 32.72 million or 70.9% were created in agriculture. The number of manufacturing and construction workers increased by a mere 1.65 million and 3.58 million, respectively, in 2019-20. What does this mean for the future of agriculture and the economy more broadly?

Unpacking trends

Consider the following facts.

First, labour force participation rate or LFPR. This is defined as the ratio of the country’s labour force, whether employed or unemployed, to its total population. As Chart 1 reveals there has been a significant increase in the LFPR, from 36.9% in 2017-18 and 37.5% in 2018-19 to 40.1% in the 2019-20 PLFS. However, this jump is perceptibly higher for rural than urban India.

Note: Rates are based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period.

Second worker population ratio or WPR. This is the percentage of the country’s population that is actually employed. The WPR, too, has gone up significantly in 2019-20; again this is on account of rising employment in rural India.

Note: Rates are based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period.

With the percentage of employed persons in the population rising, it is natural to also expect a corresponding drop in the ratio of those unemployed. The unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of persons in the country’s labour force that are unemployed (the total labour force, we saw, includes those who are both employed and unemployed). The chart below shows a sharp one percentage point dip in the unemployment rate in 2019-20. Once again, it is rural that has registered a bigger fall than urban.

Note: Rates are based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period.

With rural India emerging as the primary location for job creation, it is inevitable that agriculture is the primary driver. This is visible in the table below which highlights the distribution of workers or employed persons by broad industry/ sector.

Percentage distribution of employed workers

	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20
Agriculture	44.1	42.5	45.6
Manufacturing	12.1	12.1	11.2
Construction	11.7	12.1	11.6
Mining & quarrying	0.4	0.4	0.3
Electricity, water, etc	0.6	0.6	0.6
Trade, hotels & restaurants	12.0	12.6	13.2
Transport*	5.9	5.9	5.6
Other services	13.2	13.8	11.9
TOTAL	100.0	100.0	100.0

Note: Employment is based on usual (principal+subsidiary) economic status during the preceding 365-days reference period; *Includes storage & communications.

It can be seen that the share of workers employed in the agricultural sector has risen to 45.6% in 2019-20, from 42.5% and 44.1% for the preceding two PLFS years. This has been accompanied by the declining percentages of those engaged in manufacturing, construction and most services, barring trade, hotels & restaurants. Importantly, while the country’s rural employed workforce expanded by 35.82 million in 2019-20, over 89% of it was because of agriculture.

Is this trend of rising employment in agriculture reflective of a genuine rural resurgence and is this trend good for the Indian economy?

Through 2019-20, as the Indian economy decelerated, agriculture provided resilient. Agricultural growth stood at 4.3% in 2019-20, which not only surpassed that of overall gross value added (4.1%), but even manufacturing (minus 2.4%) and construction (1%).

One shouldn’t be surprised to see these results being replicated in the next PLFS for 2020-21 as well. Agriculture, we know, was the only sector that grew (by 3.6%) amidst an overall economic contraction (of 6.2%) in 2020-21. There were three main reasons for that – a good monsoon (both 2019 and 2020 were surplus rainfall years), farm-related activities being exempted from lockdown restrictions and stepped-up government procurement of produce. For a more detailed background on this, see our previous note (https://cprindia.org/news/9808).

The questions that really need to be asked is: Can agriculture continue to be the economy’s primary growth driver and job generator and how desirable is this for the rural economy?

The previous Employment and Unemployment Surveys of the National Sample Survey Office (the NSO’s earlier avatar) had shown India’s industry and services sectors to have added about 52 million jobs between 2004-05 and 2011-12. Of that, 25 million was in construction alone, with manufacturing (6 million) and other services (21 million) adding the rest. The 52 million-odd additional employment opportunities helped in pulling away some 37 million Indians from farms. And that, in turn, drove up rural wages, both in nominal and real terms (see chart below).

Note: Nominal wages are simple arithmetic all-India average for rural male labourers across 25 agricultural and non-agricultural occupations; for real wages, the Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers has been used.

Source: Labour Bureau.

We will, in a subsequent note, be pointing out how the growth in non-farm incomes (including in rural areas) from roughly the mid-2000s till around 2013-14 actually gave a huge boost to Indian agriculture. Not only did it generate more demand for farm produce, but also stimulated diet and cropping diversification. Agriculture’s own cause was enabled by the growth of employment and income opportunities outside of agriculture.

The reversal in India’s structural transformation back toward agriculture is undoubtedly an indicator of deep distress in the Indian economy and a fall back to subsistence employment. The policy implications in the short term are significant. Enhanced safety nets through PM-KISAN and MGNREGA, which allows work on farm land for small and marginal farmers, will be critical investments needed to ensure that incomes are protected and basic needs are met. However, without firing other cylinders of the economy, in the long term, the costs of this reversal in India’s structural transformation will be heavy. Any discussion on a post COVID 19 economic revival has to recognize the limits of a growth model where agriculture is re-emerging as the primary employer.

This note, part of the Understanding the Rural Economy series by CPR, has been authored by Harish Damodaran and Yamini Aiyar, with research support from Ragini Rao Munjuluri and Samridhi Agarwal.

Find all previous notes as part of the series here:

• Can rural play “savior” again? Agricultural seasons and COVID-19 waves by Mekhala Krishnamurthy and Harish Damodaran
• How ‘food’ has become the real social safety net in pandemic by Harish Damodaran
• Where is food inflation headed? by Harish Damodaran
• Has MGNREGS Helped the Rural Economy in 2021? by Yamini Aiyar, Avani Kapur and Harish Damodaran
• Agricultural Households and Farming Income: An initial analysis of variations in income from farming and other sources among agricultural households in India by Harish Damodaran, Mekhala Krishnamurthy and Samridhi Agarwal
• Carbohydrates to proteins and back: How dietary and cropping diversification seems to have gone into reverse by Harish Damodaran, Mekhala Krishnamurthy and Samridhi Agarwal.
• Mapping India’s livestock economy by Harish Damodaran and Samridhi Agarwal.
• Unlocking the potential of Ganna Pradesh
• The Future of MSP by Harish Damodaran

FULL VIDEO OF TALK
URBAN GOVERNANCE

Watch the full video of the workshop (above), where Thomas Crowley explores the environmental politics of the Delhi Ridge, a hilly area that cuts through the National Capital Territory.

In this talk, Crowley discusses how the land, was first imagined. He talks about the evolution of the Ridge from the commonly-owned land used for grazing and firewood collection to a state-owned forest area. Crowley’s presentation analyses the shifts in land use over the past many decades, and explores their implications for ecological and social justice in Delhi today.

The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here, and more information about the talk can be found on the event page.

FULL VIDEO OF THE TALK ORGANISED BY THE STATE CAPACITY INITATIVE
ELECTION STUDIES POLITICS

Watch the full video (above) of the talk on ‘Establishing Regulatory Capacity for the Real Estate Sector: The MahaRERA Experience’ featuring Gautam Chatterjee (Chairperson, Maharashtra Real Estate Regulatory Authority) and Deepak Sanan (Senior Visiting Fellow,CPR), organised by the State Capacity Initiative at CPR.

The Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 was enacted by Parliament with the objective of bringing about transparency and financial discipline in the real estate business, and to protect the interests of home buyers. The law mandates states to set up real estate regulatory authorities; developers/builders are required to register projects with this regulatory authority before commencing bookings and sales. Builders are also required to deposit 70% of amounts collected from buyers into an escrow account, to ensure that these funds are used only for the specific project. The objectives of the Act include speedy dispute resolution, curbing the flow of black money, and ensuring timely completion of projects. Progress on the implementation of this law by states is encouraging. So far 29 states have set up regulatory authorities, and 24 have established appellate tribunals. Regulatory authorities of 24 states have set up their websites – which is critical for the implementation of the Act as it mandates online registration. A total of 46,695 real estate projects and 36,823 real estate agents have been registered under the Act across the country.

Maharashtra was the first state to set up its Real Estate Regulatory Authority (MahaRERA). The state has one of the largest real estate markets in India. It reports more than half of all projects registered in the country and most real estate agents.

Gautam Chatterjee is the first and current Chairperson of the Maharashtra Real Estate Regulatory Authority. The talk focused on his experience of establishing regulatory capacity and creating the conditions for transparency and market discipline in a difficult market.

The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.

FULL VIDEO OF DISCUSSION
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

Watch the full video (above) of the discussion between Khin Zaw Win and Nimmi Kurian on the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar. The discussion delves deep into the historical narrative, the complexities of the issue, the challenges it poses, and the possible solutions going forward.

The Rohingya issue has been reduced to a single-issue debate fixated on the security dimension largely concerned with issues of illegal migration, religious radicalisation and terrorism. Despite being intensely debated, the underlying causes and the potential consequences of the crisis are dimly understood.

Khin Zaw Win has decades-long experience as one of the most respected and independent political commentators from Myanmar. He is currently the Director of the Yangon-based Tampadipa Institute and works on policy advocacy and capacity building issues.

Nimmi Kurian is an Associate Professor at Centre for Policy Research and Academic Advisor at the India China Institute, The New School, New York. She is one of the contributors to the India Country Report as part of the Bangladesh China India Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM EC) Joint Study Group, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.

The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.

CPR-TCPD (TRIVEDI CENTRE FOR POLITICAL DATA, ASHOKA UNIVERSITY) DIALOGUES ON INDIAN POLITICS
ELECTION STUDIES POLITICS

Watch the full video (above) of the fifth discussion in the series on the rise of farmers movements in India, featuring Mekhala Krishnamurthy, Harish Damodaran and V M Singh.

As we approach the 2019 general elections, Rural and Agricultural distress is an issue which is likely to dominate the election discourse. Over the last few years, India has seen a significant increase in farmers movements, best exemplified by the ‘Kisan Long March’ which signified the emergence of a new moment in Indian agricultural politics. Election season is therefore likely to see many promises being made to farmers as a response to this new mobilisation.

The talk seeks to unpack the reason behind the emergence of these new farmers movements and understand the nature of the current rural political economy and its likely impact on the elections next year.

Mekhala Krishnamurthy is Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Anthropology, Ashoka University.

Harish Damodaran is National Editor (Rural Affairs and Agriculture) at The Indian Express.

V M Singh is a Supreme Court lawyer and President of the Rashtriya Kisan Mazdoor Party.

The question and answer session that followed can be accessed here.

About the CPR-TCPD Dialogues

This was the fifth event in the CPR-TCPD Dialogues on Indian Politics series, launched in a partnership between Centre for Policy Research and Trivedi Centre for Political Data (TPCD) at Ashoka University. This is a monthly event that brings together academicians, policy and political practitioners, and civil society actors to grapple with important social and political issues in India. It provides a forum for intellectually rigorous, non-partisan commentary to strengthen public discourse on politics in India. In these polarised times, debates on politics in India have tended to be increasingly noisy, blurring the lines between critical engagement and partisan endorsement. This dialogue series is an effort to carve out a space for critical, nuanced engagement to understand the changing dynamics of Indian political parties, the impact of new and emerging social movements and the use of new instruments of mobilisation in our polity.

FULL AUDIO RECORDING
INDIA-PAKISTAN SOUTH ASIA

Listen to the full talk (above) by the author, Dr Venkat Dhulipala, where he discusses his book Creating a New Medina: State, Power, Islam and the Quest for Pakistan in Late Colonial North India.

The book examines how the idea of Pakistan was first articulated – not as a vague idea that serendipitously emerged as a nation-state, but as a sovereign Islamic State, referred to by some as ‘a new Medina’.